Seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwaves
Abstract Marine heatwaves damage marine ecosystems and services, with effects identified mostly below the ocean surface. To create a truly user-relevant detection system, it is necessary to provide subsurface forecasts. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal forecasting of subsurface marin...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00892-5 |
| _version_ | 1797789582812512256 |
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| author | Ronan McAdam Simona Masina Silvio Gualdi |
| author_facet | Ronan McAdam Simona Masina Silvio Gualdi |
| author_sort | Ronan McAdam |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Marine heatwaves damage marine ecosystems and services, with effects identified mostly below the ocean surface. To create a truly user-relevant detection system, it is necessary to provide subsurface forecasts. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwaves by using upper ocean heat content. We validate surface and subsurface events forecast by an operational dynamical seasonal forecasting system against satellite observations and an ocean reanalysis, respectively. We show that indicators of summer events (number of days, strongest intensity, and number of events) are predicted with greater skill than surface equivalents across much of the global ocean. We identify regions which do not display significant surface skill but could still benefit from accurate subsurface early warning tools (e.g., the mid-latitudes). The dynamical system used here outperforms a persistence model and is not widely influenced by warming trends, demonstrating the ability of the system to capture relevant subseasonal variability. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:52:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a9eaa72c9fdc423fb9e6482705595533 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:52:44Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj.art-a9eaa72c9fdc423fb9e64827055955332023-07-02T11:27:37ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352023-06-014111110.1038/s43247-023-00892-5Seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwavesRonan McAdam0Simona Masina1Silvio Gualdi2Ocean modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici—CMCCOcean modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici—CMCCClimate Simulations and Predictions Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici—CMCCAbstract Marine heatwaves damage marine ecosystems and services, with effects identified mostly below the ocean surface. To create a truly user-relevant detection system, it is necessary to provide subsurface forecasts. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwaves by using upper ocean heat content. We validate surface and subsurface events forecast by an operational dynamical seasonal forecasting system against satellite observations and an ocean reanalysis, respectively. We show that indicators of summer events (number of days, strongest intensity, and number of events) are predicted with greater skill than surface equivalents across much of the global ocean. We identify regions which do not display significant surface skill but could still benefit from accurate subsurface early warning tools (e.g., the mid-latitudes). The dynamical system used here outperforms a persistence model and is not widely influenced by warming trends, demonstrating the ability of the system to capture relevant subseasonal variability.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00892-5 |
| spellingShingle | Ronan McAdam Simona Masina Silvio Gualdi Seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwaves Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwaves |
| title_full | Seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwaves |
| title_fullStr | Seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwaves |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwaves |
| title_short | Seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwaves |
| title_sort | seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwaves |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00892-5 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ronanmcadam seasonalforecastingofsubsurfacemarineheatwaves AT simonamasina seasonalforecastingofsubsurfacemarineheatwaves AT silviogualdi seasonalforecastingofsubsurfacemarineheatwaves |