A Comprehensive Methodology for the Statistical Characterization of Solar Irradiation: Application to the Case of Morocco
The prediction and characterization of solar irradiation relies mostly on either the use of complex models or on complicated mathematical techniques, such as artificial neural network (ANN)-based algorithms. This mathematical complexity might hamper their use by businesses and project developers whe...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-03-01
|
| Series: | Applied Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/5/3365 |
| _version_ | 1797615671883857920 |
|---|---|
| author | Naoufal Bouhorma Helena Martín Jordi de la Hoz Sergio Coronas |
| author_facet | Naoufal Bouhorma Helena Martín Jordi de la Hoz Sergio Coronas |
| author_sort | Naoufal Bouhorma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The prediction and characterization of solar irradiation relies mostly on either the use of complex models or on complicated mathematical techniques, such as artificial neural network (ANN)-based algorithms. This mathematical complexity might hamper their use by businesses and project developers when assessing the solar resource. In this study, a simple but comprehensive methodology for characterizing the solar resource for a project is presented. It is based on the determination of the best probability distribution function (PDF) of the solar irradiation for a specific location, assuming that the knowledge of statistical techniques may be more widely extended than other more complex mathematical methods. The presented methodology was tested on 23 cities across Morocco, given the high interest in solar investments in the country. As a result, a new database for solar irradiation values depending on historical data is provided for Morocco. The results show the great existing variety of PDFs for the solar irradiation data at the different months and cities, which demonstrates the need for undertaking a proper characterization of the irradiation when the assessment of solar energy projects is involved. When it is simply needed to embed the radiation uncertainty in the analysis, as is the case of the techno-economic valuation of solar energy assets, the presented methodology can reach this objective with much less complexity and less demanding input data. Moreover, its application is not limited to solar resource assessment, but can also be easily used in other fields, such as meteorology and climate change studies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T07:30:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a9d20bce51a24040be6cfb34a0cb3ec6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T07:30:00Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-a9d20bce51a24040be6cfb34a0cb3ec62023-11-17T07:22:50ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172023-03-01135336510.3390/app13053365A Comprehensive Methodology for the Statistical Characterization of Solar Irradiation: Application to the Case of MoroccoNaoufal Bouhorma0Helena Martín1Jordi de la Hoz2Sergio Coronas3Department of Electrical Engineering, Barcelona East School of Engineering (EEBE), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), C. Eduard Maristany, 10, 08019 Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Electrical Engineering, Barcelona East School of Engineering (EEBE), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), C. Eduard Maristany, 10, 08019 Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Electrical Engineering, Barcelona East School of Engineering (EEBE), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), C. Eduard Maristany, 10, 08019 Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Electrical Engineering, Barcelona East School of Engineering (EEBE), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), C. Eduard Maristany, 10, 08019 Barcelona, SpainThe prediction and characterization of solar irradiation relies mostly on either the use of complex models or on complicated mathematical techniques, such as artificial neural network (ANN)-based algorithms. This mathematical complexity might hamper their use by businesses and project developers when assessing the solar resource. In this study, a simple but comprehensive methodology for characterizing the solar resource for a project is presented. It is based on the determination of the best probability distribution function (PDF) of the solar irradiation for a specific location, assuming that the knowledge of statistical techniques may be more widely extended than other more complex mathematical methods. The presented methodology was tested on 23 cities across Morocco, given the high interest in solar investments in the country. As a result, a new database for solar irradiation values depending on historical data is provided for Morocco. The results show the great existing variety of PDFs for the solar irradiation data at the different months and cities, which demonstrates the need for undertaking a proper characterization of the irradiation when the assessment of solar energy projects is involved. When it is simply needed to embed the radiation uncertainty in the analysis, as is the case of the techno-economic valuation of solar energy assets, the presented methodology can reach this objective with much less complexity and less demanding input data. Moreover, its application is not limited to solar resource assessment, but can also be easily used in other fields, such as meteorology and climate change studies.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/5/3365solar energyirradiationsatellite datapredictive modelsprobability distribution functionMorocco |
| spellingShingle | Naoufal Bouhorma Helena Martín Jordi de la Hoz Sergio Coronas A Comprehensive Methodology for the Statistical Characterization of Solar Irradiation: Application to the Case of Morocco Applied Sciences solar energy irradiation satellite data predictive models probability distribution function Morocco |
| title | A Comprehensive Methodology for the Statistical Characterization of Solar Irradiation: Application to the Case of Morocco |
| title_full | A Comprehensive Methodology for the Statistical Characterization of Solar Irradiation: Application to the Case of Morocco |
| title_fullStr | A Comprehensive Methodology for the Statistical Characterization of Solar Irradiation: Application to the Case of Morocco |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Comprehensive Methodology for the Statistical Characterization of Solar Irradiation: Application to the Case of Morocco |
| title_short | A Comprehensive Methodology for the Statistical Characterization of Solar Irradiation: Application to the Case of Morocco |
| title_sort | comprehensive methodology for the statistical characterization of solar irradiation application to the case of morocco |
| topic | solar energy irradiation satellite data predictive models probability distribution function Morocco |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/5/3365 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT naoufalbouhorma acomprehensivemethodologyforthestatisticalcharacterizationofsolarirradiationapplicationtothecaseofmorocco AT helenamartin acomprehensivemethodologyforthestatisticalcharacterizationofsolarirradiationapplicationtothecaseofmorocco AT jordidelahoz acomprehensivemethodologyforthestatisticalcharacterizationofsolarirradiationapplicationtothecaseofmorocco AT sergiocoronas acomprehensivemethodologyforthestatisticalcharacterizationofsolarirradiationapplicationtothecaseofmorocco AT naoufalbouhorma comprehensivemethodologyforthestatisticalcharacterizationofsolarirradiationapplicationtothecaseofmorocco AT helenamartin comprehensivemethodologyforthestatisticalcharacterizationofsolarirradiationapplicationtothecaseofmorocco AT jordidelahoz comprehensivemethodologyforthestatisticalcharacterizationofsolarirradiationapplicationtothecaseofmorocco AT sergiocoronas comprehensivemethodologyforthestatisticalcharacterizationofsolarirradiationapplicationtothecaseofmorocco |