A prediction nomogram for moderate-to-severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants < 32 weeks of gestation: A multicenter retrospective study
BackgroundModerate-to-severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (msBPD) is a serious complication in preterm infants. We aimed to develop a dynamic nomogram for early prediction of msBPD using perinatal factors in preterm infants born at <32 weeks' gestation.MethodsThis multicenter retrospective...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Pediatrics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fped.2023.1102878/full |
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| author | Jing Zhang Kai Mu Lihua Wei Chunyan Fan Rui Zhang Lingling Wang |
| author_facet | Jing Zhang Kai Mu Lihua Wei Chunyan Fan Rui Zhang Lingling Wang |
| author_sort | Jing Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundModerate-to-severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (msBPD) is a serious complication in preterm infants. We aimed to develop a dynamic nomogram for early prediction of msBPD using perinatal factors in preterm infants born at <32 weeks' gestation.MethodsThis multicenter retrospective study conducted at three hospitals in China between January 2017 and December 2021 included data on preterm infants with gestational age (GA) < 32 weeks. All infants were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts (3:1 ratio). Variables were selected by Lasso regression. Multivariate logistic regression was used to build a dynamic nomogram to predict msBPD. The discrimination was verified by receiver operating characteristic curves. Hosmer-Lemeshow test and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used for evaluating calibration and clinical applicability.ResultsA total of 2,067 preterm infants. GA, Apgar 5-min score, small for gestational age (SGA), early onset sepsis, and duration of invasive ventilation were predictors for msBPD by Lasso regression. The area under the curve was 0.894 (95% CI 0.869–0.919) and 0.893 (95% CI 0.855–0.931) in training and validation cohorts. The Hosmer−Lemeshow test calculated P value of 0.059 showing a good fit of the nomogram. The DCA demonstrated significantly clinical benefit of the model in both cohorts. A dynamic nomogram predicting msBPD by perinatal days within postnatal day 7 is available at https://sdxxbxzz.shinyapps.io/BPDpredict/.ConclusionWe assessed the perinatal predictors of msBPD in preterm infants with GA < 32 weeks and built a dynamic nomogram for early risk prediction, providing clinicians a visual tool for early identification of msBPD. |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T20:01:09Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
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| series | Frontiers in Pediatrics |
| spelling | doaj.art-a8e2d508172b4356a67bdb174fa606322023-04-03T05:01:50ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Pediatrics2296-23602023-04-011110.3389/fped.2023.11028781102878A prediction nomogram for moderate-to-severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants < 32 weeks of gestation: A multicenter retrospective studyJing Zhang0Kai Mu1Lihua Wei2Chunyan Fan3Rui Zhang4Lingling Wang5Department of Pediatric, Department of Pediatrics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Shandong Engineering and Technology Research Center for Pediatric Drug Development, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Pediatric, Department of Pediatrics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Shandong Engineering and Technology Research Center for Pediatric Drug Development, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Neonatology, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical College, Jining, ChinaDepartment of Pediatrics, Zibo First Hospital, Zibo, ChinaDepartment of Neonatology, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical College, Jining, ChinaDepartment of Pediatrics, Zibo First Hospital, Zibo, ChinaBackgroundModerate-to-severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (msBPD) is a serious complication in preterm infants. We aimed to develop a dynamic nomogram for early prediction of msBPD using perinatal factors in preterm infants born at <32 weeks' gestation.MethodsThis multicenter retrospective study conducted at three hospitals in China between January 2017 and December 2021 included data on preterm infants with gestational age (GA) < 32 weeks. All infants were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts (3:1 ratio). Variables were selected by Lasso regression. Multivariate logistic regression was used to build a dynamic nomogram to predict msBPD. The discrimination was verified by receiver operating characteristic curves. Hosmer-Lemeshow test and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used for evaluating calibration and clinical applicability.ResultsA total of 2,067 preterm infants. GA, Apgar 5-min score, small for gestational age (SGA), early onset sepsis, and duration of invasive ventilation were predictors for msBPD by Lasso regression. The area under the curve was 0.894 (95% CI 0.869–0.919) and 0.893 (95% CI 0.855–0.931) in training and validation cohorts. The Hosmer−Lemeshow test calculated P value of 0.059 showing a good fit of the nomogram. The DCA demonstrated significantly clinical benefit of the model in both cohorts. A dynamic nomogram predicting msBPD by perinatal days within postnatal day 7 is available at https://sdxxbxzz.shinyapps.io/BPDpredict/.ConclusionWe assessed the perinatal predictors of msBPD in preterm infants with GA < 32 weeks and built a dynamic nomogram for early risk prediction, providing clinicians a visual tool for early identification of msBPD.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fped.2023.1102878/fullbronchopulmonar dysplasiapretermnomogramprediction modelmulti-center studyretrospective study |
| spellingShingle | Jing Zhang Kai Mu Lihua Wei Chunyan Fan Rui Zhang Lingling Wang A prediction nomogram for moderate-to-severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants < 32 weeks of gestation: A multicenter retrospective study Frontiers in Pediatrics bronchopulmonar dysplasia preterm nomogram prediction model multi-center study retrospective study |
| title | A prediction nomogram for moderate-to-severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants < 32 weeks of gestation: A multicenter retrospective study |
| title_full | A prediction nomogram for moderate-to-severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants < 32 weeks of gestation: A multicenter retrospective study |
| title_fullStr | A prediction nomogram for moderate-to-severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants < 32 weeks of gestation: A multicenter retrospective study |
| title_full_unstemmed | A prediction nomogram for moderate-to-severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants < 32 weeks of gestation: A multicenter retrospective study |
| title_short | A prediction nomogram for moderate-to-severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants < 32 weeks of gestation: A multicenter retrospective study |
| title_sort | prediction nomogram for moderate to severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants 32 weeks of gestation a multicenter retrospective study |
| topic | bronchopulmonar dysplasia preterm nomogram prediction model multi-center study retrospective study |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fped.2023.1102878/full |
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