Regional characteristics of influenza seasonality patterns in mainland China, 2005-2017: a statistical modeling study
Objectives: To quantify the seasonal and antigenic characteristics of influenza to help understand influenza activity and inform vaccine recommendations. Methods: We employed a generalized linear model with harmonic terms to quantify the seasonal pattern of influenza in China from 2005-2017, includi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-03-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006683 |
| _version_ | 1797897317895897088 |
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| author | Xiaowei Deng Zhiyuan Chen Zeyao Zhao Junbo Chen Mei Li Juan Yang Hongjie Yu |
| author_facet | Xiaowei Deng Zhiyuan Chen Zeyao Zhao Junbo Chen Mei Li Juan Yang Hongjie Yu |
| author_sort | Xiaowei Deng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives: To quantify the seasonal and antigenic characteristics of influenza to help understand influenza activity and inform vaccine recommendations. Methods: We employed a generalized linear model with harmonic terms to quantify the seasonal pattern of influenza in China from 2005-2017, including amplitude (circulatory intensity), semiannual periodicity (given two peaks a year), annual peak time, and epidemic duration. The antigenic differences were distinguished as antigenic similarity between 2009 and 2020. We categorized regions above 33° N, between 27° N and 33° N, and below 27° N as the north, central, and south regions, respectively. Results: We estimated that the amplitude in the north region (median: 0.019, 95% CI: 0.018-0.021) was significantly higher than that in the central region (median: 0.011, 95% CI: 0.01-0.012, P <0.001) and south region (median: 0.008, 95% CI: 0.007-0.008, P <0.001) for influenza A virus subtype H3N2 (A/H3N2). The A/H3N2 in the central region had a semiannual periodicity (median: 0.548, 95% CI: 0.517-0.577), while no semiannual pattern was found in other regions or subtypes/lineages. The antigenic similarity was low (below 50% in the 2009-2010, 2014-2015, 2016-2018, and 2019-2020 seasons) for A/H3N2. Conclusion: Our study depicted the seasonal pattern differences and antigenic differences of influenza in China, which provides information for vaccination strategies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T07:56:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a6776c1561a84f6aae012f43f84ef724 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1201-9712 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T07:56:39Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-a6776c1561a84f6aae012f43f84ef7242023-02-23T04:30:23ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122023-03-011289197Regional characteristics of influenza seasonality patterns in mainland China, 2005-2017: a statistical modeling studyXiaowei Deng0Zhiyuan Chen1Zeyao Zhao2Junbo Chen3Mei Li4Juan Yang5Hongjie Yu6Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China; Corresponding author: Prof Hongjie Yu. Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, ChinaObjectives: To quantify the seasonal and antigenic characteristics of influenza to help understand influenza activity and inform vaccine recommendations. Methods: We employed a generalized linear model with harmonic terms to quantify the seasonal pattern of influenza in China from 2005-2017, including amplitude (circulatory intensity), semiannual periodicity (given two peaks a year), annual peak time, and epidemic duration. The antigenic differences were distinguished as antigenic similarity between 2009 and 2020. We categorized regions above 33° N, between 27° N and 33° N, and below 27° N as the north, central, and south regions, respectively. Results: We estimated that the amplitude in the north region (median: 0.019, 95% CI: 0.018-0.021) was significantly higher than that in the central region (median: 0.011, 95% CI: 0.01-0.012, P <0.001) and south region (median: 0.008, 95% CI: 0.007-0.008, P <0.001) for influenza A virus subtype H3N2 (A/H3N2). The A/H3N2 in the central region had a semiannual periodicity (median: 0.548, 95% CI: 0.517-0.577), while no semiannual pattern was found in other regions or subtypes/lineages. The antigenic similarity was low (below 50% in the 2009-2010, 2014-2015, 2016-2018, and 2019-2020 seasons) for A/H3N2. Conclusion: Our study depicted the seasonal pattern differences and antigenic differences of influenza in China, which provides information for vaccination strategies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006683Seasonal influenzaSeasonalityVaccinationChina |
| spellingShingle | Xiaowei Deng Zhiyuan Chen Zeyao Zhao Junbo Chen Mei Li Juan Yang Hongjie Yu Regional characteristics of influenza seasonality patterns in mainland China, 2005-2017: a statistical modeling study International Journal of Infectious Diseases Seasonal influenza Seasonality Vaccination China |
| title | Regional characteristics of influenza seasonality patterns in mainland China, 2005-2017: a statistical modeling study |
| title_full | Regional characteristics of influenza seasonality patterns in mainland China, 2005-2017: a statistical modeling study |
| title_fullStr | Regional characteristics of influenza seasonality patterns in mainland China, 2005-2017: a statistical modeling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regional characteristics of influenza seasonality patterns in mainland China, 2005-2017: a statistical modeling study |
| title_short | Regional characteristics of influenza seasonality patterns in mainland China, 2005-2017: a statistical modeling study |
| title_sort | regional characteristics of influenza seasonality patterns in mainland china 2005 2017 a statistical modeling study |
| topic | Seasonal influenza Seasonality Vaccination China |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971222006683 |
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