US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate
US surface O<sub>3</sub> responds to varying global-to-regional precursor emissions, climate, and extreme weather, with implications for designing effective air quality control policies. We examine these conjoined processes with observations and global chemistry-climate model (GFDL-AM3)...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2017-03-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/2943/2017/acp-17-2943-2017.pdf |
| _version_ | 1828778145394720768 |
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| author | M. Lin L. W. Horowitz R. Payton A. M. Fiore G. Tonnesen |
| author_facet | M. Lin L. W. Horowitz R. Payton A. M. Fiore G. Tonnesen |
| author_sort | M. Lin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | US surface O<sub>3</sub> responds to varying global-to-regional precursor
emissions, climate, and extreme weather, with implications for designing
effective air quality control policies. We examine these conjoined processes
with observations and global chemistry-climate model (GFDL-AM3) hindcasts
over 1980–2014. The model captures the salient features of observed trends
in daily maximum 8 h average O<sub>3</sub>: (1) increases over East Asia (up to
2 ppb yr<sup>−1</sup>), (2) springtime increases at western US (WUS) rural sites
(0.2–0.5 ppb yr<sup>−1</sup>) with a baseline sampling approach,
and (3) summertime decreases, largest at the 95th percentile, and
wintertime increases in the 50th to 5th percentiles over the eastern
US (EUS). Asian NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions have tripled since 1990, contributing as
much as 65 % to modeled springtime background O<sub>3</sub> increases
(0.3–0.5 ppb yr<sup>−1</sup>) over the WUS, outpacing O<sub>3</sub> decreases attained
via 50 % US NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emission controls. Methane increases over this
period contribute only 15 % of the WUS background O<sub>3</sub> increase.
Springtime O<sub>3</sub> observed in Denver has increased at a rate similar to
remote rural sites. During summer, increasing Asian emissions approximately
offset the benefits of US emission reductions, leading to weak or
insignificant observed O<sub>3</sub> trends at WUS rural sites. Mean springtime WUS
O<sub>3</sub> is projected to increase by ∼ 10 ppb from 2010 to 2030 under
the RCP8.5 global change scenario. While historical wildfire emissions can
enhance summertime monthly mean O<sub>3</sub> at individual sites by 2–8 ppb,
high temperatures and the associated buildup of O<sub>3</sub> produced from
regional anthropogenic emissions contribute most to elevating observed
summertime O<sub>3</sub> throughout the USA. GFDL-AM3 captures the observed
interannual variability of summertime EUS O<sub>3</sub>. However, O<sub>3</sub>
deposition sink to vegetation must be reduced by 35 % for the model to
accurately simulate observed high-O<sub>3</sub> anomalies during the severe drought
of 1988. Regional NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> reductions alleviated the O<sub>3</sub> buildup during
the recent heat waves of 2011 and 2012 relative to earlier heat waves (e.g.,
1988, 1999). The O<sub>3</sub> decreases driven by NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> controls were more
pronounced in the southeastern US, where the seasonal onset of biogenic
isoprene emissions and NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>-sensitive O<sub>3</sub> production occurs earlier
than in the northeast. Without emission controls, the 95th percentile
summertime O<sub>3</sub> in the EUS would have increased by
0.2–0.4 ppb yr<sup>−1</sup> over 1988–2014 due to more frequent hot extremes
and rising biogenic isoprene emissions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T16:36:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a93eb368bd7f40588120612455ab34ae |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T16:36:21Z |
| publishDate | 2017-03-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-a93eb368bd7f40588120612455ab34ae2022-12-22T00:58:27ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242017-03-011742943297010.5194/acp-17-2943-2017US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climateM. Lin0L. W. Horowitz1R. Payton2A. M. Fiore3G. Tonnesen4Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USANOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USAUS Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, Air Program, Denver, CO 80202, USALamont-Doherty Earth-Observatory and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USAUS Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, Air Program, Denver, CO 80202, USAUS surface O<sub>3</sub> responds to varying global-to-regional precursor emissions, climate, and extreme weather, with implications for designing effective air quality control policies. We examine these conjoined processes with observations and global chemistry-climate model (GFDL-AM3) hindcasts over 1980–2014. The model captures the salient features of observed trends in daily maximum 8 h average O<sub>3</sub>: (1) increases over East Asia (up to 2 ppb yr<sup>−1</sup>), (2) springtime increases at western US (WUS) rural sites (0.2–0.5 ppb yr<sup>−1</sup>) with a baseline sampling approach, and (3) summertime decreases, largest at the 95th percentile, and wintertime increases in the 50th to 5th percentiles over the eastern US (EUS). Asian NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emissions have tripled since 1990, contributing as much as 65 % to modeled springtime background O<sub>3</sub> increases (0.3–0.5 ppb yr<sup>−1</sup>) over the WUS, outpacing O<sub>3</sub> decreases attained via 50 % US NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> emission controls. Methane increases over this period contribute only 15 % of the WUS background O<sub>3</sub> increase. Springtime O<sub>3</sub> observed in Denver has increased at a rate similar to remote rural sites. During summer, increasing Asian emissions approximately offset the benefits of US emission reductions, leading to weak or insignificant observed O<sub>3</sub> trends at WUS rural sites. Mean springtime WUS O<sub>3</sub> is projected to increase by ∼ 10 ppb from 2010 to 2030 under the RCP8.5 global change scenario. While historical wildfire emissions can enhance summertime monthly mean O<sub>3</sub> at individual sites by 2–8 ppb, high temperatures and the associated buildup of O<sub>3</sub> produced from regional anthropogenic emissions contribute most to elevating observed summertime O<sub>3</sub> throughout the USA. GFDL-AM3 captures the observed interannual variability of summertime EUS O<sub>3</sub>. However, O<sub>3</sub> deposition sink to vegetation must be reduced by 35 % for the model to accurately simulate observed high-O<sub>3</sub> anomalies during the severe drought of 1988. Regional NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> reductions alleviated the O<sub>3</sub> buildup during the recent heat waves of 2011 and 2012 relative to earlier heat waves (e.g., 1988, 1999). The O<sub>3</sub> decreases driven by NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> controls were more pronounced in the southeastern US, where the seasonal onset of biogenic isoprene emissions and NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>-sensitive O<sub>3</sub> production occurs earlier than in the northeast. Without emission controls, the 95th percentile summertime O<sub>3</sub> in the EUS would have increased by 0.2–0.4 ppb yr<sup>−1</sup> over 1988–2014 due to more frequent hot extremes and rising biogenic isoprene emissions.http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/2943/2017/acp-17-2943-2017.pdf |
| spellingShingle | M. Lin L. W. Horowitz R. Payton A. M. Fiore G. Tonnesen US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate |
| title_full | US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate |
| title_fullStr | US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate |
| title_short | US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate |
| title_sort | us surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014 quantifying the roles of rising asian emissions domestic controls wildfires and climate |
| url | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/2943/2017/acp-17-2943-2017.pdf |
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