Derivation and Validation of a Predictive Score for Respiratory Failure Worsening Leading to Secondary Intubation in COVID-19: The CERES Score
Predictive scores assessing the risk of respiratory failure in COVID-19 mostly focused on the prediction of early intubation. A combined assessment of clinical parameters and biomarkers of endotheliopathy could allow to predict late worsening of acute respiratory failure (ARF), subsequently warranti...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2022-04-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Clinical Medicine |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/11/8/2172 |
| _version_ | 1797434512169238528 |
|---|---|
| author | Alexandre Gaudet Benoit Ghozlan Annabelle Dupont Erika Parmentier-Decrucq Mickael Rosa Emmanuelle Jeanpierre Constance Bayon Anne Tsicopoulos Thibault Duburcq Sophie Susen Julien Poissy |
| author_facet | Alexandre Gaudet Benoit Ghozlan Annabelle Dupont Erika Parmentier-Decrucq Mickael Rosa Emmanuelle Jeanpierre Constance Bayon Anne Tsicopoulos Thibault Duburcq Sophie Susen Julien Poissy |
| author_sort | Alexandre Gaudet |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Predictive scores assessing the risk of respiratory failure in COVID-19 mostly focused on the prediction of early intubation. A combined assessment of clinical parameters and biomarkers of endotheliopathy could allow to predict late worsening of acute respiratory failure (ARF), subsequently warranting intubation in COVID-19. Retrospective single-center derivation (<i>n</i> = 92 subjects) and validation cohorts (<i>n</i> = 59 subjects), including severe COVID-19 patients with non-invasive respiratory support, were assessed for at least 48 h following intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We used stepwise regression to construct the COVID endothelial and respiratory failure (CERES) score in a derivation cohort, and secondly assessed its accuracy for the prediction of late ARF worsening, requiring intubation within 15 days following ICU admission in an independent validation cohort. Platelet count, fraction of inspired oxygen, and endocan measured on ICU admission were identified as the top three predictive variables for late ARF worsening and subsequently included in the CERES score. The area under the ROC curve of the CERES score to predict late ARF worsening was calculated in the derivation and validation cohorts at 0.834 and 0.780, respectively. The CERES score is a simple tool with good performances to predict respiratory failure worsening, leading to secondary intubation, in COVID-19 patients. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:33:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a902e1117987420dacac99c0e6f2b0cd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-0383 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:33:20Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Clinical Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-a902e1117987420dacac99c0e6f2b0cd2023-12-01T21:06:55ZengMDPI AGJournal of Clinical Medicine2077-03832022-04-01118217210.3390/jcm11082172Derivation and Validation of a Predictive Score for Respiratory Failure Worsening Leading to Secondary Intubation in COVID-19: The CERES ScoreAlexandre Gaudet0Benoit Ghozlan1Annabelle Dupont2Erika Parmentier-Decrucq3Mickael Rosa4Emmanuelle Jeanpierre5Constance Bayon6Anne Tsicopoulos7Thibault Duburcq8Sophie Susen9Julien Poissy10Critical Care Center, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, CHU Lille, F-59000 Lille, FranceCritical Care Center, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, CHU Lille, F-59000 Lille, FranceUniv. Lille, Inserm, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, U1011-EGID, F-59000 Lille, FranceCritical Care Center, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, CHU Lille, F-59000 Lille, FranceUniv. Lille, Inserm, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, U1011-EGID, F-59000 Lille, FranceUniv. Lille, Inserm, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, U1011-EGID, F-59000 Lille, FranceCritical Care Center, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, CHU Lille, F-59000 Lille, FranceUniv. Lille, CNRS, Inserm, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, U1019-UMR9017-CIIL-Centre d’Infection et d’Immunité de Lille, F-59000 Lille, FranceCritical Care Center, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, CHU Lille, F-59000 Lille, FranceUniv. Lille, Inserm, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, U1011-EGID, F-59000 Lille, FranceCritical Care Center, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, CHU Lille, F-59000 