Urban expansion modeling using Logistic regression method based on Geomod model (Case study: Kordkuy city)
Modeling urban development patterns is an important technique for understanding complex urban growth processes. The present research intends to model temporal and spatial distribution of Kordkuy growth. Therefore, using temporal Landsat satellite images, land use object-based maps for the years 1987...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
| Published: |
University of Sistan and Baluchestan
2018-06-01
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| Series: | جغرافیا و توسعه |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://gdij.usb.ac.ir/article_3875_c258ec5b9629b0bae3334e65655e36f2.pdf |
| Summary: | Modeling urban development patterns is an important technique for understanding complex urban growth processes. The present research intends to model temporal and spatial distribution of Kordkuy growth. Therefore, using temporal Landsat satellite images, land use object-based maps for the years 1987, 2000 and 2015 have been classified. In the next step, using logistic regression model the effective variables in relation to urban growth were studied and based on their quantitative effects, the urban growth potential map was produced. Validation of logistic regression Performance using Pseudo R2 and ROC indexes with respectively values 0.37 and 0.93 for the first period, 0.31 and 0.92 for the second period, 0.39 and 0.93 for the whole of study period, indicates a good fit of the regression. After that, using Geomod analysis and Regression model, urban growth for 2040 was also modeled. The results showed that 333 hectare have been added to residential areas in the total period of study. Agricultural lands and forest areas had the largest share in the increase in urban land area by 306 and 27 hectares of land conversion, respectively. Also satellite imagery classification and land cover prediction results showed that Kordkoy city area is 517 ha in 2015 that area of city will change to 861 hectare in 2040. According to the results, appropriate implementations are needed to control land use changes, particularly urban growth, in order to preserve environmental as well as ecological balances of the area. |
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| ISSN: | 1735-0735 2676-7791 |