Adapting to the projected epidemics of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Korea under climate change scenarios
Fusarium head blight (FHB) of wheat, mainly caused by Fusarium graminearum Schwabe, is an emerging threat to wheat production in Korea under a changing climate. The disease occurrence and accumulation of associated trichothecene mycotoxins in wheat kernels strongly coincide with warm and wet environ...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-12-01
|
| Series: | Frontiers in Plant Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2022.1040752/full |
| _version_ | 1811187467953373184 |
|---|---|
| author | Jin-Yong Jung Jin-Hee Kim Minju Baek Chuloh Cho Jaepil Cho Junhwan Kim Willingthon Pavan Willingthon Pavan Kwang-Hyung Kim |
| author_facet | Jin-Yong Jung Jin-Hee Kim Minju Baek Chuloh Cho Jaepil Cho Junhwan Kim Willingthon Pavan Willingthon Pavan Kwang-Hyung Kim |
| author_sort | Jin-Yong Jung |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Fusarium head blight (FHB) of wheat, mainly caused by Fusarium graminearum Schwabe, is an emerging threat to wheat production in Korea under a changing climate. The disease occurrence and accumulation of associated trichothecene mycotoxins in wheat kernels strongly coincide with warm and wet environments during flowering. Recently, the International Panel for Climate Change released the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) climate change scenarios with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). In this study, we adopted GIBSIM, an existing mechanistic model developed in Brazil to estimate the risk infection index of wheat FHB, to simulate the potential FHB epidemics in Korea using the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios of CMIP6. The GIBSIM model simulates FHB infection risk from airborne inoculum density and infection frequency using temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity during the flowering period. First, wheat heading dates, during which GIBSIM runs, were predicted over suitable areas of winter wheat cultivation using a crop development rate model for wheat phenology and downscaled SSP scenarios. Second, an integrated model combining all results of wheat suitability, heading dates, and FHB infection risks from the SSP scenarios showed a gradual increase in FHB epidemics towards 2100, with different temporal and spatial patterns of varying magnitudes depending on the scenarios. These results indicate that proactive management strategies need to be seriously considered in the near future to minimize the potential impacts of the FHB epidemic under climate change in Korea. Therefore, available wheat cultivars with early or late heading dates were used in the model simulations as a realistic adaptation measure. As a result, wheat cultivars with early heading dates showed significant decreases in FHB epidemics in future periods, emphasizing the importance of effective adaptation measures against the projected increase in FHB epidemics in Korea under climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T14:03:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-aa60135c70eb42f28f84ad6ef40a5d1a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1664-462X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T14:03:59Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Plant Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-aa60135c70eb42f28f84ad6ef40a5d1a2022-12-22T04:20:00ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Plant Science1664-462X2022-12-011310.3389/fpls.2022.10407521040752Adapting to the projected epidemics of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Korea under climate change scenariosJin-Yong Jung0Jin-Hee Kim1Minju Baek2Chuloh Cho3Jaepil Cho4Junhwan Kim5Willingthon Pavan6Willingthon Pavan7Kwang-Hyung Kim8Department of Agricultural Biotechnology, Seoul National University, Seoul, South KoreaNational Center for Agro-Meteorology, Seoul National University, Seoul, South KoreaDepartment of Agricultural Biotechnology, Seoul National University, Seoul, South KoreaWheat Research Team, National Institute of Crop Science, Wanju, South KoreaConvergence Center for Watershed Management, Integrated Watershed Management Institute, Suwon, South KoreaKorea National University of Agriculture and Fisheries, Jeonju, South KoreaInternational Fertilizer Development Center, Muscle Shoals, AL, United StatesGraduate Program in Applied Computing, University of Passo Fundo, Passo Fundo, RS, BrazilDepartment of Agricultural Biotechnology, Seoul National University, Seoul, South KoreaFusarium head blight (FHB) of wheat, mainly caused by Fusarium graminearum Schwabe, is an emerging threat to wheat production in Korea under a changing climate. The disease occurrence and accumulation of associated trichothecene mycotoxins in wheat kernels strongly coincide with warm and wet environments during flowering. Recently, the International Panel for Climate Change released the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) climate change scenarios with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). In this study, we adopted GIBSIM, an existing mechanistic model developed in Brazil to estimate the risk infection index of wheat FHB, to simulate the potential FHB epidemics in Korea using the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios of CMIP6. The GIBSIM model simulates FHB infection risk from airborne inoculum density and infection frequency using temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity during the flowering period. First, wheat heading dates, during which GIBSIM runs, were predicted over suitable areas of winter wheat cultivation using a crop development rate model for wheat phenology and downscaled SSP scenarios. Second, an integrated model combining all results of wheat suitability, heading dates, and FHB infection risks from the SSP scenarios showed a gradual increase in FHB epidemics towards 2100, with different temporal and spatial patterns of varying magnitudes depending on the scenarios. These results indicate that proactive management strategies need to be seriously considered in the near future to minimize the potential impacts of the FHB epidemic under climate change in Korea. Therefore, available wheat cultivars with early or late heading dates were used in the model simulations as a realistic adaptation measure. As a result, wheat cultivars with early heading dates showed significant decreases in FHB epidemics in future periods, emphasizing the importance of effective adaptation measures against the projected increase in FHB epidemics in Korea under climate change.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2022.1040752/fullwheatfusarium head blightshared socioeconomic pathwayCMIP6climate changeadaptation measure |
| spellingShingle | Jin-Yong Jung Jin-Hee Kim Minju Baek Chuloh Cho Jaepil Cho Junhwan Kim Willingthon Pavan Willingthon Pavan Kwang-Hyung Kim Adapting to the projected epidemics of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Korea under climate change scenarios Frontiers in Plant Science wheat fusarium head blight shared socioeconomic pathway CMIP6 climate change adaptation measure |
| title | Adapting to the projected epidemics of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Korea under climate change scenarios |
| title_full | Adapting to the projected epidemics of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Korea under climate change scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Adapting to the projected epidemics of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Korea under climate change scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Adapting to the projected epidemics of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Korea under climate change scenarios |
| title_short | Adapting to the projected epidemics of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Korea under climate change scenarios |
| title_sort | adapting to the projected epidemics of fusarium head blight of wheat in korea under climate change scenarios |
| topic | wheat fusarium head blight shared socioeconomic pathway CMIP6 climate change adaptation measure |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2022.1040752/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jinyongjung adaptingtotheprojectedepidemicsoffusariumheadblightofwheatinkoreaunderclimatechangescenarios AT jinheekim adaptingtotheprojectedepidemicsoffusariumheadblightofwheatinkoreaunderclimatechangescenarios AT minjubaek adaptingtotheprojectedepidemicsoffusariumheadblightofwheatinkoreaunderclimatechangescenarios AT chulohcho adaptingtotheprojectedepidemicsoffusariumheadblightofwheatinkoreaunderclimatechangescenarios AT jaepilcho adaptingtotheprojectedepidemicsoffusariumheadblightofwheatinkoreaunderclimatechangescenarios AT junhwankim adaptingtotheprojectedepidemicsoffusariumheadblightofwheatinkoreaunderclimatechangescenarios AT willingthonpavan adaptingtotheprojectedepidemicsoffusariumheadblightofwheatinkoreaunderclimatechangescenarios AT willingthonpavan adaptingtotheprojectedepidemicsoffusariumheadblightofwheatinkoreaunderclimatechangescenarios AT kwanghyungkim adaptingtotheprojectedepidemicsoffusariumheadblightofwheatinkoreaunderclimatechangescenarios |