Lille, FrancePredictive scores assessing the risk of respiratory failure in COVID-19 mostly focused on the prediction of early intubation. A combined assessment of clinical parameters and biomarkers of endotheliopathy could allow to predict late worsening of acute respiratory failure (ARF), subsequently warranting intubation in COVID-19. Retrospective single-center derivation (<i>n</i> = 92 subjects) and validation cohorts (<i>n</i> = 59 subjects), including severe COVID-19 patients with non-invasive respiratory support, were assessed for at least 48 h following intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We used stepwise regression to construct the COVID endothelial and respiratory failure (CERES) score in a derivation cohort, and secondly assessed its accuracy for the prediction of late ARF worsening, requiring intubation within 15 days following ICU admission in an independent validation cohort. Platelet count, fraction of inspired oxygen, and endocan measured on ICU admission were identified as the top three predictive variables for late ARF worsening and subsequently included in the CERES score. The area under the ROC curve of the CERES score to predict late ARF worsening was calculated in the derivation and validation cohorts at 0.834 and 0.780, respectively. The CERES score is a simple tool with good performances to predict respiratory failure worsening, leading to secondary intubation, in COVID-19 patients.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/11/8/2172COVID-19late intubationpredictionscoreendothelial |
| spellingShingle | Alexandre Gaudet Benoit Ghozlan Annabelle Dupont Erika Parmentier-Decrucq Mickael Rosa Emmanuelle Jeanpierre Constance Bayon Anne Tsicopoulos Thibault Duburcq Sophie Susen Julien Poissy Derivation and Validation of a Predictive Score for Respiratory Failure Worsening Leading to Secondary Intubation in COVID-19: The CERES Score Journal of Clinical Medicine COVID-19 late intubation prediction score endothelial |
| title | Derivation and Validation of a Predictive Score for Respiratory Failure Worsening Leading to Secondary Intubation in COVID-19: The CERES Score |
| title_full | Derivation and Validation of a Predictive Score for Respiratory Failure Worsening Leading to Secondary Intubation in COVID-19: The CERES Score |
| title_fullStr | Derivation and Validation of a Predictive Score for Respiratory Failure Worsening Leading to Secondary Intubation in COVID-19: The CERES Score |
| title_full_unstemmed | Derivation and Validation of a Predictive Score for Respiratory Failure Worsening Leading to Secondary Intubation in COVID-19: The CERES Score |
| title_short | Derivation and Validation of a Predictive Score for Respiratory Failure Worsening Leading to Secondary Intubation in COVID-19: The CERES Score |
| title_sort | derivation and validation of a predictive score for respiratory failure worsening leading to secondary intubation in covid 19 the ceres score |
| topic | COVID-19 late intubation prediction score endothelial |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/11/8/2172 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alexandregaudet derivationandvalidationofapredictivescoreforrespiratoryfailureworseningleadingtosecondaryintubationincovid19theceresscore AT benoitghozlan derivationandvalidationofapredictivescoreforrespiratoryfailureworseningleadingtosecondaryintubationincovid19theceresscore AT annabelledupont derivationandvalidationofapredictivescoreforrespiratoryfailureworseningleadingtosecondaryintubationincovid19theceresscore AT erikaparmentierdecrucq derivationandvalidationofapredictivescoreforrespiratoryfailureworseningleadingtosecondaryintubationincovid19theceresscore AT mickaelrosa derivationandvalidationofapredictivescoreforrespiratoryfailureworseningleadingtosecondaryintubationincovid19theceresscore AT emmanuellejeanpierre derivationandvalidationofapredictivescoreforrespiratoryfailureworseningleadingtosecondaryintubationincovid19theceresscore AT constancebayon derivationandvalidationofapredictivescoreforrespiratoryfailureworseningleadingtosecondaryintubationincovid19theceresscore AT annetsicopoulos derivationandvalidationofapredictivescoreforrespiratoryfailureworseningleadingtosecondaryintubationincovid19theceresscore AT thibaultduburcq derivationandvalidationofapredictivescoreforrespiratoryfailureworseningleadingtosecondaryintubationincovid19theceresscore AT sophiesusen derivationandvalidationofapredictivescoreforrespiratoryfailureworseningleadingtosecondaryintubationincovid19theceresscore AT julienpoissy derivationandvalidationofapredictivescoreforrespiratoryfailureworseningleadingtosecondaryintubationincovid19theceresscore |