The impact of climate change, population growth and development on sustainable water security in Bangladesh to 2100
Abstract There are concerns that groundwater use for irrigation and for urban water supply is unsustainable in some parts of Bangladesh, particularly in the agriculturally productive northwest region. We use an integrated population – GDP – food – water model to examine water demand to 2100 in Bangl...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-26807-6 |
| _version_ | 1797973650372034560 |
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| author | Mac Kirby Mohammed Mainuddin |
| author_facet | Mac Kirby Mohammed Mainuddin |
| author_sort | Mac Kirby |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract There are concerns that groundwater use for irrigation and for urban water supply is unsustainable in some parts of Bangladesh, particularly in the agriculturally productive northwest region. We use an integrated population – GDP – food – water model to examine water demand to 2100 in Bangladesh in development scenarios relevant to food and water security. The results indicate that irrigation water demand is projected to increase in coming decades, but later in the century it may decrease due to increasing crop yields and a falling population. The increased demand is greatest in the northwest region and, if unchecked, would increase concerns there about the unsustainable use of groundwater. The growth in demand is determined particularly by growth in crop yields, population growth and the fraction of food demand satisfied by imports. An extreme hot-dry climate change scenario has a lesser impact. This suggests that, in principle, Bangladesh can offset the impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand through its domestic policies. Urban water use currently also leads to concerns over unsustainable groundwater use. Our results suggest that urban water demand is likely to grow proportionately significantly more than irrigation water demand. Alternative sources for urban water are therefore urgently required. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T04:07:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a77ec2f6e420415aa0a81f9df0b977cf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T04:07:38Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-a77ec2f6e420415aa0a81f9df0b977cf2023-01-01T12:19:56ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-12-0112111210.1038/s41598-022-26807-6The impact of climate change, population growth and development on sustainable water security in Bangladesh to 2100Mac Kirby0Mohammed Mainuddin1CSIRO Land and WaterCSIRO Land and WaterAbstract There are concerns that groundwater use for irrigation and for urban water supply is unsustainable in some parts of Bangladesh, particularly in the agriculturally productive northwest region. We use an integrated population – GDP – food – water model to examine water demand to 2100 in Bangladesh in development scenarios relevant to food and water security. The results indicate that irrigation water demand is projected to increase in coming decades, but later in the century it may decrease due to increasing crop yields and a falling population. The increased demand is greatest in the northwest region and, if unchecked, would increase concerns there about the unsustainable use of groundwater. The growth in demand is determined particularly by growth in crop yields, population growth and the fraction of food demand satisfied by imports. An extreme hot-dry climate change scenario has a lesser impact. This suggests that, in principle, Bangladesh can offset the impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand through its domestic policies. Urban water use currently also leads to concerns over unsustainable groundwater use. Our results suggest that urban water demand is likely to grow proportionately significantly more than irrigation water demand. Alternative sources for urban water are therefore urgently required.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-26807-6 |
| spellingShingle | Mac Kirby Mohammed Mainuddin The impact of climate change, population growth and development on sustainable water security in Bangladesh to 2100 Scientific Reports |
| title | The impact of climate change, population growth and development on sustainable water security in Bangladesh to 2100 |
| title_full | The impact of climate change, population growth and development on sustainable water security in Bangladesh to 2100 |
| title_fullStr | The impact of climate change, population growth and development on sustainable water security in Bangladesh to 2100 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of climate change, population growth and development on sustainable water security in Bangladesh to 2100 |
| title_short | The impact of climate change, population growth and development on sustainable water security in Bangladesh to 2100 |
| title_sort | impact of climate change population growth and development on sustainable water security in bangladesh to 2100 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-26807-6 |
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