Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures
This paper presents a model (SLEUTH*) for projecting contrasting urban growth futures. It is derived from the SLEUTH model, which has been modified in order to incorporate an additional spatially explicit factor, and to be used in a fully controlled forecasting mode. Our aim is to spatially allocate...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | deu |
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Unité Mixte de Recherche 8504 Géographie-cités
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Cybergeo |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/27397 |
| _version_ | 1797222905544704000 |
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| author | Thomas Houet Rahim Aguejdad Omar Doukari Guillaume Battaia Keith Clarke |
| author_facet | Thomas Houet Rahim Aguejdad Omar Doukari Guillaume Battaia Keith Clarke |
| author_sort | Thomas Houet |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper presents a model (SLEUTH*) for projecting contrasting urban growth futures. It is derived from the SLEUTH model, which has been modified in order to incorporate an additional spatially explicit factor, and to be used in a fully controlled forecasting mode. Our aim is to spatially allocate urban growth, its amount and pattern, according to predefined prospective scenarios and assuming a non path-dependency approach. This modelling approach aims at being used under a "story and simulation" (SAS) approach, which constrains the model validation. To assess model efficiency, three types of tests have been undertaken: (1) sensitivity tests; (2) reproduction of known changes over a past period; and (3) simulation of changes that break trends. Results show that SLEUTH* conveniently simulates expected urban changes for exploring contrasting scenarios that are the basis for land planning strategies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T03:01:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a79f655efdb9487b839a0bc83ef89be1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1278-3366 |
| language | deu |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T13:28:45Z |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | Unité Mixte de Recherche 8504 Géographie-cités |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cybergeo |
| spelling | doaj.art-a79f655efdb9487b839a0bc83ef89be12024-04-04T09:33:22ZdeuUnité Mixte de Recherche 8504 Géographie-citésCybergeo1278-33662016-01-0110.4000/cybergeo.27397Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futuresThomas HouetRahim AguejdadOmar DoukariGuillaume BattaiaKeith ClarkeThis paper presents a model (SLEUTH*) for projecting contrasting urban growth futures. It is derived from the SLEUTH model, which has been modified in order to incorporate an additional spatially explicit factor, and to be used in a fully controlled forecasting mode. Our aim is to spatially allocate urban growth, its amount and pattern, according to predefined prospective scenarios and assuming a non path-dependency approach. This modelling approach aims at being used under a "story and simulation" (SAS) approach, which constrains the model validation. To assess model efficiency, three types of tests have been undertaken: (1) sensitivity tests; (2) reproduction of known changes over a past period; and (3) simulation of changes that break trends. Results show that SLEUTH* conveniently simulates expected urban changes for exploring contrasting scenarios that are the basis for land planning strategies.https://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/27397land useland covermodelscenariotrajectoriestrends vs. contrasting futures |
| spellingShingle | Thomas Houet Rahim Aguejdad Omar Doukari Guillaume Battaia Keith Clarke Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures Cybergeo land use land cover model scenario trajectories trends vs. contrasting futures |
| title | Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures |
| title_full | Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures |
| title_fullStr | Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures |
| title_full_unstemmed | Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures |
| title_short | Description and validation of a “non path-dependent” model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures |
| title_sort | description and validation of a non path dependent model for projecting contrasting urban growth futures |
| topic | land use land cover model scenario trajectories trends vs. contrasting futures |
| url | https://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/27397 |
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