Environmental Temperature and Thermal Indices: What Is the Most Effective Predictor of Heat-Related Mortality in Different Geographical Contexts?
The aim of this study is to identify the most effective thermal predictor of heat-related very-elderly mortality in two cities located in different geographical contexts of central Italy. We tested the hypothesis that use of the state-of-the-art rational thermal indices, the Universal Thermal Climat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Hindawi Limited
2014-01-01
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| Series: | The Scientific World Journal |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/961750 |
| _version_ | 1798044726695297024 |
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| author | Marco Morabito Alfonso Crisci Alessandro Messeri Valerio Capecchi Pietro Amedeo Modesti Gian Franco Gensini Simone Orlandini |
| author_facet | Marco Morabito Alfonso Crisci Alessandro Messeri Valerio Capecchi Pietro Amedeo Modesti Gian Franco Gensini Simone Orlandini |
| author_sort | Marco Morabito |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The aim of this study is to identify the most effective thermal predictor of heat-related very-elderly mortality in two cities located in different geographical contexts of central Italy. We tested the hypothesis that use of the state-of-the-art rational thermal indices, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), might provide an improvement in predicting heat-related mortality with respect to other predictors. Data regarding very elderly people (≥75 years) who died in inland and coastal cities from 2006 to 2008 (May–October) and meteorological and air pollution were obtained from the regional mortality and environmental archives. Rational (UTCI) and direct thermal indices represented by a set of bivariate/multivariate apparent temperature indices were assessed. Correlation analyses and generalized additive models were applied. The Akaike weights were used for the best model selection. Direct multivariate indices showed the highest correlations with UTCI and were also selected as the best thermal predictors of heat-related mortality for both inland and coastal cities. Conversely, the UTCI was never identified as the best thermal predictor. The use of direct multivariate indices, which also account for the extra effect of wind speed and/or solar radiation, revealed the best fitting with all-cause, very-elderly mortality attributable to heat stress. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T23:08:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ab2b7bffc310400f9c3aa83cd76c723a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2356-6140 1537-744X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T23:08:56Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Hindawi Limited |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Scientific World Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-ab2b7bffc310400f9c3aa83cd76c723a2022-12-22T03:57:55ZengHindawi LimitedThe Scientific World Journal2356-61401537-744X2014-01-01201410.1155/2014/961750961750Environmental Temperature and Thermal Indices: What Is the Most Effective Predictor of Heat-Related Mortality in Different Geographical Contexts?Marco Morabito0Alfonso Crisci1Alessandro Messeri2Valerio Capecchi3Pietro Amedeo Modesti4Gian Franco Gensini5Simone Orlandini6Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, ItalyInstitute of Biometeorology, National Research Council, Via Giovanni Caproni 8, 50145 Florence, ItalyInterdepartmental Centre of Bioclimatology, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, ItalyInstitute of Biometeorology, National Research Council, Via Giovanni Caproni 8, 50145 Florence, ItalyInterdepartmental Centre of Bioclimatology, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, ItalyInterdepartmental Centre of Bioclimatology, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, ItalyDepartment of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, ItalyThe aim of this study is to identify the most effective thermal predictor of heat-related very-elderly mortality in two cities located in different geographical contexts of central Italy. We tested the hypothesis that use of the state-of-the-art rational thermal indices, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), might provide an improvement in predicting heat-related mortality with respect to other predictors. Data regarding very elderly people (≥75 years) who died in inland and coastal cities from 2006 to 2008 (May–October) and meteorological and air pollution were obtained from the regional mortality and environmental archives. Rational (UTCI) and direct thermal indices represented by a set of bivariate/multivariate apparent temperature indices were assessed. Correlation analyses and generalized additive models were applied. The Akaike weights were used for the best model selection. Direct multivariate indices showed the highest correlations with UTCI and were also selected as the best thermal predictors of heat-related mortality for both inland and coastal cities. Conversely, the UTCI was never identified as the best thermal predictor. The use of direct multivariate indices, which also account for the extra effect of wind speed and/or solar radiation, revealed the best fitting with all-cause, very-elderly mortality attributable to heat stress.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/961750 |
| spellingShingle | Marco Morabito Alfonso Crisci Alessandro Messeri Valerio Capecchi Pietro Amedeo Modesti Gian Franco Gensini Simone Orlandini Environmental Temperature and Thermal Indices: What Is the Most Effective Predictor of Heat-Related Mortality in Different Geographical Contexts? The Scientific World Journal |
| title | Environmental Temperature and Thermal Indices: What Is the Most Effective Predictor of Heat-Related Mortality in Different Geographical Contexts? |
| title_full | Environmental Temperature and Thermal Indices: What Is the Most Effective Predictor of Heat-Related Mortality in Different Geographical Contexts? |
| title_fullStr | Environmental Temperature and Thermal Indices: What Is the Most Effective Predictor of Heat-Related Mortality in Different Geographical Contexts? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Environmental Temperature and Thermal Indices: What Is the Most Effective Predictor of Heat-Related Mortality in Different Geographical Contexts? |
| title_short | Environmental Temperature and Thermal Indices: What Is the Most Effective Predictor of Heat-Related Mortality in Different Geographical Contexts? |
| title_sort | environmental temperature and thermal indices what is the most effective predictor of heat related mortality in different geographical contexts |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/961750 |
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