Tropical and Extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn Niño3.4 Index: a comparison
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the main source of the predictability skill in many regions of the world for seasonal and interannual timescales. Longer lead predictability experiments of Niño3.4 Index using simple statistical linear models have shown an important skill los...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2016-08-01
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| Series: | Advances in Geosciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.adv-geosci.net/42/73/2016/adgeo-42-73-2016.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818218595493085184 |
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| author | M. Tasambay-Salazar M. Tasambay-Salazar M. J. OrtizBeviá A. RuizdeElvira F. J. Alvarez-García |
| author_facet | M. Tasambay-Salazar M. Tasambay-Salazar M. J. OrtizBeviá A. RuizdeElvira F. J. Alvarez-García |
| author_sort | M. Tasambay-Salazar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is
the main source of the predictability skill in many regions of the world for
seasonal and interannual timescales. Longer lead predictability experiments
of Niño3.4 Index using simple statistical linear models have shown an
important skill loss at longer lead times when the targeted season is summer
or autumn. We develop different versions of the model substituting some its
variables with others that contain tropical or extratropical information,
produce a number of hindcasts with these models using two different
predictions schemes and cross validate them. We have identified different
sets of tropical or extratropical predictors, which can provide useful
values of potential skill. We try to find out the sources of the
predictability by comparing the sea surface temperature (SST) and heat
content (HC) anomalous fields produced by the successful predictors for the
1980–2012 period. We observe that where tropical predictors are used the
prediction reproduces only the equatorial characteristics of the warming
(cooling). However, where extratropical predictors are included, the
predictions are able to simulate the absorbed warming in the South Pacific
Convergence Zone (SPCZ). |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T07:26:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a7f4afac0d4a4fcbae21ddbe9ff27495 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7340 1680-7359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T07:26:16Z |
| publishDate | 2016-08-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Geosciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-a7f4afac0d4a4fcbae21ddbe9ff274952022-12-22T00:33:09ZengCopernicus PublicationsAdvances in Geosciences1680-73401680-73592016-08-0142738110.5194/adgeo-42-73-2016Tropical and Extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn Niño3.4 Index: a comparisonM. Tasambay-Salazar0M. Tasambay-Salazar1M. J. OrtizBeviá2A. RuizdeElvira3F. J. Alvarez-García4Departamento de Física y Matemática, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, 28801, SpainFacultad de Informática y Electrónica, Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo, Riobamba, EC060155, EcuadorDepartamento de Física y Matemática, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, 28801, SpainDepartamento de Física y Matemática, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, 28801, SpainDepartamento de Física y Matemática, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, 28801, SpainThe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the main source of the predictability skill in many regions of the world for seasonal and interannual timescales. Longer lead predictability experiments of Niño3.4 Index using simple statistical linear models have shown an important skill loss at longer lead times when the targeted season is summer or autumn. We develop different versions of the model substituting some its variables with others that contain tropical or extratropical information, produce a number of hindcasts with these models using two different predictions schemes and cross validate them. We have identified different sets of tropical or extratropical predictors, which can provide useful values of potential skill. We try to find out the sources of the predictability by comparing the sea surface temperature (SST) and heat content (HC) anomalous fields produced by the successful predictors for the 1980–2012 period. We observe that where tropical predictors are used the prediction reproduces only the equatorial characteristics of the warming (cooling). However, where extratropical predictors are included, the predictions are able to simulate the absorbed warming in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ).https://www.adv-geosci.net/42/73/2016/adgeo-42-73-2016.pdf |
| spellingShingle | M. Tasambay-Salazar M. Tasambay-Salazar M. J. OrtizBeviá A. RuizdeElvira F. J. Alvarez-García Tropical and Extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn Niño3.4 Index: a comparison Advances in Geosciences |
| title | Tropical and Extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn Niño3.4
Index: a comparison |
| title_full | Tropical and Extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn Niño3.4
Index: a comparison |
| title_fullStr | Tropical and Extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn Niño3.4
Index: a comparison |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tropical and Extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn Niño3.4
Index: a comparison |
| title_short | Tropical and Extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn Niño3.4
Index: a comparison |
| title_sort | tropical and extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn nino3 4 index a comparison |
| url | https://www.adv-geosci.net/42/73/2016/adgeo-42-73-2016.pdf |
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