Estimating recruitment rate and population dynamics at a migratory stopover site using an integrated population model
Abstract Consideration of the full annual cycle population dynamics can provide useful insight for conservation efforts, but collecting data needed to estimate demographic parameters is often logistically difficult. For species that breed in remote areas, monitoring is often conducted during migrato...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2023-02-01
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| Series: | Ecosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4439 |
| _version_ | 1797894413794410496 |
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| author | Anna M. Tucker Conor P. McGowan Bryan L. Nuse James E. Lyons Clinton T. Moore David R. Smith John A. Sweka Kristen A. Anstead Audrey DeRose‐Wilson Nigel A. Clark |
| author_facet | Anna M. Tucker Conor P. McGowan Bryan L. Nuse James E. Lyons Clinton T. Moore David R. Smith John A. Sweka Kristen A. Anstead Audrey DeRose‐Wilson Nigel A. Clark |
| author_sort | Anna M. Tucker |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Consideration of the full annual cycle population dynamics can provide useful insight for conservation efforts, but collecting data needed to estimate demographic parameters is often logistically difficult. For species that breed in remote areas, monitoring is often conducted during migratory stopover or at nonbreeding sites, and the recruitment rate of new breeding adults can be difficult to estimate directly. Here, we present an integrated population model that uses mark‐resight and count data to estimate survival probability, population growth rate, and recruitment rate for an Arctic‐breeding shorebird of conservation concern, the red knot (Calidris canutus rufa), from data collected during spring stopover in Delaware Bay, USA, from 2005 to 2018. At this site, red knots feed primarily on the eggs of spawning horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus), a legally harvested species. We used this model to estimate the relationship between horseshoe crab abundance and red knot demographics, which informed a recent revision to the framework used to establish horseshoe crab harvest regulations. Our analysis indicates that the red knot population was most likely stable from 2005 to 2018 (average λ = 1.03, 95% credible interval [CRI]: 0.961, 1.15) despite low recruitment rates (average ρ = 0.088, 95% CRI: 0.012, 0.18). Adult survival probability was positively associated with horseshoe crab abundance in the same year (β = 0.35, 95% CRI: 0.09, 0.63), but we found no effect of horseshoe crab abundance two years previously on recruitment of new adults (β = −0.08, 95% CRI: −0.41, 0.38). Our approach demonstrates the utility of integrated population models for understanding population dynamics, even when data are only available from migratory stopover monitoring. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T07:09:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a8c58d2be1d542b7ac09d5b0854ce9b6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2150-8925 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T07:09:39Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-a8c58d2be1d542b7ac09d5b0854ce9b62023-02-27T00:40:39ZengWileyEcosphere2150-89252023-02-01142n/an/a10.1002/ecs2.4439Estimating recruitment rate and population dynamics at a migratory stopover site using an integrated population modelAnna M. Tucker0Conor P. McGowan1Bryan L. Nuse2James E. Lyons3Clinton T. Moore4David R. Smith5John A. Sweka6Kristen A. Anstead7Audrey DeRose‐Wilson8Nigel A. Clark9U.S. Geological Survey, Iowa Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit Iowa State University Ames Iowa USAU.S. Geological Survey, Florida Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit University of Florida Gainesville Florida USABird Conservancy of the Rockies Ft. Collins Colorado USAU.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center at the Patuxent Research Refuge Laurel Maryland USAU.S. Geological Survey, Georgia Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit University of Georgia Athens Georgia USAU.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center at Leetown Kearneysville West Virginia USAU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Northeast Fishery Center Lamar Pennsylvania USAAtlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission Arlington Virginia USADelaware Division of Fish and Wildlife Dover Delaware USABritish Trust for Ornithology The Nunnery Norfolk UKAbstract Consideration of the full annual cycle population dynamics can provide useful insight for conservation efforts, but collecting data needed to estimate demographic parameters is often logistically difficult. For species that breed in remote areas, monitoring is often conducted during migratory stopover or at nonbreeding sites, and the recruitment rate of new breeding adults can be difficult to estimate directly. Here, we present an integrated population model that uses mark‐resight and count data to estimate survival probability, population growth rate, and recruitment rate for an Arctic‐breeding shorebird of conservation concern, the red knot (Calidris canutus rufa), from data collected during spring stopover in Delaware Bay, USA, from 2005 to 2018. At this site, red knots feed primarily on the eggs of spawning horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus), a legally harvested species. We used this model to estimate the relationship between horseshoe crab abundance and red knot demographics, which informed a recent revision to the framework used to establish horseshoe crab harvest regulations. Our analysis indicates that the red knot population was most likely stable from 2005 to 2018 (average λ = 1.03, 95% credible interval [CRI]: 0.961, 1.15) despite low recruitment rates (average ρ = 0.088, 95% CRI: 0.012, 0.18). Adult survival probability was positively associated with horseshoe crab abundance in the same year (β = 0.35, 95% CRI: 0.09, 0.63), but we found no effect of horseshoe crab abundance two years previously on recruitment of new adults (β = −0.08, 95% CRI: −0.41, 0.38). Our approach demonstrates the utility of integrated population models for understanding population dynamics, even when data are only available from migratory stopover monitoring.https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4439Arctic‐breeding shorebirdsBayesian hierarchical modelingdemographic estimationintegrated population modelmigratory stopover |
| spellingShingle | Anna M. Tucker Conor P. McGowan Bryan L. Nuse James E. Lyons Clinton T. Moore David R. Smith John A. Sweka Kristen A. Anstead Audrey DeRose‐Wilson Nigel A. Clark Estimating recruitment rate and population dynamics at a migratory stopover site using an integrated population model Ecosphere Arctic‐breeding shorebirds Bayesian hierarchical modeling demographic estimation integrated population model migratory stopover |
| title | Estimating recruitment rate and population dynamics at a migratory stopover site using an integrated population model |
| title_full | Estimating recruitment rate and population dynamics at a migratory stopover site using an integrated population model |
| title_fullStr | Estimating recruitment rate and population dynamics at a migratory stopover site using an integrated population model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating recruitment rate and population dynamics at a migratory stopover site using an integrated population model |
| title_short | Estimating recruitment rate and population dynamics at a migratory stopover site using an integrated population model |
| title_sort | estimating recruitment rate and population dynamics at a migratory stopover site using an integrated population model |
| topic | Arctic‐breeding shorebirds Bayesian hierarchical modeling demographic estimation integrated population model migratory stopover |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4439 |
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