Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil
In 2004 the National Household Survey (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostras de Domicílios - PNAD) estimated the prevalence of food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. However, PNAD data cannot be disaggregated at the municipal level. The objective of this study was to build a statistical model to predict...
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Sociedad Latinoamericana de Nutrición
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| Series: | Archivos Latinoamericanos de Nutrición |
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| Online Access: | http://www.scielo.org.ve/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0004-06222010000200002&lng=en&tlng=en |
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| author | Muriel Bauermann Gubert Maria Helena D’Aquino Benício Joseane Padilha da Silva Tereza Etsuko da Costa Rosa Soane Mota dos Santos Leonor Maria Pacheco dos Santos |
| author_facet | Muriel Bauermann Gubert Maria Helena D’Aquino Benício Joseane Padilha da Silva Tereza Etsuko da Costa Rosa Soane Mota dos Santos Leonor Maria Pacheco dos Santos |
| author_sort | Muriel Bauermann Gubert |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In 2004 the National Household Survey (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostras de Domicílios - PNAD) estimated the prevalence of food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. However, PNAD data cannot be disaggregated at the municipal level. The objective of this study was to build a statistical model to predict severe food insecurity for Brazilian municipalities based on the PNAD dataset. Exclusion criteria were: incomplete food security data (19.30%); informants younger than 18 years old (0.07%); collective households (0.05%); households headed by indigenous persons (0.19%). The modeling was carried out in three stages, beginning with the selection of variables related to food insecurity using univariate logistic regression. The variables chosen to construct the municipal estimates were selected from those included in PNAD as well as the 2000 Census. Multivariate logistic regression was then initiated, removing the non-significant variables with odds ratios adjusted by multiple logistic regression. The Wald Test was applied to check the significance of the coefficients in the logistic equation. The final model included the variables: per capita income; years of schooling; race and gender of the household head; urban or rural residence; access to public water supply; presence of children; total number of household inhabitants and state of residence. The adequacy of the model was tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.561) and ROC curve (area=0.823). Tests indicated that the model has strong predictive power and can be used to determine household food insecurity in Brazilian municipalities, suggesting that similar predictive models may be useful tools in other Latin American countries. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T03:47:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-aaf927015be34c9281309e9c24231a45 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0004-0622 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T03:47:51Z |
| publisher | Sociedad Latinoamericana de Nutrición |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Archivos Latinoamericanos de Nutrición |
| spelling | doaj.art-aaf927015be34c9281309e9c24231a452023-01-02T02:28:16ZengSociedad Latinoamericana de NutriciónArchivos Latinoamericanos de Nutrición0004-0622602119125S0004-06222010000200002Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in BrazilMuriel Bauermann Gubert0Maria Helena D’Aquino Benício1Joseane Padilha da Silva2Tereza Etsuko da Costa Rosa3Soane Mota dos Santos4Leonor Maria Pacheco dos Santos5University of BrasíliaUniversity of BrasíliaUniversity of BrasíliaUniversity of BrasíliaUniversity of BrasíliaUniversity of BrasíliaIn 2004 the National Household Survey (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostras de Domicílios - PNAD) estimated the prevalence of food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. However, PNAD data cannot be disaggregated at the municipal level. The objective of this study was to build a statistical model to predict severe food insecurity for Brazilian municipalities based on the PNAD dataset. Exclusion criteria were: incomplete food security data (19.30%); informants younger than 18 years old (0.07%); collective households (0.05%); households headed by indigenous persons (0.19%). The modeling was carried out in three stages, beginning with the selection of variables related to food insecurity using univariate logistic regression. The variables chosen to construct the municipal estimates were selected from those included in PNAD as well as the 2000 Census. Multivariate logistic regression was then initiated, removing the non-significant variables with odds ratios adjusted by multiple logistic regression. The Wald Test was applied to check the significance of the coefficients in the logistic equation. The final model included the variables: per capita income; years of schooling; race and gender of the household head; urban or rural residence; access to public water supply; presence of children; total number of household inhabitants and state of residence. The adequacy of the model was tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.561) and ROC curve (area=0.823). Tests indicated that the model has strong predictive power and can be used to determine household food insecurity in Brazilian municipalities, suggesting that similar predictive models may be useful tools in other Latin American countries.http://www.scielo.org.ve/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0004-06222010000200002&lng=en&tlng=enpredictive statistical modelsevere food insecuritymunicipalities |
| spellingShingle | Muriel Bauermann Gubert Maria Helena D’Aquino Benício Joseane Padilha da Silva Tereza Etsuko da Costa Rosa Soane Mota dos Santos Leonor Maria Pacheco dos Santos Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil Archivos Latinoamericanos de Nutrición predictive statistical model severe food insecurity municipalities |
| title | Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil |
| title_full | Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil |
| title_fullStr | Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil |
| title_full_unstemmed | Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil |
| title_short | Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil |
| title_sort | use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in brazil |
| topic | predictive statistical model severe food insecurity municipalities |
| url | http://www.scielo.org.ve/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0004-06222010000200002&lng=en&tlng=en |
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