Projected near-term changes of temperature extremes in Europe and China under different aerosol emissions
This study assesses near-term future changes in temperature extremes over China and Europe in scenarios with two very different anthropogenic aerosol (AA) pathways from 2016 to 2049: a maximum technically feasible aerosol reduction (MTFR), and a current legislation aerosol scenario (CLE), both with...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b34 |
| _version_ | 1797747544173838336 |
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| author | Feifei Luo Laura Wilcox Buwen Dong Qin Su Wei Chen Nick Dunstone Shuanglin Li Yongqi Gao |
| author_facet | Feifei Luo Laura Wilcox Buwen Dong Qin Su Wei Chen Nick Dunstone Shuanglin Li Yongqi Gao |
| author_sort | Feifei Luo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study assesses near-term future changes in temperature extremes over China and Europe in scenarios with two very different anthropogenic aerosol (AA) pathways from 2016 to 2049: a maximum technically feasible aerosol reduction (MTFR), and a current legislation aerosol scenario (CLE), both with greenhouses gas forcing following RCP 4.5. Simulations with a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model HadGEM3-GC2 show that there is an increase in hot extremes and a decrease in cold extremes relative to the present day (1995–2014) over China and Europe in both scenarios. However, the magnitude of the changes in both hot and cold extremes depends strongly on the AA pathway. The AA reduction in MTFR amplifies the changes in temperature extremes relative to CLE, and accounts for 40% and 30% of the projected changes in temperature extremes relative to present day over China and Europe, respectively. Thus, this study suggests that future and current policy decisions about AA emissions have the potential for a large near-term impact on temperature extremes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:53:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a8dc67c5d28644e69fc14a1f1f10eb1f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:53:05Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-a8dc67c5d28644e69fc14a1f1f10eb1f2023-08-09T15:04:26ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115303401310.1088/1748-9326/ab6b34Projected near-term changes of temperature extremes in Europe and China under different aerosol emissionsFeifei Luo0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3587-5547Laura Wilcox1Buwen Dong2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911Qin Su3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9707-5153Wei Chen4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3161-8447Nick Dunstone5Shuanglin Li6Yongqi Gao7Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre and Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United KingdomNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United KingdomDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Yunnan University , Kunming, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United KingdomNansen-Zhu International Research Centre and Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Department of Atmospheric Science, China University of Geoscience , Wuhan, People’s Republic of ChinaNansen-Zhu International Research Centre and Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayThis study assesses near-term future changes in temperature extremes over China and Europe in scenarios with two very different anthropogenic aerosol (AA) pathways from 2016 to 2049: a maximum technically feasible aerosol reduction (MTFR), and a current legislation aerosol scenario (CLE), both with greenhouses gas forcing following RCP 4.5. Simulations with a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model HadGEM3-GC2 show that there is an increase in hot extremes and a decrease in cold extremes relative to the present day (1995–2014) over China and Europe in both scenarios. However, the magnitude of the changes in both hot and cold extremes depends strongly on the AA pathway. The AA reduction in MTFR amplifies the changes in temperature extremes relative to CLE, and accounts for 40% and 30% of the projected changes in temperature extremes relative to present day over China and Europe, respectively. Thus, this study suggests that future and current policy decisions about AA emissions have the potential for a large near-term impact on temperature extremes.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b34temperature extremesanthropogenic aerosolsprojectionHadGEM3-GC2 |
| spellingShingle | Feifei Luo Laura Wilcox Buwen Dong Qin Su Wei Chen Nick Dunstone Shuanglin Li Yongqi Gao Projected near-term changes of temperature extremes in Europe and China under different aerosol emissions Environmental Research Letters temperature extremes anthropogenic aerosols projection HadGEM3-GC2 |
| title | Projected near-term changes of temperature extremes in Europe and China under different aerosol emissions |
| title_full | Projected near-term changes of temperature extremes in Europe and China under different aerosol emissions |
| title_fullStr | Projected near-term changes of temperature extremes in Europe and China under different aerosol emissions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected near-term changes of temperature extremes in Europe and China under different aerosol emissions |
| title_short | Projected near-term changes of temperature extremes in Europe and China under different aerosol emissions |
| title_sort | projected near term changes of temperature extremes in europe and china under different aerosol emissions |
| topic | temperature extremes anthropogenic aerosols projection HadGEM3-GC2 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b34 |
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