Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world
Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptoc...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
2021-07-01
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| Series: | eLife |
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| Online Access: | https://elifesciences.org/articles/67635 |
| _version_ | 1811201494385426432 |
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| author | Jaspreet Toor Susy Echeverria-Londono Xiang Li Kaja Abbas Emily D Carter Hannah E Clapham Andrew Clark Margaret J de Villiers Kirsten Eilertson Matthew Ferrari Ivane Gamkrelidze Timothy B Hallett Wes R Hinsley Daniel Hogan John H Huber Michael L Jackson Kevin Jean Mark Jit Andromachi Karachaliou Petra Klepac Alicia Kraay Justin Lessler Xi Li Benjamin A Lopman Tewodaj Mengistu C Jessica E Metcalf Sean M Moore Shevanthi Nayagam Timos Papadopoulos T Alex Perkins Allison Portnoy Homie Razavi Devin Razavi-Shearer Stephen Resch Colin Sanderson Steven Sweet Yvonne Tam Hira Tanvir Quan Tran Minh Caroline L Trotter Shaun A Truelove Emilia Vynnycky Neff Walker Amy Winter Kim Woodruff Neil M Ferguson Katy AM Gaythorpe |
| author_facet | Jaspreet Toor Susy Echeverria-Londono Xiang Li Kaja Abbas Emily D Carter Hannah E Clapham Andrew Clark Margaret J de Villiers Kirsten Eilertson Matthew Ferrari Ivane Gamkrelidze Timothy B Hallett Wes R Hinsley Daniel Hogan John H Huber Michael L Jackson Kevin Jean Mark Jit Andromachi Karachaliou Petra Klepac Alicia Kraay Justin Lessler Xi Li Benjamin A Lopman Tewodaj Mengistu C Jessica E Metcalf Sean M Moore Shevanthi Nayagam Timos Papadopoulos T Alex Perkins Allison Portnoy Homie Razavi Devin Razavi-Shearer Stephen Resch Colin Sanderson Steven Sweet Yvonne Tam Hira Tanvir Quan Tran Minh Caroline L Trotter Shaun A Truelove Emilia Vynnycky Neff Walker Amy Winter Kim Woodruff Neil M Ferguson Katy AM Gaythorpe |
| author_sort | Jaspreet Toor |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000–2030 across 112 countries.
Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.
Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000–2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.
Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.
Funding: VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium’s modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1). |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T02:22:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a9148d620073475896adae63fa6b99e8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2050-084X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T02:22:35Z |
| publishDate | 2021-07-01 |
| publisher | eLife Sciences Publications Ltd |
| record_format | Article |
| series | eLife |
| spelling | doaj.art-a9148d620073475896adae63fa6b99e82022-12-22T03:52:05ZengeLife Sciences Publications LtdeLife2050-084X2021-07-011010.7554/eLife.67635Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 worldJaspreet Toor0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1510-397XSusy Echeverria-Londono1Xiang Li2Kaja Abbas3Emily D Carter4Hannah E Clapham5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2531-161XAndrew Clark6Margaret J de Villiers7Kirsten Eilertson8Matthew Ferrari9Ivane Gamkrelidze10Timothy B Hallett11Wes R Hinsley12Daniel Hogan13John H Huber14Michael L Jackson15Kevin Jean16https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6462-7185Mark Jit17https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6658-8255Andromachi Karachaliou18Petra Klepac19https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4132-3933Alicia Kraay20Justin Lessler21https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9741-8109Xi Li22Benjamin A Lopman23Tewodaj Mengistu24https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3475-3599C Jessica E Metcalf25https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3166-7521Sean M Moore26https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9062-6100Shevanthi Nayagam27Timos Papadopoulos28T Alex Perkins29https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7518-4014Allison Portnoy30Homie Razavi31Devin Razavi-Shearer32Stephen Resch33Colin Sanderson34Steven Sweet35Yvonne Tam36Hira Tanvir37Quan Tran Minh38Caroline L Trotter39Shaun A Truelove40https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0538-0607Emilia Vynnycky41Neff Walker42Amy Winter43Kim Woodruff44https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4618-8267Neil M Ferguson45Katy AM Gaythorpe46https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3734-9081MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United KingdomMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United KingdomMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United KingdomLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United KingdomBloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United StatesSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Vietnam; Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, Oxford, United KingdomLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United KingdomMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United KingdomColorado State University, Fort Collins, United StatesPennsylvania State University, State College, United StatesCenter for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, United StatesMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United KingdomMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United KingdomGavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Geneva, SwitzerlandDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United StatesKaiser Permanente Washington, Seattle, United StatesMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Laboratoire MESuRS and Unite PACRI, Institut Pasteur, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris, FranceLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, ChinaUniversity of Cambridge, Cambridge, United KingdomLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United KingdomRollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, United StatesBloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United StatesIndependent, Atlanta, United StatesRollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, United StatesGavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Geneva, SwitzerlandPrinceton University, Princeton NJ, United StatesDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United StatesMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Section of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Department of Metabolism, Digestion and Reproduction, Imperial College London, London, United KingdomPublic Health England, London, United Kingdom; University of Southampton, Southampton, United KingdomDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United StatesCenter for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, United StatesCenter for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, United StatesCenter for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, United StatesCenter for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, United StatesLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United KingdomCenter for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, United StatesBloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United StatesLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United KingdomDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United StatesUniversity of Cambridge, Cambridge, United KingdomBloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United StatesPublic Health England, London, United KingdomBloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United StatesBloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United StatesMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United KingdomMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United KingdomMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United KingdomBackground: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000–2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000–2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future. Funding: VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium’s modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).https://elifesciences.org/articles/67635vaccine impactmathematical modellingLMICs |
| spellingShingle | Jaspreet Toor Susy Echeverria-Londono Xiang Li Kaja Abbas Emily D Carter Hannah E Clapham Andrew Clark Margaret J de Villiers Kirsten Eilertson Matthew Ferrari Ivane Gamkrelidze Timothy B Hallett Wes R Hinsley Daniel Hogan John H Huber Michael L Jackson Kevin Jean Mark Jit Andromachi Karachaliou Petra Klepac Alicia Kraay Justin Lessler Xi Li Benjamin A Lopman Tewodaj Mengistu C Jessica E Metcalf Sean M Moore Shevanthi Nayagam Timos Papadopoulos T Alex Perkins Allison Portnoy Homie Razavi Devin Razavi-Shearer Stephen Resch Colin Sanderson Steven Sweet Yvonne Tam Hira Tanvir Quan Tran Minh Caroline L Trotter Shaun A Truelove Emilia Vynnycky Neff Walker Amy Winter Kim Woodruff Neil M Ferguson Katy AM Gaythorpe Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world eLife vaccine impact mathematical modelling LMICs |
| title | Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world |
| title_full | Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world |
| title_fullStr | Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world |
| title_full_unstemmed | Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world |
| title_short | Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world |
| title_sort | lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre covid 19 world |
| topic | vaccine impact mathematical modelling LMICs |
| url | https://elifesciences.org/articles/67635 |
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