PRICE FORECASTING OF STRATEGIC FOOD COMMODITIES IN VARIOUS MARKETS IN MALANG REGENCY: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ARMA-GARCH MODEL
Fluctuations in food prices can trigger vulnerability, disrupting people's access to food. This study aims to predict the prices of strategic food commodities: rice, corn, shallots, garlic, cayenne pepper, large chilies, chicken meat, chicken eggs, beef, cooking oil, and granulated sugar at the...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of Brawijaya
2023-04-01
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| Series: | AGRISE |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://agrise.ub.ac.id/index.php/agrise/article/view/1090 |
| _version_ | 1827930205105160192 |
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| author | Sujarwo Sujarwo Fitrotul Laili |
| author_facet | Sujarwo Sujarwo Fitrotul Laili |
| author_sort | Sujarwo Sujarwo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Fluctuations in food prices can trigger vulnerability, disrupting people's access to food. This study aims to predict the prices of strategic food commodities: rice, corn, shallots, garlic, cayenne pepper, large chilies, chicken meat, chicken eggs, beef, cooking oil, and granulated sugar at the wholesaler level in the district. Poor. The research method used is the ARMA-GARCH forecasting method. Price forecasting carried out on all strategic food commodities in Malang Regency shows a fluctuating pattern with a tendency for price increases, with an average change increasing gradually in each period. The causality relationship in various markets about price changes in strategic food commodities in Malang Regency shows a unidirectional and two-way causality pattern. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T06:32:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a7190dd746454edc9ba42b692ed49620 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1412-1425 2252-6757 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T06:32:10Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | University of Brawijaya |
| record_format | Article |
| series | AGRISE |
| spelling | doaj.art-a7190dd746454edc9ba42b692ed496202023-06-09T09:04:42ZengUniversity of BrawijayaAGRISE1412-14252252-67572023-04-0123219921610.21776/ub.agrise.2023.023.2.91050PRICE FORECASTING OF STRATEGIC FOOD COMMODITIES IN VARIOUS MARKETS IN MALANG REGENCY: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ARMA-GARCH MODELSujarwo Sujarwo0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3035-6561Fitrotul Laili1Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics, Brawijaya UniversityDepartment of Agricultural Socio-Economics, Brawijaya UniversityFluctuations in food prices can trigger vulnerability, disrupting people's access to food. This study aims to predict the prices of strategic food commodities: rice, corn, shallots, garlic, cayenne pepper, large chilies, chicken meat, chicken eggs, beef, cooking oil, and granulated sugar at the wholesaler level in the district. Poor. The research method used is the ARMA-GARCH forecasting method. Price forecasting carried out on all strategic food commodities in Malang Regency shows a fluctuating pattern with a tendency for price increases, with an average change increasing gradually in each period. The causality relationship in various markets about price changes in strategic food commodities in Malang Regency shows a unidirectional and two-way causality pattern.https://agrise.ub.ac.id/index.php/agrise/article/view/1090priceforecastingvolatilitycausality |
| spellingShingle | Sujarwo Sujarwo Fitrotul Laili PRICE FORECASTING OF STRATEGIC FOOD COMMODITIES IN VARIOUS MARKETS IN MALANG REGENCY: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ARMA-GARCH MODEL AGRISE price forecasting volatility causality |
| title | PRICE FORECASTING OF STRATEGIC FOOD COMMODITIES IN VARIOUS MARKETS IN MALANG REGENCY: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ARMA-GARCH MODEL |
| title_full | PRICE FORECASTING OF STRATEGIC FOOD COMMODITIES IN VARIOUS MARKETS IN MALANG REGENCY: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ARMA-GARCH MODEL |
| title_fullStr | PRICE FORECASTING OF STRATEGIC FOOD COMMODITIES IN VARIOUS MARKETS IN MALANG REGENCY: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ARMA-GARCH MODEL |
| title_full_unstemmed | PRICE FORECASTING OF STRATEGIC FOOD COMMODITIES IN VARIOUS MARKETS IN MALANG REGENCY: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ARMA-GARCH MODEL |
| title_short | PRICE FORECASTING OF STRATEGIC FOOD COMMODITIES IN VARIOUS MARKETS IN MALANG REGENCY: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ARMA-GARCH MODEL |
| title_sort | price forecasting of strategic food commodities in various markets in malang regency implementation of the arma garch model |
| topic | price forecasting volatility causality |
| url | https://agrise.ub.ac.id/index.php/agrise/article/view/1090 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sujarwosujarwo priceforecastingofstrategicfoodcommoditiesinvariousmarketsinmalangregencyimplementationofthearmagarchmodel AT fitrotullaili priceforecastingofstrategicfoodcommoditiesinvariousmarketsinmalangregencyimplementationofthearmagarchmodel |