Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998–2019 and consequences for projections through 2050
Abstract We aimed to estimate the absolute and age-standardized number of hip fractures in Sweden during the past two decades to produce time trends and future projections. We used nationwide register data from 1998 to 2019 and a validated algorithm to calculate the annual absolute and age-standardi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-51363-6 |
| _version_ | 1797363460557766656 |
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| author | Karl Michaëlsson John A. Baron Liisa Byberg Susanna C. Larsson Håkan Melhus Rolf Gedeborg |
| author_facet | Karl Michaëlsson John A. Baron Liisa Byberg Susanna C. Larsson Håkan Melhus Rolf Gedeborg |
| author_sort | Karl Michaëlsson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We aimed to estimate the absolute and age-standardized number of hip fractures in Sweden during the past two decades to produce time trends and future projections. We used nationwide register data from 1998 to 2019 and a validated algorithm to calculate the annual absolute and age-standardized number of incident hip fractures over time. The total hip fracture burden was 335,399 incident events over the 22 years, with a change from 16,180 in 1998 to 13,929 in 2019, a 14% decrease. One decade after the index hip fracture event, 80% of the patients had died, and 11% had a new hip fracture. After considering the steady growth of the older population, the decline in the age-standardized number of hip fractures from 1998 through 2019 was 29.2% (95% CI 28.1–30.2%) in women and 29.3% (95% CI 27.5–30.7%) in men. With a continued similar reduction in hip fracture incidence, we can predict that 14,800 hip fractures will occur in 2034 and 12,000 in 2050 despite doubling the oldest old (≥ 80 years). Without an algorithm, a naïve estimate of the total number of hip fractures over the study period was 539,947, with a second 10-year hip fracture risk of 35%. We note an ongoing decline in the absolute and age-standardized actual number of hip fractures in Sweden, with consequences for future projections. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:21:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a962f186cef94b2bba95295ca80b65cb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:21:42Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-a962f186cef94b2bba95295ca80b65cb2024-01-07T12:20:30ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-01-0114111210.1038/s41598-024-51363-6Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998–2019 and consequences for projections through 2050Karl Michaëlsson0John A. Baron1Liisa Byberg2Susanna C. Larsson3Håkan Melhus4Rolf Gedeborg5Department of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala UniversityDepartment of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala UniversityDepartment of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala UniversityDepartment of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala UniversityDepartment of Medical Sciences, Uppsala UniversityDepartment of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala UniversityAbstract We aimed to estimate the absolute and age-standardized number of hip fractures in Sweden during the past two decades to produce time trends and future projections. We used nationwide register data from 1998 to 2019 and a validated algorithm to calculate the annual absolute and age-standardized number of incident hip fractures over time. The total hip fracture burden was 335,399 incident events over the 22 years, with a change from 16,180 in 1998 to 13,929 in 2019, a 14% decrease. One decade after the index hip fracture event, 80% of the patients had died, and 11% had a new hip fracture. After considering the steady growth of the older population, the decline in the age-standardized number of hip fractures from 1998 through 2019 was 29.2% (95% CI 28.1–30.2%) in women and 29.3% (95% CI 27.5–30.7%) in men. With a continued similar reduction in hip fracture incidence, we can predict that 14,800 hip fractures will occur in 2034 and 12,000 in 2050 despite doubling the oldest old (≥ 80 years). Without an algorithm, a naïve estimate of the total number of hip fractures over the study period was 539,947, with a second 10-year hip fracture risk of 35%. We note an ongoing decline in the absolute and age-standardized actual number of hip fractures in Sweden, with consequences for future projections.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-51363-6 |
| spellingShingle | Karl Michaëlsson John A. Baron Liisa Byberg Susanna C. Larsson Håkan Melhus Rolf Gedeborg Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998–2019 and consequences for projections through 2050 Scientific Reports |
| title | Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998–2019 and consequences for projections through 2050 |
| title_full | Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998–2019 and consequences for projections through 2050 |
| title_fullStr | Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998–2019 and consequences for projections through 2050 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998–2019 and consequences for projections through 2050 |
| title_short | Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998–2019 and consequences for projections through 2050 |
| title_sort | declining hip fracture burden in sweden 1998 2019 and consequences for projections through 2050 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-51363-6 |
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