Holiday gatherings, mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: results from 10 US states following Thanksgiving
Abstract Public health officials discouraged travel and non-household gatherings for Thanksgiving, but data suggests that travel increased over the holidays. The objective of this analysis was to assess associations between holiday gatherings and SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the weeks following Thanksgi...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2021-08-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-96779-6 |
| _version_ | 1818430531399843840 |
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| author | Shruti H. Mehta Steven J. Clipman Amy Wesolowski Sunil S. Solomon |
| author_facet | Shruti H. Mehta Steven J. Clipman Amy Wesolowski Sunil S. Solomon |
| author_sort | Shruti H. Mehta |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Public health officials discouraged travel and non-household gatherings for Thanksgiving, but data suggests that travel increased over the holidays. The objective of this analysis was to assess associations between holiday gatherings and SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the weeks following Thanksgiving. Using an online survey, we sampled 7770 individuals across 10 US states from December 4–18, 2020, about 8–22 days post-Thanksgiving. Participants were asked about Thanksgiving, COVID-19 symptoms, and SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity in the prior 2 weeks. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity and COVID-19 symptoms in the weeks following Thanksgiving. An activity score measured the total number of non-essential activities an individual participated in the prior 2 weeks. The probability of community transmission was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. While 47.2% had Thanksgiving at home with household members, 26.9% had guests and 25.9% traveled. There was a statistically significant interaction between how people spent Thanksgiving, the frequency of activities, and SARS-CoV-2 test positivity in the prior 2 weeks (p < 0.05). Those who had guests for Thanksgiving or traveled were only more likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 if they also had high activity (e.g., participated in > one non-essential activity/day in the prior 2 weeks). Had individuals limited the number and frequency of activities post-Thanksgiving, cases in surveyed individuals would be reduced by > 50%. As travel continues to increase and the more contagious Delta variant starts to dominate transmission, it is critical to promote how to gather in a “low-risk” manner (e.g., minimize other non-essential activities) to mitigate the need for nationwide shelter-at-home orders. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T15:34:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ac2827c4b8974c43ba09e588acb9426f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T15:34:53Z |
| publishDate | 2021-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-ac2827c4b8974c43ba09e588acb9426f2022-12-21T22:55:45ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222021-08-011111910.1038/s41598-021-96779-6Holiday gatherings, mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: results from 10 US states following ThanksgivingShruti H. Mehta0Steven J. Clipman1Amy Wesolowski2Sunil S. Solomon3Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthDepartment of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthAbstract Public health officials discouraged travel and non-household gatherings for Thanksgiving, but data suggests that travel increased over the holidays. The objective of this analysis was to assess associations between holiday gatherings and SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the weeks following Thanksgiving. Using an online survey, we sampled 7770 individuals across 10 US states from December 4–18, 2020, about 8–22 days post-Thanksgiving. Participants were asked about Thanksgiving, COVID-19 symptoms, and SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity in the prior 2 weeks. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity and COVID-19 symptoms in the weeks following Thanksgiving. An activity score measured the total number of non-essential activities an individual participated in the prior 2 weeks. The probability of community transmission was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. While 47.2% had Thanksgiving at home with household members, 26.9% had guests and 25.9% traveled. There was a statistically significant interaction between how people spent Thanksgiving, the frequency of activities, and SARS-CoV-2 test positivity in the prior 2 weeks (p < 0.05). Those who had guests for Thanksgiving or traveled were only more likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 if they also had high activity (e.g., participated in > one non-essential activity/day in the prior 2 weeks). Had individuals limited the number and frequency of activities post-Thanksgiving, cases in surveyed individuals would be reduced by > 50%. As travel continues to increase and the more contagious Delta variant starts to dominate transmission, it is critical to promote how to gather in a “low-risk” manner (e.g., minimize other non-essential activities) to mitigate the need for nationwide shelter-at-home orders.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-96779-6 |
| spellingShingle | Shruti H. Mehta Steven J. Clipman Amy Wesolowski Sunil S. Solomon Holiday gatherings, mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: results from 10 US states following Thanksgiving Scientific Reports |
| title | Holiday gatherings, mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: results from 10 US states following Thanksgiving |
| title_full | Holiday gatherings, mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: results from 10 US states following Thanksgiving |
| title_fullStr | Holiday gatherings, mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: results from 10 US states following Thanksgiving |
| title_full_unstemmed | Holiday gatherings, mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: results from 10 US states following Thanksgiving |
| title_short | Holiday gatherings, mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: results from 10 US states following Thanksgiving |
| title_sort | holiday gatherings mobility and sars cov 2 transmission results from 10 us states following thanksgiving |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-96779-6 |
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