A score model based on pancreatic steatosis and fibrosis and pancreatic duct diameter to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after Pancreatoduodenectomy
Abstract Purposes To establish a scoring model for the risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). Methods PD Patients from 7 institutions in 2 independent sets: developmental (n = 457) and validation cohort (n = 152) were retrospectively enrolled and analyz...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2019-07-01
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| Series: | BMC Surgery |
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| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12893-019-0534-4 |
| _version_ | 1819063508556316672 |
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| author | Guo Xingjun Zhu Feng Yang Meiwen Jiang Jianxin He Zheng Gao Jun Huang Tao Zhao Rui Zhang Leida Wang Min Qin Renyi FACS |
| author_facet | Guo Xingjun Zhu Feng Yang Meiwen Jiang Jianxin He Zheng Gao Jun Huang Tao Zhao Rui Zhang Leida Wang Min Qin Renyi FACS |
| author_sort | Guo Xingjun |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Purposes To establish a scoring model for the risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). Methods PD Patients from 7 institutions in 2 independent sets: developmental (n = 457) and validation cohort (n = 152) were retrospectively enrolled and analyzed. Pancreatic Fibrosis (PF) and Pancreatic Steatosis (PS) were assessed by pathological examination of the pancreatic stump. Results Stepwise univariate and multivariate analysis indicated that pancreatic duct diameter ≤ 3 mm, increased PS and decreased PF were independent risk factors for POPF and Clinically Relevant Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula (CR-POPF). Based on the relative weight and odds ratio of each factor in the POPF, a simplified scoring model was developed. And patients were stratified into high-risk group (22~28 points), medium-risk group (15~21 points) and low-risk group (8~14 points). The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated that the Area under the curve for the predictive model was 0.868 and 0.887 in the model design group and the external validation group. Conclusions This study establishes a simplified scoring model based on accurately and quantitatively measuring the PS, PF and pancreatic duct diameter. The scoring model accurately predicted the risk of POPF. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T15:15:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ab400b8435d642b988efba91c5a3eb4c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2482 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T15:15:47Z |
| publishDate | 2019-07-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Surgery |
| spelling | doaj.art-ab400b8435d642b988efba91c5a3eb4c2022-12-21T18:59:10ZengBMCBMC Surgery1471-24822019-07-011911810.1186/s12893-019-0534-4A score model based on pancreatic steatosis and fibrosis and pancreatic duct diameter to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after PancreatoduodenectomyGuo Xingjun0Zhu Feng1Yang Meiwen2Jiang Jianxin3He Zheng4Gao Jun5Huang Tao6Zhao Rui7Zhang Leida8Wang Min9Qin Renyi10FACSDepartment of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Affiliated Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyDepartment of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Affiliated Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of Third Military Medical UniversityDepartment of Hepatic-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Hepatic-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Yichang Central People’s HospitalDepartment of Hepatic-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao UniversityDepartment of Hepatic-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Henan Cancer HospitalDepartment of Hepatic-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical UniversityThe First Affiliated Hospital of Third Military Medical UniversityDepartment of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Affiliated Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyDepartment of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Affiliated Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyAbstract Purposes To establish a scoring model for the risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). Methods PD Patients from 7 institutions in 2 independent sets: developmental (n = 457) and validation cohort (n = 152) were retrospectively enrolled and analyzed. Pancreatic Fibrosis (PF) and Pancreatic Steatosis (PS) were assessed by pathological examination of the pancreatic stump. Results Stepwise univariate and multivariate analysis indicated that pancreatic duct diameter ≤ 3 mm, increased PS and decreased PF were independent risk factors for POPF and Clinically Relevant Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula (CR-POPF). Based on the relative weight and odds ratio of each factor in the POPF, a simplified scoring model was developed. And patients were stratified into high-risk group (22~28 points), medium-risk group (15~21 points) and low-risk group (8~14 points). The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated that the Area under the curve for the predictive model was 0.868 and 0.887 in the model design group and the external validation group. Conclusions This study establishes a simplified scoring model based on accurately and quantitatively measuring the PS, PF and pancreatic duct diameter. The scoring model accurately predicted the risk of POPF.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12893-019-0534-4Pancreatic fibrosisPancreatic steatosisPostoperative pancreatic fistulaScoring model |
| spellingShingle | Guo Xingjun Zhu Feng Yang Meiwen Jiang Jianxin He Zheng Gao Jun Huang Tao Zhao Rui Zhang Leida Wang Min Qin Renyi FACS A score model based on pancreatic steatosis and fibrosis and pancreatic duct diameter to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after Pancreatoduodenectomy BMC Surgery Pancreatic fibrosis Pancreatic steatosis Postoperative pancreatic fistula Scoring model |
| title | A score model based on pancreatic steatosis and fibrosis and pancreatic duct diameter to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after Pancreatoduodenectomy |
| title_full | A score model based on pancreatic steatosis and fibrosis and pancreatic duct diameter to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after Pancreatoduodenectomy |
| title_fullStr | A score model based on pancreatic steatosis and fibrosis and pancreatic duct diameter to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after Pancreatoduodenectomy |
| title_full_unstemmed | A score model based on pancreatic steatosis and fibrosis and pancreatic duct diameter to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after Pancreatoduodenectomy |
| title_short | A score model based on pancreatic steatosis and fibrosis and pancreatic duct diameter to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after Pancreatoduodenectomy |
| title_sort | score model based on pancreatic steatosis and fibrosis and pancreatic duct diameter to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy |
| topic | Pancreatic fibrosis Pancreatic steatosis Postoperative pancreatic fistula Scoring model |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12893-019-0534-4 |
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