Flood Prediction due to Land Cover Change in the Ciliwung River Basin
Located in the Special Capital Region of Jakarta (DKI Jakarta), which serves as the government capital and national capital of Indonesia, the Ciliwung River plays a major role in Indonesia. The increasing population of the Jakarta and Bogor area has resulted in an increase in the level of land o...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Universitas Indonesia
2022-04-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Technology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ijtech.eng.ui.ac.id/article/view/4662 |
| Summary: | Located in the Special Capital Region of Jakarta (DKI
Jakarta), which serves as the government capital and national capital of
Indonesia, the Ciliwung River plays a major role in Indonesia. The increasing
population of the Jakarta and Bogor area has resulted in an increase in the
level of land ownership, which has had an impact on increasing areas of
settlement and decreasing green open spaces. This rapid urbanization and change
in land use has directly affected the hydrological nature of the area, causing
an increase in the flooding volume in this region. This research was conducted
in four stages: hydrological analysis, hydraulic analysis, flood hazard
mapping, and flood assessment of land cover. To estimate the impact of the land
cover change that has occurred, the Soil Conservation Service Unit Hydrograph was
used along with the West Java rainfall distribution method. Hydraulic modeling
uses the Hydrologic
Engineering Center-River Analysis System, with 1D for channel runoff and 2D for surface
runoff. Two projected land cover changes from a previous study and spatial plan
were used to analyze design discharges. The results found that, for every 13 km2
of forest or agricultural area converted into urban or bare soil area, the
flood peak discharge, flood area, and flood volume would increase by 3.6%, 15%,
and 16%, respectively. The hydrological analysis showed that, based on
historical data trends, the land cover change in 2030 would lead to an increase
in peak discharge, flood area, and flood volume of 25%, 101.7%, and 91%,
respectively. However, this impact could be minimized by following Bogor
District Spatial Planning, which has a wider forest area than the future
projection land cover. |
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| ISSN: | 2086-9614 2087-2100 |