A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh
Climate change is expected to impact the habitability of many places around the world in significant and unprecedented ways in the coming decades. While previous studies have provided estimates of populations potentially exposed to various climate impacts, little work has been done to assess the num...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4d4 |
| _version_ | 1827870851908763648 |
|---|---|
| author | Kyle Frankel Davis Abinash Bhattachan Paolo D’Odorico Samir Suweis |
| author_facet | Kyle Frankel Davis Abinash Bhattachan Paolo D’Odorico Samir Suweis |
| author_sort | Kyle Frankel Davis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is expected to impact the habitability of many places around the world in significant and unprecedented ways in the coming decades. While previous studies have provided estimates of populations potentially exposed to various climate impacts, little work has been done to assess the number of people that may actually be displaced or where they will choose to go. Here we modify a diffusion-based model of human mobility in combination with population, geographic, and climatic data to estimate the sources, destinations, and flux of potential migrants as driven by sea level rise (SLR) in Bangladesh in the years 2050 and 2100. Using only maps of population and elevation, we predict that 0.9 million people (by year 2050) to 2.1 million people (by year 2100) could be displaced by direct inundation and that almost all of this movement will occur locally within the southern half of the country. We also find that destination locations should anticipate substantial additional demands on jobs (594 000), housing (197 000), and food (783 × 10 ^9 calories) by mid-century as a result of those displaced by SLR. By linking the sources of migrants displaced by SLR with their likely destinations, we demonstrate an effective approach for predicting climate-driven migrant flows, especially in data-limited settings. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a85cad73614c45a7902fb7a7cd60873b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:52Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-a85cad73614c45a7902fb7a7cd60873b2023-08-09T14:35:41ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113606403010.1088/1748-9326/aac4d4A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in BangladeshKyle Frankel Davis0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4504-1407Abinash Bhattachan1Paolo D’Odorico2Samir Suweis3The Earth Institute , Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, United States of America; The Nature Conservancy , New York, NY 10001, United States of America; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources , North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States of AmericaDepartment of Environmental Science , Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, United States of AmericaDepartment of Physics and Astronomy , University of Padova, CNISM and INFN, 35131 Padova, ItalyClimate change is expected to impact the habitability of many places around the world in significant and unprecedented ways in the coming decades. While previous studies have provided estimates of populations potentially exposed to various climate impacts, little work has been done to assess the number of people that may actually be displaced or where they will choose to go. Here we modify a diffusion-based model of human mobility in combination with population, geographic, and climatic data to estimate the sources, destinations, and flux of potential migrants as driven by sea level rise (SLR) in Bangladesh in the years 2050 and 2100. Using only maps of population and elevation, we predict that 0.9 million people (by year 2050) to 2.1 million people (by year 2100) could be displaced by direct inundation and that almost all of this movement will occur locally within the southern half of the country. We also find that destination locations should anticipate substantial additional demands on jobs (594 000), housing (197 000), and food (783 × 10 ^9 calories) by mid-century as a result of those displaced by SLR. By linking the sources of migrants displaced by SLR with their likely destinations, we demonstrate an effective approach for predicting climate-driven migrant flows, especially in data-limited settings.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4d4sea level risehuman migrationradiation modelclimate change adaptation |
| spellingShingle | Kyle Frankel Davis Abinash Bhattachan Paolo D’Odorico Samir Suweis A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh Environmental Research Letters sea level rise human migration radiation model climate change adaptation |
| title | A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh |
| title_full | A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh |
| title_fullStr | A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh |
| title_full_unstemmed | A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh |
| title_short | A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh |
| title_sort | universal model for predicting human migration under climate change examining future sea level rise in bangladesh |
| topic | sea level rise human migration radiation model climate change adaptation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4d4 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kylefrankeldavis auniversalmodelforpredictinghumanmigrationunderclimatechangeexaminingfuturesealevelriseinbangladesh AT abinashbhattachan auniversalmodelforpredictinghumanmigrationunderclimatechangeexaminingfuturesealevelriseinbangladesh AT paolododorico auniversalmodelforpredictinghumanmigrationunderclimatechangeexaminingfuturesealevelriseinbangladesh AT samirsuweis auniversalmodelforpredictinghumanmigrationunderclimatechangeexaminingfuturesealevelriseinbangladesh AT kylefrankeldavis universalmodelforpredictinghumanmigrationunderclimatechangeexaminingfuturesealevelriseinbangladesh AT abinashbhattachan universalmodelforpredictinghumanmigrationunderclimatechangeexaminingfuturesealevelriseinbangladesh AT paolododorico universalmodelforpredictinghumanmigrationunderclimatechangeexaminingfuturesealevelriseinbangladesh AT samirsuweis universalmodelforpredictinghumanmigrationunderclimatechangeexaminingfuturesealevelriseinbangladesh |