A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model projections for hydrological impacts in China
Global climate model (GCM) outputs from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were widely used to investigate climate change impacts last 10 years. It is important to know whether Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is more reliable than CMIP5. Number of studies c...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Hydrology Research |
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| Online Access: | http://hr.iwaponline.com/content/54/3/330 |
| _version_ | 1797851255151788032 |
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| author | Yawen Lei Jie Chen Lihua Xiong |
| author_facet | Yawen Lei Jie Chen Lihua Xiong |
| author_sort | Yawen Lei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global climate model (GCM) outputs from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were widely used to investigate climate change impacts last 10 years. It is important to know whether Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is more reliable than CMIP5. Number of studies compared GCMs from two CMIPs in simulating climate variables, but they are not in the field of hydrology for large quantities of watersheds. The objective of this study is to compare CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model projections in projecting hydrological changes between future (2071–2100) and historical (1976–2005) periods and inter-model variability of hydrological impacts for the future period over 343 catchments in China's mainland. The results show that the GCMs in CMIP6 show more increase in daily mean temperature and mean annual precipitation. However, GCMs in CMIP6 and CMIP5 show similar increases in mean and peak streamflow. Moreover, GCMs in CMIP6 show less inter-model variability for streamflow in southern and northeastern China, but more in central China, which is consistent to that for precipitation after bias correction. Overall, this comparison provides the consistency of future change and uncertainty in predicted streamflow with climate simulations, which bring confidence for hydrological impact studies using CMIP6.
HIGHLIGHTS
GCMs in CMIP6 under SSP5-85 show more increase in temperature and precipitation than those in CMIP5 under RCP8.5 in China.;
GCMs in CMIP6 and CMIP5 show similar increases in mean and peak streamflow.;
GCMs in CMIP6 show less inter-model variability for mean and peak flow in southern and northeastern China, but more in central China.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T19:14:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a69118ea583f4e869fb09be451534cec |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1998-9563 2224-7955 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T19:14:54Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-a69118ea583f4e869fb09be451534cec2023-04-06T07:30:07ZengIWA PublishingHydrology Research1998-95632224-79552023-03-0154333034710.2166/nh.2023.108108A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model projections for hydrological impacts in ChinaYawen Lei0Jie Chen1Lihua Xiong2 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China Global climate model (GCM) outputs from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were widely used to investigate climate change impacts last 10 years. It is important to know whether Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is more reliable than CMIP5. Number of studies compared GCMs from two CMIPs in simulating climate variables, but they are not in the field of hydrology for large quantities of watersheds. The objective of this study is to compare CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model projections in projecting hydrological changes between future (2071–2100) and historical (1976–2005) periods and inter-model variability of hydrological impacts for the future period over 343 catchments in China's mainland. The results show that the GCMs in CMIP6 show more increase in daily mean temperature and mean annual precipitation. However, GCMs in CMIP6 and CMIP5 show similar increases in mean and peak streamflow. Moreover, GCMs in CMIP6 show less inter-model variability for streamflow in southern and northeastern China, but more in central China, which is consistent to that for precipitation after bias correction. Overall, this comparison provides the consistency of future change and uncertainty in predicted streamflow with climate simulations, which bring confidence for hydrological impact studies using CMIP6. HIGHLIGHTS GCMs in CMIP6 under SSP5-85 show more increase in temperature and precipitation than those in CMIP5 under RCP8.5 in China.; GCMs in CMIP6 and CMIP5 show similar increases in mean and peak streamflow.; GCMs in CMIP6 show less inter-model variability for mean and peak flow in southern and northeastern China, but more in central China.;http://hr.iwaponline.com/content/54/3/330climate changecmip5cmip6gcmhydrological impactsvariability |
| spellingShingle | Yawen Lei Jie Chen Lihua Xiong A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model projections for hydrological impacts in China Hydrology Research climate change cmip5 cmip6 gcm hydrological impacts variability |
| title | A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model projections for hydrological impacts in China |
| title_full | A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model projections for hydrological impacts in China |
| title_fullStr | A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model projections for hydrological impacts in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model projections for hydrological impacts in China |
| title_short | A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model projections for hydrological impacts in China |
| title_sort | comparison of cmip5 and cmip6 climate model projections for hydrological impacts in china |
| topic | climate change cmip5 cmip6 gcm hydrological impacts variability |
| url | http://hr.iwaponline.com/content/54/3/330 |
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