Explosive Behavior in COVID-19 and Policy Responses: Lessons Learned for Public Health Management
Since the first case of COVID-19 in Turkey, there has been a lingering question as elsewhere in the world: “When will or should the government impose severe restrictions to protect public health?” From a public health perspective, there is value in developing a model to support proactive implementat...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
SAGE Publishing
2024-03-01
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| Series: | SAGE Open |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440231224772 |
| _version_ | 1827330211433152512 |
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| author | Lokman Gunduz Ahmet Faruk Aysan Rifgi Bugra Bagci Hatice Karahan |
| author_facet | Lokman Gunduz Ahmet Faruk Aysan Rifgi Bugra Bagci Hatice Karahan |
| author_sort | Lokman Gunduz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Since the first case of COVID-19 in Turkey, there has been a lingering question as elsewhere in the world: “When will or should the government impose severe restrictions to protect public health?” From a public health perspective, there is value in developing a model to support proactive implementation of social policies. This study aimed to show the benefits of using a novel econometric test (the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test) to detect explosive behavior (bubbles) in Turkey’s daily COVID-19 cases and deaths. Results from the analysis demonstrated a link between identified explosive episodes and critical public health decisions, especially in the case of daily new deaths. They also showed a negative relationship between the formation of exuberant behavior during the pandemic and the vaccination rate. Public health policymakers can incorporate this method into their arsenal to evaluate the overall health situation in combating the pandemic and respond accordingly. Furthermore, among the lessons learned from the Turkish experience is the importance of having a coronavirus scientific advisory board in the decision-making process and the ability to promptly implement policy measures. JEL Codes: C22, C58, I10, I18 |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T16:02:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a98fdfff88fc4edf98680d6ae9071208 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2158-2440 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T16:02:17Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | SAGE Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | SAGE Open |
| spelling | doaj.art-a98fdfff88fc4edf98680d6ae90712082024-03-04T19:04:06ZengSAGE PublishingSAGE Open2158-24402024-03-011410.1177/21582440231224772Explosive Behavior in COVID-19 and Policy Responses: Lessons Learned for Public Health ManagementLokman Gunduz0Ahmet Faruk Aysan1Rifgi Bugra Bagci2Hatice Karahan3Fatih Sultan Mehmet Vakif University, Istanbul, TurkeyHamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, QatarIstanbul Sabahattin Zaim University, TurkeyIstanbul Medipol University, TurkeySince the first case of COVID-19 in Turkey, there has been a lingering question as elsewhere in the world: “When will or should the government impose severe restrictions to protect public health?” From a public health perspective, there is value in developing a model to support proactive implementation of social policies. This study aimed to show the benefits of using a novel econometric test (the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test) to detect explosive behavior (bubbles) in Turkey’s daily COVID-19 cases and deaths. Results from the analysis demonstrated a link between identified explosive episodes and critical public health decisions, especially in the case of daily new deaths. They also showed a negative relationship between the formation of exuberant behavior during the pandemic and the vaccination rate. Public health policymakers can incorporate this method into their arsenal to evaluate the overall health situation in combating the pandemic and respond accordingly. Furthermore, among the lessons learned from the Turkish experience is the importance of having a coronavirus scientific advisory board in the decision-making process and the ability to promptly implement policy measures. JEL Codes: C22, C58, I10, I18https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440231224772 |
| spellingShingle | Lokman Gunduz Ahmet Faruk Aysan Rifgi Bugra Bagci Hatice Karahan Explosive Behavior in COVID-19 and Policy Responses: Lessons Learned for Public Health Management SAGE Open |
| title | Explosive Behavior in COVID-19 and Policy Responses: Lessons Learned for Public Health Management |
| title_full | Explosive Behavior in COVID-19 and Policy Responses: Lessons Learned for Public Health Management |
| title_fullStr | Explosive Behavior in COVID-19 and Policy Responses: Lessons Learned for Public Health Management |
| title_full_unstemmed | Explosive Behavior in COVID-19 and Policy Responses: Lessons Learned for Public Health Management |
| title_short | Explosive Behavior in COVID-19 and Policy Responses: Lessons Learned for Public Health Management |
| title_sort | explosive behavior in covid 19 and policy responses lessons learned for public health management |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440231224772 |
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