Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria
A mathematical model is designed and used to study the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The model, which was rigorously analysed and parametrized using COVID-19 data published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess the community-wide impact of v...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2020369?viewType=HTML |
| _version_ | 1819011529315450880 |
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| author | Enahoro A. Iboi Oluwaseun Sharomi Calistus N. Ngonghala Abba B. Gumel |
| author_facet | Enahoro A. Iboi Oluwaseun Sharomi Calistus N. Ngonghala Abba B. Gumel |
| author_sort | Enahoro A. Iboi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A mathematical model is designed and used to study the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The model, which was rigorously analysed and parametrized using COVID-19 data published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess the community-wide impact of various control and mitigation strategies in some jurisdictions within Nigeria (notably the states of Kano and Lagos, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja). Numerical simulations of the model showed that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled in Nigeria using moderate levels of social-distancing strategy in the jurisdictions and in the entire nation. Although the use of face masks in public can significantly reduce COVID-19 in Nigeria, its use, as a sole intervention strategy, may fail to lead to a substantial reduction in disease burden. Such substantial reduction is feasible in the jurisdictions (and the entire Nigerian nation) if the public face mask use strategy is complemented with a social-distancing strategy. The community lockdown measures implemented in Nigeria on March 30, 2020 need to be maintained for at least three to four months to lead to the effective containment of COVID-19 outbreaks in the country. Relaxing, or fully lifting, the lockdown measures sooner, in an effort to re-open the economy or the country, may trigger a deadly second wave of the pandemic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T01:29:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a6b51f691e9641c1a2cecd8b12aead96 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T01:29:36Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-a6b51f691e9641c1a2cecd8b12aead962022-12-21T19:20:24ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182020-10-011767192722010.3934/mbe.2020369Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in NigeriaEnahoro A. Iboi 0Oluwaseun Sharomi1Calistus N. Ngonghala2Abba B. Gumel 31. Department of Mathematics, Spelman College, Atlanta, Georgia, 30314, USA2. Complete HEOR Solutions, North Wales, PA, USA3. Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA4. School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA 5. Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South AfricaA mathematical model is designed and used to study the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The model, which was rigorously analysed and parametrized using COVID-19 data published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess the community-wide impact of various control and mitigation strategies in some jurisdictions within Nigeria (notably the states of Kano and Lagos, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja). Numerical simulations of the model showed that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled in Nigeria using moderate levels of social-distancing strategy in the jurisdictions and in the entire nation. Although the use of face masks in public can significantly reduce COVID-19 in Nigeria, its use, as a sole intervention strategy, may fail to lead to a substantial reduction in disease burden. Such substantial reduction is feasible in the jurisdictions (and the entire Nigerian nation) if the public face mask use strategy is complemented with a social-distancing strategy. The community lockdown measures implemented in Nigeria on March 30, 2020 need to be maintained for at least three to four months to lead to the effective containment of COVID-19 outbreaks in the country. Relaxing, or fully lifting, the lockdown measures sooner, in an effort to re-open the economy or the country, may trigger a deadly second wave of the pandemic.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2020369?viewType=HTMLcovid-19sars-cov-2social-distancinglockdownnon-pharmaceutical interventions (npis) |
| spellingShingle | Enahoro A. Iboi Oluwaseun Sharomi Calistus N. Ngonghala Abba B. Gumel Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering covid-19 sars-cov-2 social-distancing lockdown non-pharmaceutical interventions (npis) |
| title | Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria |
| title_full | Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria |
| title_short | Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria |
| title_sort | mathematical modeling and analysis of covid 19 pandemic in nigeria |
| topic | covid-19 sars-cov-2 social-distancing lockdown non-pharmaceutical interventions (npis) |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2020369?viewType=HTML |
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