Data analysis and forecasting of tourism development in Ukraine
The article contains a thorough study of tourist flows in Ukraine during the last 18 years. The tendencies of the development of international tourism during the last 20 years and their influence on the development of tourism in Ukraine have been explored. Particular attention is paid to the analysi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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LLC "CPC "Business Perspectives"
2018-12-01
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| Series: | Innovative Marketing |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/11317/IM_2018_04_Roskladka.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819050089101918208 |
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| author | Andrii Roskladka Nataliia Roskladka Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi Ganna Kharlamova Mehmet Kiziloglu |
| author_facet | Andrii Roskladka Nataliia Roskladka Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi Ganna Kharlamova Mehmet Kiziloglu |
| author_sort | Andrii Roskladka |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The article contains a thorough study of tourist flows in Ukraine during the last 18 years. The tendencies of the development of international tourism during the last 20 years and their influence on the development of tourism in Ukraine have been explored. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of inbound tourist flows. The negative dynamics of tourist arrivals in Ukraine led to the construction of a forecast model for the development of this component of tourism activity with the aim of an objective assessment of future tourist arrivals and the adoption of effective management decisions on improving the situation of tourism in Ukraine. Tourist destinations today are rigorously competing for consumer interest in tourism products. In view of this, tourist facilities operating in the tourist market place particular emphasis on the elements of tourism marketing (product, price, distribution, advertising, human capital, actual data, processes).Modern forecasting systems and methods have been used to build a forecast of tourism development in Ukraine and, in particular, arrivals of foreign tourists to Ukraine. An analytical forecasting model was built by the system of CurveExpert in the form of a polynomial function, analytical forecasting models were built by the system of computer algebra Maple in the form of piecewise linear and piecewise polynomial functions. Numerical prediction models in the MathCAD system using different types of spline-interpolation and predictive functions have been constructed. A comparative analysis of the results of forecasting in different systems was carried out. The results of the comparative analysis give confidence in the development of inbound tourism in Ukraine. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T11:42:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a6c51e53666e46d1aeb25fe0a4f45b83 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1814-2427 1816-6326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T11:42:30Z |
| publishDate | 2018-12-01 |
| publisher | LLC "CPC "Business Perspectives" |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Innovative Marketing |
| spelling | doaj.art-a6c51e53666e46d1aeb25fe0a4f45b832022-12-21T19:05:15ZengLLC "CPC "Business Perspectives"Innovative Marketing1814-24271816-63262018-12-01144193310.21511/im.14(4).2018.0211317Data analysis and forecasting of tourism development in UkraineAndrii Roskladka0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1297-377XNataliia Roskladka1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7333-4050Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2040-8762Ganna Kharlamova3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3614-712XMehmet Kiziloglu4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6098-3980Doctor at Economics, Professor, Head of the Department of Cybernetics and Systems Analysis, Kyiv National University of Trade and EconomicsDoctor at Economics, Professor of Department of Tourism and Recreation, Kyiv National University of Trade and EconomicsDoctor of Economics, Professor, Economics and Economic Theory Department, Ternopil National Economic UniversityPh.D., Associate Professor, Economic Cybernetics Department, Taras Shevchenko National University of KyivPhD at Business Management, Lecturer of Department of Management and Organization, Pamukkale UniversityThe article contains a thorough study of tourist flows in Ukraine during the last 18 years. The tendencies of the development of international tourism during the last 20 years and their influence on the development of tourism in Ukraine have been explored. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of inbound tourist flows. The negative dynamics of tourist arrivals in Ukraine led to the construction of a forecast model for the development of this component of tourism activity with the aim of an objective assessment of future tourist arrivals and the adoption of effective management decisions on improving the situation of tourism in Ukraine. Tourist destinations today are rigorously competing for consumer interest in tourism products. In view of this, tourist facilities operating in the tourist market place particular emphasis on the elements of tourism marketing (product, price, distribution, advertising, human capital, actual data, processes).Modern forecasting systems and methods have been used to build a forecast of tourism development in Ukraine and, in particular, arrivals of foreign tourists to Ukraine. An analytical forecasting model was built by the system of CurveExpert in the form of a polynomial function, analytical forecasting models were built by the system of computer algebra Maple in the form of piecewise linear and piecewise polynomial functions. Numerical prediction models in the MathCAD system using different types of spline-interpolation and predictive functions have been constructed. A comparative analysis of the results of forecasting in different systems was carried out. The results of the comparative analysis give confidence in the development of inbound tourism in Ukraine.https://businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/11317/IM_2018_04_Roskladka.pdfdata analysisforecastingtourismtourism development in Ukrainetourism managementtourist flows |
| spellingShingle | Andrii Roskladka Nataliia Roskladka Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi Ganna Kharlamova Mehmet Kiziloglu Data analysis and forecasting of tourism development in Ukraine Innovative Marketing data analysis forecasting tourism tourism development in Ukraine tourism management tourist flows |
| title | Data analysis and forecasting of tourism development in Ukraine |
| title_full | Data analysis and forecasting of tourism development in Ukraine |
| title_fullStr | Data analysis and forecasting of tourism development in Ukraine |
| title_full_unstemmed | Data analysis and forecasting of tourism development in Ukraine |
| title_short | Data analysis and forecasting of tourism development in Ukraine |
| title_sort | data analysis and forecasting of tourism development in ukraine |
| topic | data analysis forecasting tourism tourism development in Ukraine tourism management tourist flows |
| url | https://businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/11317/IM_2018_04_Roskladka.pdf |
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