Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods
Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2018-04-01
|
| Series: | The Cryosphere |
| Online Access: | https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/1195/2018/tc-12-1195-2018.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818108878147026944 |
|---|---|
| author | S. Harrison J. S. Kargel C. Huggel J. Reynolds D. H. Shugar R. A. Betts R. A. Betts A. Emmer A. Emmer N. Glasser U. K. Haritashya J. Klimeš L. Reinhardt Y. Schaub A. Wiltshire D. Regmi V. Vilímek |
| author_facet | S. Harrison J. S. Kargel C. Huggel J. Reynolds D. H. Shugar R. A. Betts R. A. Betts A. Emmer A. Emmer N. Glasser U. K. Haritashya J. Klimeš L. Reinhardt Y. Schaub A. Wiltshire D. Regmi V. Vilímek |
| author_sort | S. Harrison |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier
recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is
at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal
assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on
lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain
glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on
downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated
with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the
historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future
global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency
and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response
to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and
regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades
even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have
suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier
recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly
happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in
glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict
increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd
century. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T02:22:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-aae528b7547247dd8807d8ec380ab77d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1994-0416 1994-0424 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T02:22:21Z |
| publishDate | 2018-04-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Cryosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-aae528b7547247dd8807d8ec380ab77d2022-12-22T01:24:02ZengCopernicus PublicationsThe Cryosphere1994-04161994-04242018-04-01121195120910.5194/tc-12-1195-2018Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floodsS. Harrison0J. S. Kargel1C. Huggel2J. Reynolds3D. H. Shugar4R. A. Betts5R. A. Betts6A. Emmer7A. Emmer8N. Glasser9U. K. Haritashya10J. Klimeš11L. Reinhardt12Y. Schaub13A. Wiltshire14D. Regmi15V. Vilímek16College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, UKPlanetary Science Institute, Tucson, AZ 85719, USADepartment of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich, SwitzerlandReynolds International Ltd, Suite 2, Broncoed House, Broncoed Business Park, Wrexham Road, Mold, Flintshire, UKWater, Sediment, Hazards, and Earth-surface Dynamics Laboratory, University of Washington Tacoma, WA, 98402, USACollege of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, UKDepartment of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Albertov 6, 128 43 Prague, Czech RepublicDepartment of Human Dimensions of Global Change, Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 986/4a, 60300 Brno, Czech RepublicCentre for Glaciology, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Wales, SY23 3DB, Aberystwyth, UKDepartment of Geology, University of Dayton, 300 College Park, Dayton, OH 45469-2364, USADepartment of Engineering Geology, Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics, Czech Academy of Sciences, V Holešovičkách 41, 182 09 Prague 8, Czech RepublicCollege of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, UKDepartment of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich, SwitzerlandMet Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, UKHimalayan Research Center, Lainchaur, Kathmandu, NepalDepartment of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Albertov 6, 128 43 Prague, Czech RepublicDespite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/1195/2018/tc-12-1195-2018.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. Harrison J. S. Kargel C. Huggel J. Reynolds D. H. Shugar R. A. Betts R. A. Betts A. Emmer A. Emmer N. Glasser U. K. Haritashya J. Klimeš L. Reinhardt Y. Schaub A. Wiltshire D. Regmi V. Vilímek Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods The Cryosphere |
| title | Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
| title_full | Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
| title_fullStr | Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
| title_short | Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
| title_sort | climate change and the global pattern of moraine dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
| url | https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/1195/2018/tc-12-1195-2018.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sharrison climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT jskargel climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT chuggel climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT jreynolds climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT dhshugar climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT rabetts climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT rabetts climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT aemmer climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT aemmer climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT nglasser climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT ukharitashya climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT jklimes climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT lreinhardt climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT yschaub climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT awiltshire climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT dregmi climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods AT vvilimek climatechangeandtheglobalpatternofmorainedammedglaciallakeoutburstfloods |