Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake Naroch
As a result of the conducted investigations of the level fluctuations in lake naroch the initial data are divided into 3 components: a polynomial regression that makes it possible to find out an independent on time law of trajectory, a periodic component of sinusoidal type and a residual sequence of...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Sciendo
2016-03-01
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| Series: | Quaestiones Geographicae |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1515/quageo-2016-0005 |
| _version_ | 1831773427376062464 |
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| author | Kirvel Ivan Volchak Alexander Parfomuk Sergey |
| author_facet | Kirvel Ivan Volchak Alexander Parfomuk Sergey |
| author_sort | Kirvel Ivan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As a result of the conducted investigations of the level fluctuations in lake naroch the initial data are divided into 3 components: a polynomial regression that makes it possible to find out an independent on time law of trajectory, a periodic component of sinusoidal type and a residual sequence of independent random quantities. Modeling of the trajectory fluctuations is based on the deterministic part, consisting of the regression of the 8th order and periodic component, and also the random part, consisting of independent equally distributed quantities. Using this model it can be modeled the trajectory of the level fluctuations in lake naroch. The modeled trajectory by 200 years long demonstrated the probability of exceeding of maximum annual level, equal 1 per cent. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T08:36:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a93fbf0a089c418aa5f52798b0ea1623 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2081-6383 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T08:36:51Z |
| publishDate | 2016-03-01 |
| publisher | Sciendo |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Quaestiones Geographicae |
| spelling | doaj.art-a93fbf0a089c418aa5f52798b0ea16232022-12-21T18:32:21ZengSciendoQuaestiones Geographicae2081-63832016-03-01351576210.1515/quageo-2016-0005Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake NarochKirvel Ivan0Volchak Alexander1Parfomuk Sergey2Institute of Geography and regional Studies, Pomeranian University in Słupsk, PolandComputer Science and Applied Mathematics, Brest State Technical University, Brest, BelarusComputer Science and Applied Mathematics, Brest State Technical University, Brest, BelarusAs a result of the conducted investigations of the level fluctuations in lake naroch the initial data are divided into 3 components: a polynomial regression that makes it possible to find out an independent on time law of trajectory, a periodic component of sinusoidal type and a residual sequence of independent random quantities. Modeling of the trajectory fluctuations is based on the deterministic part, consisting of the regression of the 8th order and periodic component, and also the random part, consisting of independent equally distributed quantities. Using this model it can be modeled the trajectory of the level fluctuations in lake naroch. The modeled trajectory by 200 years long demonstrated the probability of exceeding of maximum annual level, equal 1 per cent.https://doi.org/10.1515/quageo-2016-0005lake level changesmodellingtrajectoryrecent pastlake narochbelarus |
| spellingShingle | Kirvel Ivan Volchak Alexander Parfomuk Sergey Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake Naroch Quaestiones Geographicae lake level changes modelling trajectory recent past lake naroch belarus |
| title | Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake Naroch |
| title_full | Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake Naroch |
| title_fullStr | Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake Naroch |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake Naroch |
| title_short | Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake Naroch |
| title_sort | modeling of the trajectory of the level fluctuations in lake naroch |
| topic | lake level changes modelling trajectory recent past lake naroch belarus |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1515/quageo-2016-0005 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kirvelivan modelingofthetrajectoryofthelevelfluctuationsinlakenaroch AT volchakalexander modelingofthetrajectoryofthelevelfluctuationsinlakenaroch AT parfomuksergey modelingofthetrajectoryofthelevelfluctuationsinlakenaroch |