Limits to the quantification of local climate change
We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes in precipitation. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, solely from observations, some confident quantified assessments of change at certain...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094018 |
| _version_ | 1797748712049475584 |
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| author | Sandra C Chapman David A Stainforth Nicholas W Watkins |
| author_facet | Sandra C Chapman David A Stainforth Nicholas W Watkins |
| author_sort | Sandra C Chapman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes in precipitation. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, solely from observations, some confident quantified assessments of change at certain thresholds and locations. Maps of such changes, for a variety of hydrologically-relevant, threshold-dependent metrics, are presented. In places in Scotland, for instance, the total precipitation on heavy rainfall days in winter has increased by more than 50%, but only in some locations has this been accompanied by a substantial increase in total seasonal precipitation; an important distinction for water and land management. These results are important for the presentation of scientific data by climate services, as a benchmark requirement for models which are used to provide projections on local scales, and for process-based climate and impacts research to understand local modulation of synoptic and global scale climate. They are a critical foundation for adaptation planning and for the scientific provision of locally relevant information about future climate. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:09:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a8fde35f863c44ab88de1d52a717b560 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:09:46Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-a8fde35f863c44ab88de1d52a717b5602023-08-09T14:12:13ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262015-01-0110909401810.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094018Limits to the quantification of local climate changeSandra C Chapman0David A Stainforth1Nicholas W Watkins2Department of Physics, University of Warwick , Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tromsø , N-9037 Tromsø, NorwayDepartment of Physics, University of Warwick , Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK; Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Houghton Street, London, UK; Centre for the Analysis of Timeseries, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London, UK; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford , Oxford OX13QY, UKDepartment of Physics, University of Warwick , Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK; Centre for the Analysis of Timeseries, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London, UKWe demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes in precipitation. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, solely from observations, some confident quantified assessments of change at certain thresholds and locations. Maps of such changes, for a variety of hydrologically-relevant, threshold-dependent metrics, are presented. In places in Scotland, for instance, the total precipitation on heavy rainfall days in winter has increased by more than 50%, but only in some locations has this been accompanied by a substantial increase in total seasonal precipitation; an important distinction for water and land management. These results are important for the presentation of scientific data by climate services, as a benchmark requirement for models which are used to provide projections on local scales, and for process-based climate and impacts research to understand local modulation of synoptic and global scale climate. They are a critical foundation for adaptation planning and for the scientific provision of locally relevant information about future climate.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094018climate changeprecipitationclimate change uncertainties |
| spellingShingle | Sandra C Chapman David A Stainforth Nicholas W Watkins Limits to the quantification of local climate change Environmental Research Letters climate change precipitation climate change uncertainties |
| title | Limits to the quantification of local climate change |
| title_full | Limits to the quantification of local climate change |
| title_fullStr | Limits to the quantification of local climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Limits to the quantification of local climate change |
| title_short | Limits to the quantification of local climate change |
| title_sort | limits to the quantification of local climate change |
| topic | climate change precipitation climate change uncertainties |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094018 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sandracchapman limitstothequantificationoflocalclimatechange AT davidastainforth limitstothequantificationoflocalclimatechange AT nicholaswwatkins limitstothequantificationoflocalclimatechange |