Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in Spain
Xylotrechus arvicola is an emerging grape pest that generates serious sanitary problems in vineyards and is currently expanding its range throughout Spain. The increasing prevalence of this pest in Spanish vineyards has been detected since 1990. In this study, the relationship between the climate an...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Horticultural Science |
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| Online Access: | https://hortsci.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/hor-202101-0005_modelling-the-potential-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-distribution-of-xylotrechus-arvicola-in-spain.php |
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| author | Ángel M. Felicísimo Ignacio Armendáriz Virginia Alberdi |
| author_facet | Ángel M. Felicísimo Ignacio Armendáriz Virginia Alberdi |
| author_sort | Ángel M. Felicísimo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Xylotrechus arvicola is an emerging grape pest that generates serious sanitary problems in vineyards and is currently expanding its range throughout Spain. The increasing prevalence of this pest in Spanish vineyards has been detected since 1990. In this study, the relationship between the climate and the actual distribution of the beetle was analysed, as well as how this distribution might change in the future according to several climate change models. The methodology was based on predictive models (SDM; species distribution modelling) using climate variables as explanatory factors, although the relationships were not necessarily causal. Maxent was used as the SDM method. The current climatic niche was calculated, and the actual potential distribution area was estimated. The relationships between the climate variables and the species probability of the presence were projected to various future climate change scenarios. The main conclusions reached were that climate change will favour the expansion of X. arvicola and that the potential infestation zones will be extended significantly. Although the results, because they were based on hypothetical climate frameworks that are under constant revision, were not conclusive, they should be taken into consideration when defining future strategies in the wine industry. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T08:22:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a6febc4ef8944fbf8c525ee11a329b18 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0862-867X 1805-9333 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T08:22:00Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Horticultural Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-a6febc4ef8944fbf8c525ee11a329b182023-02-23T03:35:31ZengCzech Academy of Agricultural SciencesHorticultural Science0862-867X1805-93332021-03-01481384610.17221/85/2019-HORTSCIhor-202101-0005Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in SpainÁngel M. Felicísimo0Ignacio Armendáriz1Virginia Alberdi2Departamento de Expresión Gráfica. Centro Universitario de Mérida, Universidad de Extremadura, Mérida, SpainInstituto Agropecuario Superior Andino (IASA), Sangolquí, EcuadorDepartamento de Expresión Gráfica, Centro Universitario de Mérida, Universidad de Extremadura, Mérida, SpainXylotrechus arvicola is an emerging grape pest that generates serious sanitary problems in vineyards and is currently expanding its range throughout Spain. The increasing prevalence of this pest in Spanish vineyards has been detected since 1990. In this study, the relationship between the climate and the actual distribution of the beetle was analysed, as well as how this distribution might change in the future according to several climate change models. The methodology was based on predictive models (SDM; species distribution modelling) using climate variables as explanatory factors, although the relationships were not necessarily causal. Maxent was used as the SDM method. The current climatic niche was calculated, and the actual potential distribution area was estimated. The relationships between the climate variables and the species probability of the presence were projected to various future climate change scenarios. The main conclusions reached were that climate change will favour the expansion of X. arvicola and that the potential infestation zones will be extended significantly. Although the results, because they were based on hypothetical climate frameworks that are under constant revision, were not conclusive, they should be taken into consideration when defining future strategies in the wine industry.https://hortsci.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/hor-202101-0005_modelling-the-potential-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-distribution-of-xylotrechus-arvicola-in-spain.phpspecies distribution modelsvineyardpest mappingmaximum entropy |
| spellingShingle | Ángel M. Felicísimo Ignacio Armendáriz Virginia Alberdi Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in Spain Horticultural Science species distribution models vineyard pest mapping maximum entropy |
| title | Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in Spain |
| title_full | Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in Spain |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in Spain |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in Spain |
| title_short | Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in Spain |
| title_sort | modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of xylotrechus arvicola in spain |
| topic | species distribution models vineyard pest mapping maximum entropy |
| url | https://hortsci.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/hor-202101-0005_modelling-the-potential-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-distribution-of-xylotrechus-arvicola-in-spain.php |
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