Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances
Possible future changes in Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances were studied using a catchment–sea coupled model system and numerical experiments based on meteorological and hydrological forcing datasets and scenarios. By using objective statistical methods, climate ru...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Stockholm University Press
2012-12-01
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| Series: | Tellus: Series B, Chemical and Physical Meteorology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.tellusb.net/index.php/tellusb/article/view/19586/pdf_1 |
| _version_ | 1818039959469162496 |
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| author | Anders Omstedt Moa Edman Björn Claremar Peter Frodin Erik Gustafsson Christoph Humborg Hanna Hägg Magnus Mörth Anna Rutgersson Guy Schurgers Benjamin Smith Teresia Wällstedt Alla Yurova |
| author_facet | Anders Omstedt Moa Edman Björn Claremar Peter Frodin Erik Gustafsson Christoph Humborg Hanna Hägg Magnus Mörth Anna Rutgersson Guy Schurgers Benjamin Smith Teresia Wällstedt Alla Yurova |
| author_sort | Anders Omstedt |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Possible future changes in Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances were studied using a catchment–sea coupled model system and numerical experiments based on meteorological and hydrological forcing datasets and scenarios. By using objective statistical methods, climate runs for present climate conditions were examined and evaluated using Baltic Sea modelling. The results indicate that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, the seasonal pH cycle will be amplified by increased biological production and mineralization. All examined scenarios indicate future acidification of the whole Baltic Sea that is insensitive to the chosen global climate model. The main factor controlling the direction and magnitude of future pH changes is atmospheric CO2 concentration (i.e. emissions). Climate change and land-derived changes (e.g. nutrient loads) affect acidification mainly by altering the seasonal cycle and deep-water conditions. Apart from decreasing pH, we also project a decreased saturation state of calcium carbonate, decreased respiration index and increasing hypoxic area – all factors that will threaten the marine ecosystem. We demonstrate that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel burning are needed to minimise the coming pH decrease and that substantial reductions in nutrient loads are needed to reduce the coming increase in hypoxic and anoxic waters. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T08:06:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a75af1d7499d43609870672cc1840721 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1600-0889 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T08:06:55Z |
| publishDate | 2012-12-01 |
| publisher | Stockholm University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tellus: Series B, Chemical and Physical Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj.art-a75af1d7499d43609870672cc18407212022-12-22T01:56:39ZengStockholm University PressTellus: Series B, Chemical and Physical Meteorology1600-08892012-12-0164012310.3402/tellusb.v64i0.19586Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balancesAnders OmstedtMoa EdmanBjörn ClaremarPeter FrodinErik GustafssonChristoph HumborgHanna HäggMagnus MörthAnna RutgerssonGuy SchurgersBenjamin SmithTeresia WällstedtAlla YurovaPossible future changes in Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances were studied using a catchment–sea coupled model system and numerical experiments based on meteorological and hydrological forcing datasets and scenarios. By using objective statistical methods, climate runs for present climate conditions were examined and evaluated using Baltic Sea modelling. The results indicate that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, the seasonal pH cycle will be amplified by increased biological production and mineralization. All examined scenarios indicate future acidification of the whole Baltic Sea that is insensitive to the chosen global climate model. The main factor controlling the direction and magnitude of future pH changes is atmospheric CO2 concentration (i.e. emissions). Climate change and land-derived changes (e.g. nutrient loads) affect acidification mainly by altering the seasonal cycle and deep-water conditions. Apart from decreasing pH, we also project a decreased saturation state of calcium carbonate, decreased respiration index and increasing hypoxic area – all factors that will threaten the marine ecosystem. We demonstrate that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel burning are needed to minimise the coming pH decrease and that substantial reductions in nutrient loads are needed to reduce the coming increase in hypoxic and anoxic waters.http://www.tellusb.net/index.php/tellusb/article/view/19586/pdf_1Ocean acidificationmarine acidificationeutrophicationclimate changeBaltic SeaKattegat |
| spellingShingle | Anders Omstedt Moa Edman Björn Claremar Peter Frodin Erik Gustafsson Christoph Humborg Hanna Hägg Magnus Mörth Anna Rutgersson Guy Schurgers Benjamin Smith Teresia Wällstedt Alla Yurova Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances Tellus: Series B, Chemical and Physical Meteorology Ocean acidification marine acidification eutrophication climate change Baltic Sea Kattegat |
| title | Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances |
| title_full | Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances |
| title_fullStr | Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances |
| title_short | Future changes in the Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances |
| title_sort | future changes in the baltic sea acid x2013 base ph and oxygen balances |
| topic | Ocean acidification marine acidification eutrophication climate change Baltic Sea Kattegat |
| url | http://www.tellusb.net/index.php/tellusb/article/view/19586/pdf_1 |
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