A comparative analysis to forecast apartment burglaries in Vienna, Austria, based on repeat and near repeat victimization
Abstract In this paper, we introduce two methods to forecast apartment burglaries that are based on repeat and near repeat victimization. While the first approach, the “heuristic method” generates buffer areas around each new apartment burglary, the second approach concentrates on forecasting near r...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2018-08-01
|
| Series: | Crime Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40163-018-0083-7 |
| _version_ | 1818825730746744832 |
|---|---|
| author | Philip Glasner Shane D. Johnson Michael Leitner |
| author_facet | Philip Glasner Shane D. Johnson Michael Leitner |
| author_sort | Philip Glasner |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In this paper, we introduce two methods to forecast apartment burglaries that are based on repeat and near repeat victimization. While the first approach, the “heuristic method” generates buffer areas around each new apartment burglary, the second approach concentrates on forecasting near repeat chain links. These near repeat chain links are events that follow a near repeat pair of an originating and (near) repeat event that is close in space and in time. We name this approach the “near repeat chain method”. This research analyzes apartment burglaries from November 2013 to November 2016 in Vienna, Austria. The overall research goal is to investigate whether the near repeat chain method shows better prediction efficiencies (using a capture rate and the prediction accuracy index) while producing fewer prediction areas. Results show that the near repeat chain method proves to be the more efficient compared to the heuristic method for all bandwidth combinations analyzed in this research. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T00:16:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a9b81d1ce9c346c48f49d497dfcd3514 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2193-7680 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T00:16:25Z |
| publishDate | 2018-08-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Crime Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-a9b81d1ce9c346c48f49d497dfcd35142022-12-21T20:45:47ZengBMCCrime Science2193-76802018-08-017111310.1186/s40163-018-0083-7A comparative analysis to forecast apartment burglaries in Vienna, Austria, based on repeat and near repeat victimizationPhilip Glasner0Shane D. Johnson1Michael Leitner2Department of Geoinformatics–Z_GIS, University of SalzburgJill Dando Institute of Security and Crime Science, University College LondonDepartment of Geoinformatics–Z_GIS, University of SalzburgAbstract In this paper, we introduce two methods to forecast apartment burglaries that are based on repeat and near repeat victimization. While the first approach, the “heuristic method” generates buffer areas around each new apartment burglary, the second approach concentrates on forecasting near repeat chain links. These near repeat chain links are events that follow a near repeat pair of an originating and (near) repeat event that is close in space and in time. We name this approach the “near repeat chain method”. This research analyzes apartment burglaries from November 2013 to November 2016 in Vienna, Austria. The overall research goal is to investigate whether the near repeat chain method shows better prediction efficiencies (using a capture rate and the prediction accuracy index) while producing fewer prediction areas. Results show that the near repeat chain method proves to be the more efficient compared to the heuristic method for all bandwidth combinations analyzed in this research.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40163-018-0083-7RepeatsNear repeatsBurglaryPredictive mappingCrime preventionVienna |
| spellingShingle | Philip Glasner Shane D. Johnson Michael Leitner A comparative analysis to forecast apartment burglaries in Vienna, Austria, based on repeat and near repeat victimization Crime Science Repeats Near repeats Burglary Predictive mapping Crime prevention Vienna |
| title | A comparative analysis to forecast apartment burglaries in Vienna, Austria, based on repeat and near repeat victimization |
| title_full | A comparative analysis to forecast apartment burglaries in Vienna, Austria, based on repeat and near repeat victimization |
| title_fullStr | A comparative analysis to forecast apartment burglaries in Vienna, Austria, based on repeat and near repeat victimization |
| title_full_unstemmed | A comparative analysis to forecast apartment burglaries in Vienna, Austria, based on repeat and near repeat victimization |
| title_short | A comparative analysis to forecast apartment burglaries in Vienna, Austria, based on repeat and near repeat victimization |
| title_sort | comparative analysis to forecast apartment burglaries in vienna austria based on repeat and near repeat victimization |
| topic | Repeats Near repeats Burglary Predictive mapping Crime prevention Vienna |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40163-018-0083-7 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT philipglasner acomparativeanalysistoforecastapartmentburglariesinviennaaustriabasedonrepeatandnearrepeatvictimization AT shanedjohnson acomparativeanalysistoforecastapartmentburglariesinviennaaustriabasedonrepeatandnearrepeatvictimization AT michaelleitner acomparativeanalysistoforecastapartmentburglariesinviennaaustriabasedonrepeatandnearrepeatvictimization AT philipglasner comparativeanalysistoforecastapartmentburglariesinviennaaustriabasedonrepeatandnearrepeatvictimization AT shanedjohnson comparativeanalysistoforecastapartmentburglariesinviennaaustriabasedonrepeatandnearrepeatvictimization AT michaelleitner comparativeanalysistoforecastapartmentburglariesinviennaaustriabasedonrepeatandnearrepeatvictimization |