Effects of climate shocks on human fertility in Indonesia: a retrospective, panel analysis of household survey and climate data
Background: Climate change is likely to induce a large range of household-level responses, including changes in human fertility behaviours and outcomes. These responses might have important implications for human and economic development, women's empowerment, and environmental sustainability. H...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2018-05-01
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| Series: | The Lancet Planetary Health |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519618300974 |
| _version_ | 1828384879972188160 |
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| author | Samuel Sellers, PhD Clark Gray, PhD |
| author_facet | Samuel Sellers, PhD Clark Gray, PhD |
| author_sort | Samuel Sellers, PhD |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Climate change is likely to induce a large range of household-level responses, including changes in human fertility behaviours and outcomes. These responses might have important implications for human and economic development, women's empowerment, and environmental sustainability. However, to date, few studies have explored the associations between climate change and fertility intentions, family planning use, and births. Methods: Drawing on the literature linking climate variability to rice production in Indonesia, we used large-scale, longitudinal household survey data and high-resolution climate data to explore changes in childbearing preferences, family planning use, and births after community-level climate anomalies (timing of monsoon onset and temperature) in Indonesia between 1993 and 2015. Analyses were done with a series of fixed-effects, logistic regression models. We also assessed parallel shifts in household wellbeing, as measured by expenditure on rice, food, and non-food products. Findings: We found that, in the short term (climate anomalies occurring 1–12 months before surveys), fertility desires increased and family planning use declined in response to delays in monsoon onset, particularly in wealthier populations. Delays in monsoon onset were also associated with substantially reduced expenditure on food and non-food products among households without farm businesses and high levels of education. In the medium term (climate anomalies occurring 1–60 months before surveys), fertility desires declined and family planning use increased in response to high temperatures, particularly in poorer populations. Interpretation: These results suggest that fertility desires, family planning use, and births are affected by climate shocks. Provision of high-quality family planning services can serve as an important climate change adaptation tool for vulnerable populations. Funding: None. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T05:11:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a89b5c2de6f64359a8b6d2757a8b4ec5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2542-5196 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T05:11:06Z |
| publishDate | 2018-05-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Lancet Planetary Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-a89b5c2de6f64359a8b6d2757a8b4ec52022-12-22T02:01:07ZengElsevierThe Lancet Planetary Health2542-51962018-05-012S12Effects of climate shocks on human fertility in Indonesia: a retrospective, panel analysis of household survey and climate dataSamuel Sellers, PhD0Clark Gray, PhD1Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Correspondence to: Samuel Sellers, Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USADepartment of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USABackground: Climate change is likely to induce a large range of household-level responses, including changes in human fertility behaviours and outcomes. These responses might have important implications for human and economic development, women's empowerment, and environmental sustainability. However, to date, few studies have explored the associations between climate change and fertility intentions, family planning use, and births. Methods: Drawing on the literature linking climate variability to rice production in Indonesia, we used large-scale, longitudinal household survey data and high-resolution climate data to explore changes in childbearing preferences, family planning use, and births after community-level climate anomalies (timing of monsoon onset and temperature) in Indonesia between 1993 and 2015. Analyses were done with a series of fixed-effects, logistic regression models. We also assessed parallel shifts in household wellbeing, as measured by expenditure on rice, food, and non-food products. Findings: We found that, in the short term (climate anomalies occurring 1–12 months before surveys), fertility desires increased and family planning use declined in response to delays in monsoon onset, particularly in wealthier populations. Delays in monsoon onset were also associated with substantially reduced expenditure on food and non-food products among households without farm businesses and high levels of education. In the medium term (climate anomalies occurring 1–60 months before surveys), fertility desires declined and family planning use increased in response to high temperatures, particularly in poorer populations. Interpretation: These results suggest that fertility desires, family planning use, and births are affected by climate shocks. Provision of high-quality family planning services can serve as an important climate change adaptation tool for vulnerable populations. Funding: None.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519618300974 |
| spellingShingle | Samuel Sellers, PhD Clark Gray, PhD Effects of climate shocks on human fertility in Indonesia: a retrospective, panel analysis of household survey and climate data The Lancet Planetary Health |
| title | Effects of climate shocks on human fertility in Indonesia: a retrospective, panel analysis of household survey and climate data |
| title_full | Effects of climate shocks on human fertility in Indonesia: a retrospective, panel analysis of household survey and climate data |
| title_fullStr | Effects of climate shocks on human fertility in Indonesia: a retrospective, panel analysis of household survey and climate data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of climate shocks on human fertility in Indonesia: a retrospective, panel analysis of household survey and climate data |
| title_short | Effects of climate shocks on human fertility in Indonesia: a retrospective, panel analysis of household survey and climate data |
| title_sort | effects of climate shocks on human fertility in indonesia a retrospective panel analysis of household survey and climate data |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519618300974 |
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