Patterns of Past and Future Droughts in Permanent Lowland Rivers
The problem of droughts is acute due to climate change. The study aims to assess the temporal and spatial drought patterns in Lithuanian lowland rivers in the past and to project these phenomena according to climate scenarios and models. Drought analysis was based on Standardized Precipitation Index...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/1/71 |
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| author | Serhii Nazarenko Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė Diana Šarauskienė Darius Jakimavičius |
| author_facet | Serhii Nazarenko Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė Diana Šarauskienė Darius Jakimavičius |
| author_sort | Serhii Nazarenko |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The problem of droughts is acute due to climate change. The study aims to assess the temporal and spatial drought patterns in Lithuanian lowland rivers in the past and to project these phenomena according to climate scenarios and models. Drought analysis was based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). To evaluate the past patterns, the hydrometeorological data of 17 rivers were used from 1961–2020. Future drought changes were analyzed in 2021–2100 according to the selected RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) using the hydrological model HBV. There were different patterns of droughts in three hydrological regions of Lithuania (Western, Central and Southeastern). The Southeastern region was more prone to extreme summer hydrological droughts, and they had a shorter accumulation period compared to the other two regions. SPI and RDI indices showed that the number of dry months and the minimum value of the index increased, extending the accumulation period. The highest correlation was recorded between RDI-12/SPI-12 and SDI-12. The amplitude between extremely wet and dry values of river runoff will increase according to RCP8.5. The projections indicated that hydrological drought intensity in the Central region is expected to increase under both analyzed RCPs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:12:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-aaf4ef186f9f402d85a3e18d71ee1ee8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:12:37Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-aaf4ef186f9f402d85a3e18d71ee1ee82023-11-23T12:32:25ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412022-01-011417110.3390/w14010071Patterns of Past and Future Droughts in Permanent Lowland RiversSerhii Nazarenko0Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė1Diana Šarauskienė2Darius Jakimavičius3Laboratory of Hydrology, Lithuanian Energy Institute, 44403 Kaunas, LithuaniaLaboratory of Hydrology, Lithuanian Energy Institute, 44403 Kaunas, LithuaniaLaboratory of Hydrology, Lithuanian Energy Institute, 44403 Kaunas, LithuaniaLaboratory of Hydrology, Lithuanian Energy Institute, 44403 Kaunas, LithuaniaThe problem of droughts is acute due to climate change. The study aims to assess the temporal and spatial drought patterns in Lithuanian lowland rivers in the past and to project these phenomena according to climate scenarios and models. Drought analysis was based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). To evaluate the past patterns, the hydrometeorological data of 17 rivers were used from 1961–2020. Future drought changes were analyzed in 2021–2100 according to the selected RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) using the hydrological model HBV. There were different patterns of droughts in three hydrological regions of Lithuania (Western, Central and Southeastern). The Southeastern region was more prone to extreme summer hydrological droughts, and they had a shorter accumulation period compared to the other two regions. SPI and RDI indices showed that the number of dry months and the minimum value of the index increased, extending the accumulation period. The highest correlation was recorded between RDI-12/SPI-12 and SDI-12. The amplitude between extremely wet and dry values of river runoff will increase according to RCP8.5. The projections indicated that hydrological drought intensity in the Central region is expected to increase under both analyzed RCPs.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/1/71meteorological droughtSPI and RDI indiceshydrological droughtSDI indexhistorical droughtsdroughts projections |
| spellingShingle | Serhii Nazarenko Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė Diana Šarauskienė Darius Jakimavičius Patterns of Past and Future Droughts in Permanent Lowland Rivers Water meteorological drought SPI and RDI indices hydrological drought SDI index historical droughts droughts projections |
| title | Patterns of Past and Future Droughts in Permanent Lowland Rivers |
| title_full | Patterns of Past and Future Droughts in Permanent Lowland Rivers |
| title_fullStr | Patterns of Past and Future Droughts in Permanent Lowland Rivers |
| title_full_unstemmed | Patterns of Past and Future Droughts in Permanent Lowland Rivers |
| title_short | Patterns of Past and Future Droughts in Permanent Lowland Rivers |
| title_sort | patterns of past and future droughts in permanent lowland rivers |
| topic | meteorological drought SPI and RDI indices hydrological drought SDI index historical droughts droughts projections |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/1/71 |
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