Use of historical data to assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China
Species distribution models have been widely used to assess changes in species distribution under climate change. However, these models often neglect anthropogenic drivers of range shifts or contractions, and general circulation models may introduce uncertainties. Therefore, quantifying the impacts...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989419307747 |
| _version_ | 1819109828550721536 |
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| author | Chao Zhang Wancai Xia Xiaofeng Luan Hongfei Zhuang Tauheed Ullah Khan Gong Zhang Shuhong Wu |
| author_facet | Chao Zhang Wancai Xia Xiaofeng Luan Hongfei Zhuang Tauheed Ullah Khan Gong Zhang Shuhong Wu |
| author_sort | Chao Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Species distribution models have been widely used to assess changes in species distribution under climate change. However, these models often neglect anthropogenic drivers of range shifts or contractions, and general circulation models may introduce uncertainties. Therefore, quantifying the impacts of both climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on species distribution remains a challenge. Long-term historical data may overcome the uncertainties introduced by variability in global climate models and thus provide ecologists with comprehensive information on the long-term effects of anthropogenic disturbance. The black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) has undergone a dramatic population decline since the late 20th century and is endangered in China. We used ensemble forecasting to assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the distribution of this species in northeast China from the 1970s to the 2000s. Our results suggested a decline in the predicted distribution area from 339,638 km2 in the 1970s to 219,083 km2 in the 2000s, representing a total reduction of 35.50%. We estimated that the range contraction caused by climate change equated to 22,038 km2, while that due to anthropogenic disturbance to 98,517 km2 over this time period. Therefore, the observed range contraction for this species is primarily attributable to anthropogenic disturbance. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T03:32:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ab080cde95a949c89d6c35631f761078 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2351-9894 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T03:32:02Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| spelling | doaj.art-ab080cde95a949c89d6c35631f7610782022-12-21T18:40:29ZengElsevierGlobal Ecology and Conservation2351-98942020-06-0122Use of historical data to assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast ChinaChao Zhang0Wancai Xia1Xiaofeng Luan2Hongfei Zhuang3Tauheed Ullah Khan4Gong Zhang5Shuhong Wu6School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, ChinaSchool of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, ChinaState Administration of Forestry and Grassland (National Park Administration), Beijing, ChinaSchool of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China; Corresponding author.Species distribution models have been widely used to assess changes in species distribution under climate change. However, these models often neglect anthropogenic drivers of range shifts or contractions, and general circulation models may introduce uncertainties. Therefore, quantifying the impacts of both climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on species distribution remains a challenge. Long-term historical data may overcome the uncertainties introduced by variability in global climate models and thus provide ecologists with comprehensive information on the long-term effects of anthropogenic disturbance. The black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) has undergone a dramatic population decline since the late 20th century and is endangered in China. We used ensemble forecasting to assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the distribution of this species in northeast China from the 1970s to the 2000s. Our results suggested a decline in the predicted distribution area from 339,638 km2 in the 1970s to 219,083 km2 in the 2000s, representing a total reduction of 35.50%. We estimated that the range contraction caused by climate change equated to 22,038 km2, while that due to anthropogenic disturbance to 98,517 km2 over this time period. Therefore, the observed range contraction for this species is primarily attributable to anthropogenic disturbance.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989419307747Tetrao urogalloidesClimate changeAnthropogenic disturbanceHistorical dataRange contraction |
| spellingShingle | Chao Zhang Wancai Xia Xiaofeng Luan Hongfei Zhuang Tauheed Ullah Khan Gong Zhang Shuhong Wu Use of historical data to assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China Global Ecology and Conservation Tetrao urogalloides Climate change Anthropogenic disturbance Historical data Range contraction |
| title | Use of historical data to assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China |
| title_full | Use of historical data to assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China |
| title_fullStr | Use of historical data to assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Use of historical data to assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China |
| title_short | Use of historical data to assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China |
| title_sort | use of historical data to assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the black billed capercaillie tetrao urogalloides in northeast china |
| topic | Tetrao urogalloides Climate change Anthropogenic disturbance Historical data Range contraction |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989419307747 |
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