Climatic Niche Model for Overwintering Monarch Butterflies in a Topographically Complex Region of California
We use climatic conditions that are associated with known monarch butterfly overwintering groves in California to build a Maxent model, and focus on the fine scale probability of overwintering grove occurrence in a topographically complex region of the state (Santa Barbara County). Grove locations a...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2018-11-01
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| Series: | Insects |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/9/4/167 |
| _version_ | 1819237603273080832 |
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| author | Ashley Fisher Kiana Saniee Charis van der Heide Jessica Griffiths Daniel Meade Francis Villablanca |
| author_facet | Ashley Fisher Kiana Saniee Charis van der Heide Jessica Griffiths Daniel Meade Francis Villablanca |
| author_sort | Ashley Fisher |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We use climatic conditions that are associated with known monarch butterfly overwintering groves in California to build a Maxent model, and focus on the fine scale probability of overwintering grove occurrence in a topographically complex region of the state (Santa Barbara County). Grove locations are known from recent and historical surveys and a long-term citizen science database. The climatic niche model performs well, predicting that overwintering habitat is most likely to occur along the coast and at low elevations, as shown by empirical data. We then use climatic variables in conjunction with climate change scenarios to model the future location of overwintering habitat, and find a substantial shift in the predicted distribution. Under a plausible scenario, the probability of occurrence of overwintering habitat directly reflects elevation, with coastal regions having a reduced probability relative to today, and higher elevation sites increasing in probability. Under a more extreme scenario, high probability sites are only located along ridgelines and in mountaintop regions of the county. This predicted shift in distribution is likely to have management implications, as sites that currently lack monarchs may become critical to conservation in the future. Our results suggest that estimating the size of the western overwintering population in the future will be problematic, unless annual counts compensate for a shift in the distribution and a potential change in the number and location of occupied sites. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-23T13:22:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a7baf7efc8fd4abca2942e95d991d0bd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2075-4450 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-23T13:22:57Z |
| publishDate | 2018-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Insects |
| spelling | doaj.art-a7baf7efc8fd4abca2942e95d991d0bd2022-12-21T17:45:23ZengMDPI AGInsects2075-44502018-11-019416710.3390/insects9040167insects9040167Climatic Niche Model for Overwintering Monarch Butterflies in a Topographically Complex Region of CaliforniaAshley Fisher0Kiana Saniee1Charis van der Heide2Jessica Griffiths3Daniel Meade4Francis Villablanca5Biological Sciences Department, Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, USABiological Sciences Department, Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, USABiological Sciences Department, Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, USAAlthouse and Meade Inc., 1602 Spring St., Paso Robles, CA 93446, USAAlthouse and Meade Inc., 1602 Spring St., Paso Robles, CA 93446, USABiological Sciences Department, Cal Poly State University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, USAWe use climatic conditions that are associated with known monarch butterfly overwintering groves in California to build a Maxent model, and focus on the fine scale probability of overwintering grove occurrence in a topographically complex region of the state (Santa Barbara County). Grove locations are known from recent and historical surveys and a long-term citizen science database. The climatic niche model performs well, predicting that overwintering habitat is most likely to occur along the coast and at low elevations, as shown by empirical data. We then use climatic variables in conjunction with climate change scenarios to model the future location of overwintering habitat, and find a substantial shift in the predicted distribution. Under a plausible scenario, the probability of occurrence of overwintering habitat directly reflects elevation, with coastal regions having a reduced probability relative to today, and higher elevation sites increasing in probability. Under a more extreme scenario, high probability sites are only located along ridgelines and in mountaintop regions of the county. This predicted shift in distribution is likely to have management implications, as sites that currently lack monarchs may become critical to conservation in the future. Our results suggest that estimating the size of the western overwintering population in the future will be problematic, unless annual counts compensate for a shift in the distribution and a potential change in the number and location of occupied sites.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/9/4/167monarch butterflyoverwinteringclimatic niche modelspecies distribution modelWestern Monarch Thanksgiving CountMaxent |
| spellingShingle | Ashley Fisher Kiana Saniee Charis van der Heide Jessica Griffiths Daniel Meade Francis Villablanca Climatic Niche Model for Overwintering Monarch Butterflies in a Topographically Complex Region of California Insects monarch butterfly overwintering climatic niche model species distribution model Western Monarch Thanksgiving Count Maxent |
| title | Climatic Niche Model for Overwintering Monarch Butterflies in a Topographically Complex Region of California |
| title_full | Climatic Niche Model for Overwintering Monarch Butterflies in a Topographically Complex Region of California |
| title_fullStr | Climatic Niche Model for Overwintering Monarch Butterflies in a Topographically Complex Region of California |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climatic Niche Model for Overwintering Monarch Butterflies in a Topographically Complex Region of California |
| title_short | Climatic Niche Model for Overwintering Monarch Butterflies in a Topographically Complex Region of California |
| title_sort | climatic niche model for overwintering monarch butterflies in a topographically complex region of california |
| topic | monarch butterfly overwintering climatic niche model species distribution model Western Monarch Thanksgiving Count Maxent |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/9/4/167 |
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