Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A riskbased methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels
This paper presents a risk-based method to quantify climate change effects on road infrastructure, as a support for decision-making on interventions. This can be implemented in climate adaptation plans as an element of asset management. The method is illustrated by a specific case in which traffic o...
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| Materiálatiipa: | Artihkal |
| Giella: | English |
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TU Delft OPEN Publishing
2016-01-01
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| Ráidu: | European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research |
| Liŋkkat: | https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/ejtir/article/view/3116 |
| _version_ | 1827159031758716928 |
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| author | Elja Huibregtse Oswaldo Morales Napoles Laura Hellebrandt Dominik Paprotny Sten de Wit |
| author_facet | Elja Huibregtse Oswaldo Morales Napoles Laura Hellebrandt Dominik Paprotny Sten de Wit |
| author_sort | Elja Huibregtse |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper presents a risk-based method to quantify climate change effects on road infrastructure, as a support for decision-making on interventions. This can be implemented in climate adaptation plans as an element of asset management. The method is illustrated by a specific case in which traffic on a road network is disrupted by the flooding of a tunnel due to extreme rainfall. Novel techniques to describe both probability of occurrence and consequences of an event are integrated into the proposed risk-based approach. To model a typical climate-change related phenomenon, i.e. rainfall intensity-duration, a model using copulas is proposed as well as a method to account for uncertainty using structured expert judgement. To quantify the consequences, an existing quick scan tool is adopted. The method calculates the risk of flooding of a tunnel, expressed in both probability of occurrence and subsequent additional travel duration on the road network. By comparison of this evolving risk to a societally acceptable threshold, the remaining resilience of the tunnel is evaluated. Furthermore, the method assesses the development of the resilience over time as a result of projected climate change. The maximum time-to-intervention is defined as the period up until the moment when the resilience is depleted. By application of the method to a tunnel in two different contexts, i.e. in a regional road network and a highway network, it is shown that the consequences of tunnel flooding may differ by an order of magnitude (25-fold for the example). Using a risk-based decision-making perspective leads to significant differences in the maximum time-to-intervention. In the example case the year of intervention is determined at 2020 for a tunnel in a highway network, while interventions can be postponed until 2140 in a regional road network. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T08:42:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a9070ae3b61e422ebe0419057a70ab25 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1567-7141 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-03-20T23:50:40Z |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | TU Delft OPEN Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-a9070ae3b61e422ebe0419057a70ab252024-08-03T12:20:59ZengTU Delft OPEN PublishingEuropean Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research1567-71412016-01-0116110.18757/ejtir.2016.16.1.31162728Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A riskbased methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnelsElja Huibregtse0Oswaldo Morales Napoles1Laura Hellebrandt2Dominik Paprotny3Sten de Wit4TNODelft University of TechnologyTNODelft University of TechnologyTNOThis paper presents a risk-based method to quantify climate change effects on road infrastructure, as a support for decision-making on interventions. This can be implemented in climate adaptation plans as an element of asset management. The method is illustrated by a specific case in which traffic on a road network is disrupted by the flooding of a tunnel due to extreme rainfall. Novel techniques to describe both probability of occurrence and consequences of an event are integrated into the proposed risk-based approach. To model a typical climate-change related phenomenon, i.e. rainfall intensity-duration, a model using copulas is proposed as well as a method to account for uncertainty using structured expert judgement. To quantify the consequences, an existing quick scan tool is adopted. The method calculates the risk of flooding of a tunnel, expressed in both probability of occurrence and subsequent additional travel duration on the road network. By comparison of this evolving risk to a societally acceptable threshold, the remaining resilience of the tunnel is evaluated. Furthermore, the method assesses the development of the resilience over time as a result of projected climate change. The maximum time-to-intervention is defined as the period up until the moment when the resilience is depleted. By application of the method to a tunnel in two different contexts, i.e. in a regional road network and a highway network, it is shown that the consequences of tunnel flooding may differ by an order of magnitude (25-fold for the example). Using a risk-based decision-making perspective leads to significant differences in the maximum time-to-intervention. In the example case the year of intervention is determined at 2020 for a tunnel in a highway network, while interventions can be postponed until 2140 in a regional road network.https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/ejtir/article/view/3116 |
| spellingShingle | Elja Huibregtse Oswaldo Morales Napoles Laura Hellebrandt Dominik Paprotny Sten de Wit Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A riskbased methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research |
| title | Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A riskbased methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels |
| title_full | Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A riskbased methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels |
| title_fullStr | Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A riskbased methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A riskbased methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels |
| title_short | Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A riskbased methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels |
| title_sort | climate change in asset management of infrastructure a riskbased methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels |
| url | https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/ejtir/article/view/3116 |
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