The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments
We examine the impact of model horizontal resolution on simulated concentrations of surface ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>), and the associated health impacts over Europe, using the HadGEM3–UKCA chemistry–climate...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2018-04-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/5765/2018/acp-18-5765-2018.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818130836383334400 |
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| author | S. Fenech S. Fenech R. M. Doherty C. Heaviside C. Heaviside C. Heaviside S. Vardoulakis H. L. Macintyre H. L. Macintyre F. M. O'Connor |
| author_facet | S. Fenech S. Fenech R. M. Doherty C. Heaviside C. Heaviside C. Heaviside S. Vardoulakis H. L. Macintyre H. L. Macintyre F. M. O'Connor |
| author_sort | S. Fenech |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We examine the impact of model horizontal resolution on simulated
concentrations of surface ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) and particulate matter less than
2.5 µm in diameter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>), and the associated health impacts
over Europe, using the HadGEM3–UKCA chemistry–climate model to simulate
pollutant concentrations at a coarse (∼ 140 km) and a finer
(∼ 50 km) resolution. The attributable fraction (AF) of total
mortality due to long-term exposure to warm season daily maximum 8 h running
mean (MDA8) O<sub>3</sub> and annual-average PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations is then
calculated for each European country using pollutant concentrations simulated
at each resolution. Our results highlight a seasonal variation in simulated
O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> differences between the two model resolutions in
Europe. Compared to the finer resolution results, simulated European O<sub>3</sub>
concentrations at the coarse resolution are higher on average in winter and
spring (∼ 10 and ∼ 6 %, respectively). In contrast, simulated
O<sub>3</sub> concentrations at the coarse resolution are lower in summer and
autumn (∼ −1 and ∼ −4 %, respectively). These differences
may be partly explained by differences in nitrogen dioxide (NO<sub>2</sub>)
concentrations simulated at the two resolutions. Compared to O<sub>3</sub>, we find
the opposite seasonality in simulated PM<sub>2.5</sub> differences between the two
resolutions. In winter and spring, simulated PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations are
lower at the coarse compared to the finer resolution (∼ −8 and
∼ −6 %, respectively) but higher in summer and autumn (∼ 29
and ∼ 8 %, respectively). Simulated PM<sub>2.5</sub> values are also
mostly related to differences in convective rainfall between the two
resolutions for all seasons. These differences between the two resolutions
exhibit clear spatial patterns for both pollutants that vary by season, and
exert a strong influence on country to country variations in estimated AF for
the two resolutions. Warm season MDA8 O<sub>3</sub> levels are higher in most of
southern Europe, but lower in areas of northern and eastern Europe when
simulated at the coarse resolution compared to the finer resolution.
Annual-average PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations are higher across most of northern
and eastern Europe but lower over parts of southwest Europe at the coarse
compared to the finer resolution. Across Europe, differences in the AF
associated with long-term exposure to population-weighted MDA8 O<sub>3</sub> range
between −0.9 and +2.6 % (largest positive differences in southern
Europe), while differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to
population-weighted annual mean PM<sub>2.5</sub> range from −4.7 to +2.8 %
(largest positive differences in eastern Europe) of the total mortality.
Therefore this study, with its unique focus on Europe, demonstrates that
health impact assessments calculated using modelled pollutant concentrations,
are sensitive to a change in model resolution by up to ∼ ±5 %
of the total mortality across Europe. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T08:11:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ab4c9b1586d246dc86a5a8ec2b11326b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T08:11:22Z |
| publishDate | 2018-04-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-ab4c9b1586d246dc86a5a8ec2b11326b2022-12-22T01:14:52ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242018-04-01185765578410.5194/acp-18-5765-2018The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessmentsS. Fenech0S. Fenech1R. M. Doherty2C. Heaviside3C. Heaviside4C. Heaviside5S. Vardoulakis6H. L. Macintyre7H. L. Macintyre8F. M. O'Connor9School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKCentre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, UKSchool of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKCentre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, UKSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UKDepartment of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UKInstitute of Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh, UKCentre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, UKSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UKMet Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKWe examine the impact of model horizontal resolution on simulated concentrations of surface ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>), and the associated health impacts over Europe, using the HadGEM3–UKCA chemistry–climate model to simulate pollutant concentrations at a coarse (∼ 140 km) and a finer (∼ 50 km) resolution. The attributable fraction (AF) of total mortality due to long-term exposure to warm season daily maximum 8 h running mean (MDA8) O<sub>3</sub> and annual-average PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations is then calculated for each European country using pollutant concentrations simulated at each resolution. Our results highlight a seasonal variation in simulated O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> differences between the two model resolutions in Europe. Compared to the finer resolution results, simulated European O<sub>3</sub> concentrations at the coarse resolution are higher on average in winter and spring (∼ 10 and ∼ 6 %, respectively). In contrast, simulated O<sub>3</sub> concentrations at the coarse resolution are lower in summer and autumn (∼ −1 and ∼ −4 %, respectively). These differences may be partly explained by differences in nitrogen dioxide (NO<sub>2</sub>) concentrations simulated at the two resolutions. Compared to O<sub>3</sub>, we find the opposite seasonality in simulated PM<sub>2.5</sub> differences between the two resolutions. In winter and spring, simulated PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations are lower at the coarse compared to the finer resolution (∼ −8 and ∼ −6 %, respectively) but higher in summer and autumn (∼ 29 and ∼ 8 %, respectively). Simulated PM<sub>2.5</sub> values are also mostly related to differences in convective rainfall between the two resolutions for all seasons. These differences between the two resolutions exhibit clear spatial patterns for both pollutants that vary by season, and exert a strong influence on country to country variations in estimated AF for the two resolutions. Warm season MDA8 O<sub>3</sub> levels are higher in most of southern Europe, but lower in areas of northern and eastern Europe when simulated at the coarse resolution compared to the finer resolution. Annual-average PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations are higher across most of northern and eastern Europe but lower over parts of southwest Europe at the coarse compared to the finer resolution. Across Europe, differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to population-weighted MDA8 O<sub>3</sub> range between −0.9 and +2.6 % (largest positive differences in southern Europe), while differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to population-weighted annual mean PM<sub>2.5</sub> range from −4.7 to +2.8 % (largest positive differences in eastern Europe) of the total mortality. Therefore this study, with its unique focus on Europe, demonstrates that health impact assessments calculated using modelled pollutant concentrations, are sensitive to a change in model resolution by up to ∼ ±5 % of the total mortality across Europe.https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/5765/2018/acp-18-5765-2018.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. Fenech S. Fenech R. M. Doherty C. Heaviside C. Heaviside C. Heaviside S. Vardoulakis H. L. Macintyre H. L. Macintyre F. M. O'Connor The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments |
| title_full | The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments |
| title_fullStr | The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments |
| title_full_unstemmed | The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments |
| title_short | The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments |
| title_sort | influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for europe implications for health impact assessments |
| url | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/5765/2018/acp-18-5765-2018.pdf |
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