Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector
Seasonal forecast systems have demonstrated significant skill in forecasting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent years. This skill is a result of influences that have remote origins, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Here we a...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd8aa |
| _version_ | 1827870376396324864 |
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| author | Anna Maidens Jeff R Knight Adam A Scaife |
| author_facet | Anna Maidens Jeff R Knight Adam A Scaife |
| author_sort | Anna Maidens |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Seasonal forecast systems have demonstrated significant skill in forecasting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent years. This skill is a result of influences that have remote origins, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Here we assess the role of the tropical troposphere and the extra-tropical stratosphere in driving North Atlantic-European wintertime sea level pressure, using numerical experiments in which conditions in these regions are constrained to be similar to observational reanalyses. We show that both of these remote regions play a role in influencing surface circulation. In particular, the East Atlantic Pattern—the second most important mode of regional winter variability after the NAO—is linked to convective anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. Tropical and stratospheric influences are shown to lead to the reproduction of observed large-scale pressure patterns in the majority of winters, but often by a single driver rather than a blend of both. We argue that while stratospheric influences are well represented, tropical influences are underrepresented in winter predictions. These results highlight tropical Atlantic predictability as an important focus for further research. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:56:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-abaf54505d92412a8cb2247b48f376dd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:56:58Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-abaf54505d92412a8cb2247b48f376dd2023-08-09T14:53:35ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116202403510.1088/1748-9326/abd8aaTropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sectorAnna Maidens0Jeff R Knight1Adam A Scaife2Met Office Hadley Centre , Exeter, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre , Exeter, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre , Exeter, United KingdomSeasonal forecast systems have demonstrated significant skill in forecasting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent years. This skill is a result of influences that have remote origins, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Here we assess the role of the tropical troposphere and the extra-tropical stratosphere in driving North Atlantic-European wintertime sea level pressure, using numerical experiments in which conditions in these regions are constrained to be similar to observational reanalyses. We show that both of these remote regions play a role in influencing surface circulation. In particular, the East Atlantic Pattern—the second most important mode of regional winter variability after the NAO—is linked to convective anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. Tropical and stratospheric influences are shown to lead to the reproduction of observed large-scale pressure patterns in the majority of winters, but often by a single driver rather than a blend of both. We argue that while stratospheric influences are well represented, tropical influences are underrepresented in winter predictions. These results highlight tropical Atlantic predictability as an important focus for further research.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd8aaseasonal forecastingNorth Atlantic OscillationEast Atlantic Patternatmospheric relaxationstratosphere |
| spellingShingle | Anna Maidens Jeff R Knight Adam A Scaife Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector Environmental Research Letters seasonal forecasting North Atlantic Oscillation East Atlantic Pattern atmospheric relaxation stratosphere |
| title | Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector |
| title_full | Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector |
| title_fullStr | Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector |
| title_short | Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector |
| title_sort | tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the north atlantic sector |
| topic | seasonal forecasting North Atlantic Oscillation East Atlantic Pattern atmospheric relaxation stratosphere |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd8aa |
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