Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming
<p>Record-breaking statistics are combined here with a geographic mode of exploration to introduce a record-breaking map. We examine time series of sea surface temperature (SST) values and show that high SST records have been broken far more frequently than the expected rate for a trend-free r...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/16111/2022/acp-22-16111-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797979260316549120 |
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| author | E. T. Sena I. Koren O. Altaratz A. B. Kostinski |
| author_facet | E. T. Sena I. Koren O. Altaratz A. B. Kostinski |
| author_sort | E. T. Sena |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Record-breaking statistics are combined here with a
geographic mode of exploration to introduce a record-breaking map. We
examine time series of sea surface temperature (SST) values and show that
high SST records have been broken far more frequently than the expected rate for a trend-free random variable (TFRV) over the vast majority of oceans (83 % of the grid cells). This, together with the asymmetry between high
and low records and their deviation from a TFRV, indicates SST warming over
most oceans, obtained using a distribution-independent, robust, and
simple-to-use method. The spatial patterns of this warming are coherent and
reveal islands of cooling, such as the “cold blob” in the North Atlantic and a surprising elliptical area in the Southern Ocean, near the Ross Sea gyre, not previously reported. The method was also applied to evaluate a global climate model (GCM), which reproduced the observed records during the study period. The distribution of records from the GCM pre-industrial (PI) control
run samples was similar to the one from a TFRV, suggesting that the
contribution of a suitably constrained internal variability to the observed
record-breaking trends is negligible. Future forecasts show striking SST
trends, with even more frequent high records and less frequent low records.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T05:36:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-aa02ee5b0a3b4590b509d835bc918b2b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T05:36:06Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-aa02ee5b0a3b4590b509d835bc918b2b2022-12-22T12:16:12ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242022-12-0122161111612210.5194/acp-22-16111-2022Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warmingE. T. Sena0I. Koren1O. Altaratz2A. B. Kostinski3Multidisciplinary Department, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, BrazilDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Sciences, Rehovot, IsraelDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Sciences, Rehovot, IsraelDepartment of Physics, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI, USA<p>Record-breaking statistics are combined here with a geographic mode of exploration to introduce a record-breaking map. We examine time series of sea surface temperature (SST) values and show that high SST records have been broken far more frequently than the expected rate for a trend-free random variable (TFRV) over the vast majority of oceans (83 % of the grid cells). This, together with the asymmetry between high and low records and their deviation from a TFRV, indicates SST warming over most oceans, obtained using a distribution-independent, robust, and simple-to-use method. The spatial patterns of this warming are coherent and reveal islands of cooling, such as the “cold blob” in the North Atlantic and a surprising elliptical area in the Southern Ocean, near the Ross Sea gyre, not previously reported. The method was also applied to evaluate a global climate model (GCM), which reproduced the observed records during the study period. The distribution of records from the GCM pre-industrial (PI) control run samples was similar to the one from a TFRV, suggesting that the contribution of a suitably constrained internal variability to the observed record-breaking trends is negligible. Future forecasts show striking SST trends, with even more frequent high records and less frequent low records.</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/16111/2022/acp-22-16111-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | E. T. Sena I. Koren O. Altaratz A. B. Kostinski Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming |
| title_full | Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming |
| title_fullStr | Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming |
| title_short | Record-breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming |
| title_sort | record breaking statistics detect islands of cooling in a sea of warming |
| url | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/16111/2022/acp-22-16111-2022.pdf |
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