Influence of the Coupling South Atlantic Convergence Zone-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (SACZ-ENSO) on the Projected Precipitation Changes over the Central Andes
There are no studies related to the influence of the coupling between the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern variability on future changes in the austral summer (December-February, DJF) precipitation over the central Andes. Therefore, we evaluated...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-05-01
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| Series: | Climate |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/5/77 |
| _version_ | 1797534950777421824 |
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| author | Juan C. Sulca Rosmeri P. da Rocha |
| author_facet | Juan C. Sulca Rosmeri P. da Rocha |
| author_sort | Juan C. Sulca |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | There are no studies related to the influence of the coupling between the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern variability on future changes in the austral summer (December-February, DJF) precipitation over the central Andes. Therefore, we evaluated the historical simulations (1980–2005) and projections (2070–2099) for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario of 25 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Moreover, we also consider the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) projections nested in three CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, MPI-ESM-MR, and HadGEM2-ES) under RCP 8.5. We separate the CMIP5 GCMs according to their abilities to simulate the nonlinear characteristics of ENSO and the SACZ for the historical period. We found that only three out of 25 CMIP5 GCMs (hereafter group A) simulate the nonlinear characteristics of ENSO and the SACZ during the historical period. Although most CMIP5 GCM project DJF precipitation decreases over the central Andes, group A project precipitation increases related to the projected increase in deep convection over the central Peruvian Amazon. On the regional scale, only RegGFDL (nested in a group A CMIP5 GCM) projects a statistically significant increase in DJF precipitation (~5–15%) over the northern central Andes and the central Peruvian Amazon. Conversely, all RegCM4 simulations project a decrease in DJF precipitation (~−10%) over the southern central Andes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T11:37:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a918338014a148c9bbea1f5ded0ad722 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2225-1154 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T11:37:46Z |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-a918338014a148c9bbea1f5ded0ad7222023-11-21T18:45:48ZengMDPI AGClimate2225-11542021-05-01957710.3390/cli9050077Influence of the Coupling South Atlantic Convergence Zone-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (SACZ-ENSO) on the Projected Precipitation Changes over the Central AndesJuan C. Sulca0Rosmeri P. da Rocha1Subdirección de Ciencias de la Atmósfera e Hidrósfera, Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima 15026, PeruDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, BrazilThere are no studies related to the influence of the coupling between the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern variability on future changes in the austral summer (December-February, DJF) precipitation over the central Andes. Therefore, we evaluated the historical simulations (1980–2005) and projections (2070–2099) for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario of 25 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Moreover, we also consider the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) projections nested in three CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, MPI-ESM-MR, and HadGEM2-ES) under RCP 8.5. We separate the CMIP5 GCMs according to their abilities to simulate the nonlinear characteristics of ENSO and the SACZ for the historical period. We found that only three out of 25 CMIP5 GCMs (hereafter group A) simulate the nonlinear characteristics of ENSO and the SACZ during the historical period. Although most CMIP5 GCM project DJF precipitation decreases over the central Andes, group A project precipitation increases related to the projected increase in deep convection over the central Peruvian Amazon. On the regional scale, only RegGFDL (nested in a group A CMIP5 GCM) projects a statistically significant increase in DJF precipitation (~5–15%) over the northern central Andes and the central Peruvian Amazon. Conversely, all RegCM4 simulations project a decrease in DJF precipitation (~−10%) over the southern central Andes.https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/5/77austral summer precipitationCentral Andesclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Juan C. Sulca Rosmeri P. da Rocha Influence of the Coupling South Atlantic Convergence Zone-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (SACZ-ENSO) on the Projected Precipitation Changes over the Central Andes Climate austral summer precipitation Central Andes climate change |
| title | Influence of the Coupling South Atlantic Convergence Zone-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (SACZ-ENSO) on the Projected Precipitation Changes over the Central Andes |
| title_full | Influence of the Coupling South Atlantic Convergence Zone-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (SACZ-ENSO) on the Projected Precipitation Changes over the Central Andes |
| title_fullStr | Influence of the Coupling South Atlantic Convergence Zone-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (SACZ-ENSO) on the Projected Precipitation Changes over the Central Andes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Influence of the Coupling South Atlantic Convergence Zone-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (SACZ-ENSO) on the Projected Precipitation Changes over the Central Andes |
| title_short | Influence of the Coupling South Atlantic Convergence Zone-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (SACZ-ENSO) on the Projected Precipitation Changes over the Central Andes |
| title_sort | influence of the coupling south atlantic convergence zone el nino southern oscillation sacz enso on the projected precipitation changes over the central andes |
| topic | austral summer precipitation Central Andes climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/9/5/77 |
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