Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and Riga
<i>Background and objectives:</i> Despite global warming, the climate in Northern Europe is generally cold, and the large number of deaths due to non-optimal temperatures is likely due to cold temperatures. The aim of the current study is to investigate the association between cold tempe...
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MDPI AG
2019-08-01
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| Series: | Medicina |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1010-660X/55/8/429 |
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| author | Daniel Oudin Åström Triin Veber Žanna Martinsone Darja Kaļužnaja Ene Indermitte Anna Oudin Hans Orru |
| author_facet | Daniel Oudin Åström Triin Veber Žanna Martinsone Darja Kaļužnaja Ene Indermitte Anna Oudin Hans Orru |
| author_sort | Daniel Oudin Åström |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <i>Background and objectives:</i> Despite global warming, the climate in Northern Europe is generally cold, and the large number of deaths due to non-optimal temperatures is likely due to cold temperatures. The aim of the current study is to investigate the association between cold temperatures and all-cause mortality, as well as cause-specific mortality, in Tallinn and Riga in North-Eastern Europe. <i>Materials and Methods:</i> We used daily information on deaths from state death registries and minimum temperatures from November to March over the period 1997−2015 in Tallinn and 2009−2015 in Riga. The relationship between the daily minimum temperature and mortality was investigated using the Poisson regression, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model considering lag times of up to 21 days. <i>Results:</i> We found significantly higher all-cause mortality owing to cold temperatures both in Tallinn (Relative Risk (RR) = 1.28, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.01−1.62) and in Riga (RR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.11−1.79). In addition, significantly increased mortality due to cold temperatures was observed in the 75+ age group (RR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.17−2.31) and in cardiovascular mortality (RR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.31−2.55) in Tallinn and in the under 75 age group in Riga (RR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.12−2.22). In this study, we found no statistically significant relationship between mortality due to respiratory or external causes and cold days. The cold-related attributable fraction (AF) was 7.4% (95% CI -3.7−17.5) in Tallinn and 8.3% (95% CI -0.5−16.3) in Riga. This indicates that a relatively large proportion of deaths in cold periods can be related to cold in North-Eastern Europe, where winters are relatively harsh. |
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| issn | 1010-660X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T08:33:08Z |
| publishDate | 2019-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Medicina |
| spelling | doaj.art-ab647920e2454aca9eca46ef10974d7a2023-09-02T17:29:53ZengMDPI AGMedicina1010-660X2019-08-0155842910.3390/medicina55080429medicina55080429Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and RigaDaniel Oudin Åström0Triin Veber1Žanna Martinsone2Darja Kaļužnaja3Ene Indermitte4Anna Oudin5Hans Orru6Division of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, SwedenInstitute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Ravila 19, 50411 Tartu, EstoniaInstitute of Occupational Safety and Environmental Health, Riga Stradinš University, Dzirciema 16, LV-1007 Riga, LatviaInstitute of Occupational Safety and Environmental Health, Riga Stradinš University, Dzirciema 16, LV-1007 Riga, LatviaInstitute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Ravila 19, 50411 Tartu, EstoniaDivision of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, SwedenDivision of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden<i>Background and objectives:</i> Despite global warming, the climate in Northern Europe is generally cold, and the large number of deaths due to non-optimal temperatures is likely due to cold temperatures. The aim of the current study is to investigate the association between cold temperatures and all-cause mortality, as well as cause-specific mortality, in Tallinn and Riga in North-Eastern Europe. <i>Materials and Methods:</i> We used daily information on deaths from state death registries and minimum temperatures from November to March over the period 1997−2015 in Tallinn and 2009−2015 in Riga. The relationship between the daily minimum temperature and mortality was investigated using the Poisson regression, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model considering lag times of up to 21 days. <i>Results:</i> We found significantly higher all-cause mortality owing to cold temperatures both in Tallinn (Relative Risk (RR) = 1.28, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.01−1.62) and in Riga (RR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.11−1.79). In addition, significantly increased mortality due to cold temperatures was observed in the 75+ age group (RR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.17−2.31) and in cardiovascular mortality (RR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.31−2.55) in Tallinn and in the under 75 age group in Riga (RR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.12−2.22). In this study, we found no statistically significant relationship between mortality due to respiratory or external causes and cold days. The cold-related attributable fraction (AF) was 7.4% (95% CI -3.7−17.5) in Tallinn and 8.3% (95% CI -0.5−16.3) in Riga. This indicates that a relatively large proportion of deaths in cold periods can be related to cold in North-Eastern Europe, where winters are relatively harsh.https://www.mdpi.com/1010-660X/55/8/429temperature-related mortalitydistributed lag non-linear modelscold-related attributable fractionwinter mortalityBalticsall-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality |
| spellingShingle | Daniel Oudin Åström Triin Veber Žanna Martinsone Darja Kaļužnaja Ene Indermitte Anna Oudin Hans Orru Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and Riga Medicina temperature-related mortality distributed lag non-linear models cold-related attributable fraction winter mortality Baltics all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality |
| title | Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and Riga |
| title_full | Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and Riga |
| title_fullStr | Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and Riga |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and Riga |
| title_short | Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and Riga |
| title_sort | mortality related to cold temperatures in two capitals of the baltics tallinn and riga |
| topic | temperature-related mortality distributed lag non-linear models cold-related attributable fraction winter mortality Baltics all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1010-660X/55/8/429 |
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