Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin
Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River (YR) basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. Many studies have investigated the changes in renewable water resources under various...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2017-02-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/791/2017/hess-21-791-2017.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819094676577189888 |
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| author | Y. Yin Q. Tang X. Liu X. Zhang |
| author_facet | Y. Yin Q. Tang X. Liu X. Zhang |
| author_sort | Y. Yin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Increasing population and socio-economic development have put
great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River (YR) basin. The
anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water
stress. Many studies have investigated the changes in renewable water
resources under various climate change scenarios, but few have considered
the joint pressure from both climate change and socio-economic development.
In this study, we assess water scarcity under various socio-economic
pathways with emphasis on the impact of water scarcity on food production.
The water demands in the 21st century are estimated based on the newly
developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and renewable water supply
is estimated using the climate projections under the Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The assessment predicts that the
renewable water resources would decrease slightly then increase. The
domestic and industrial water withdrawals are projected to increase in the
next a few decades and then remain at the high level or decrease slightly
during the 21st century. The increase in water withdrawals will put
the middle and lower reaches in a condition of severe water scarcity
beginning in the next a few decades. If 40 % of the renewable water
resources were used to sustain ecosystems, a portion of irrigated land would
have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture, which would lead to a 2–11 %
reduction in food production. This study highlights the links between water,
food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs
should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T23:31:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ab0e5c974b2a4f46b180f1e2df63ab50 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T23:31:12Z |
| publishDate | 2017-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-ab0e5c974b2a4f46b180f1e2df63ab502022-12-21T18:46:30ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382017-02-0121279180410.5194/hess-21-791-2017Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basinY. Yin0Q. Tang1X. Liu2X. Zhang3Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaIncreasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River (YR) basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. Many studies have investigated the changes in renewable water resources under various climate change scenarios, but few have considered the joint pressure from both climate change and socio-economic development. In this study, we assess water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways with emphasis on the impact of water scarcity on food production. The water demands in the 21st century are estimated based on the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and renewable water supply is estimated using the climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The assessment predicts that the renewable water resources would decrease slightly then increase. The domestic and industrial water withdrawals are projected to increase in the next a few decades and then remain at the high level or decrease slightly during the 21st century. The increase in water withdrawals will put the middle and lower reaches in a condition of severe water scarcity beginning in the next a few decades. If 40 % of the renewable water resources were used to sustain ecosystems, a portion of irrigated land would have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture, which would lead to a 2–11 % reduction in food production. This study highlights the links between water, food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/791/2017/hess-21-791-2017.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Y. Yin Q. Tang X. Liu X. Zhang Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin |
| title_full | Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin |
| title_fullStr | Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin |
| title_short | Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin |
| title_sort | water scarcity under various socio economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the yellow river basin |
| url | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/791/2017/hess-21-791-2017.pdf |
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