Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security
The Russian–Ukrainian conflict has led to the disruption of global supply chains, thus posing a threat to food security. The study aimed to assess the short-term impact of the conflict on food supply and global retail food prices resulting from the disruption of agri-food exports from Ukraine after...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Agriculture |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/11/2154 |
| _version_ | 1827640951398465536 |
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| author | Mariusz Hamulczuk Karolina Pawlak Joanna Stefańczyk Jarosław Gołębiewski |
| author_facet | Mariusz Hamulczuk Karolina Pawlak Joanna Stefańczyk Jarosław Gołębiewski |
| author_sort | Mariusz Hamulczuk |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Russian–Ukrainian conflict has led to the disruption of global supply chains, thus posing a threat to food security. The study aimed to assess the short-term impact of the conflict on food supply and global retail food prices resulting from the disruption of agri-food exports from Ukraine after the war outbreak. To assess the impact of the conflict on retail prices worldwide, the actual food price level during the conflict period was compared with the counterfactual values obtained from the forecasting models. The research points to a significant decline in Ukraine’s commodity exports at the beginning of the conflict leading to a supply gap for cereals in particular, affecting global access to staple foods. As a result, global food commodity prices rose sharply, however, the upsurge was short-lived, and as early as July 2022 price indices returned to their pre-war levels. On the other hand, in most regions worldwide the gradual and persistent increase in retail food prices was observed after the war outbreak. The study also found strong regional differentiation in the response of retail food prices to the conflict due to various specific factors that exacerbated or mitigated the impact of the war. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:06:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-a9f8b72b37924eb98259a06600eb9ab3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-0472 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:06:38Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agriculture |
| spelling | doaj.art-a9f8b72b37924eb98259a06600eb9ab32023-11-24T14:23:25ZengMDPI AGAgriculture2077-04722023-11-011311215410.3390/agriculture13112154Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food SecurityMariusz Hamulczuk0Karolina Pawlak1Joanna Stefańczyk2Jarosław Gołębiewski3Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, PolandFaculty of Economics, Poznan University of Life Sciences, 60-637 Poznan, PolandInstitute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, PolandInstitute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, PolandThe Russian–Ukrainian conflict has led to the disruption of global supply chains, thus posing a threat to food security. The study aimed to assess the short-term impact of the conflict on food supply and global retail food prices resulting from the disruption of agri-food exports from Ukraine after the war outbreak. To assess the impact of the conflict on retail prices worldwide, the actual food price level during the conflict period was compared with the counterfactual values obtained from the forecasting models. The research points to a significant decline in Ukraine’s commodity exports at the beginning of the conflict leading to a supply gap for cereals in particular, affecting global access to staple foods. As a result, global food commodity prices rose sharply, however, the upsurge was short-lived, and as early as July 2022 price indices returned to their pre-war levels. On the other hand, in most regions worldwide the gradual and persistent increase in retail food prices was observed after the war outbreak. The study also found strong regional differentiation in the response of retail food prices to the conflict due to various specific factors that exacerbated or mitigated the impact of the war.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/11/2154agri-food pricesinternational tradethe Russia–Ukraine warfood security |
| spellingShingle | Mariusz Hamulczuk Karolina Pawlak Joanna Stefańczyk Jarosław Gołębiewski Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security Agriculture agri-food prices international trade the Russia–Ukraine war food security |
| title | Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security |
| title_full | Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security |
| title_fullStr | Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security |
| title_full_unstemmed | Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security |
| title_short | Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security |
| title_sort | agri food supply and retail food prices during the russia ukraine conflict s early stage implications for food security |
| topic | agri-food prices international trade the Russia–Ukraine war food security |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/11/2154 |
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