Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China
Abstract As an important woody oilseed species in China, Triadica sebifera is not only concerned with the substitution of traditional energy sources, but also plays a considerable role in coping with energy shortages. Accurately predicting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera i...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-51035-x |
| _version_ | 1797355875036299264 |
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| author | Mei Liu Liyong Yang Miaomiao Su Wei Gong Yibo Liu Jingxuan Yang Yi Huang Cong Zhao |
| author_facet | Mei Liu Liyong Yang Miaomiao Su Wei Gong Yibo Liu Jingxuan Yang Yi Huang Cong Zhao |
| author_sort | Mei Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract As an important woody oilseed species in China, Triadica sebifera is not only concerned with the substitution of traditional energy sources, but also plays a considerable role in coping with energy shortages. Accurately predicting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China and understanding its ecological needs are crucial for alleviating the energy crisis and effectively implementing energy substitution strategies. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China at contemporary and future periods was predicted based on the distribution data of Triadica sebifera in China and the environmental factor variables by Maxent model and ArcGIS software. The combination of important factors governing the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera was assessed by the contribution of environmental factor variables. The accuracy of Maxent model's predictions was assessed by AUC values, TSS values and Kappa statistics. The results show that: High AUC and TSS values indicate high accuracy and performance of the model. The crucial environmental factors limiting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera are the temperature factor (mean air temperature of the driest quarter), precipitation factor (precipitation of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month), and the intensity of human activities (hf). The total suitable area for Triadica sebifera is 233.64 × 104 km2, primarily located in Yunnan, Sichuan, Hubei, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Guangdong province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; its high suitability area is 30.89 × 104 km2, accounting for 13.22% of the total suitable area, mainly distributed in Jiangxi, Sichuan and Hunan provinces in the shape of a cake. Under the four typical greenhouse gas emission concentration patterns in the 2050s and 2070s, the areas of high and medium suitable areas for Triadica sebifera will increase, while the area of its low suitable area will decrease. However, the total suitable area will remain relatively unchanged. Its potential suitable habitats show a trend of shifting towards lower latitudes and southeast regions. The study predicted the pattern of Triadica sebifera under different climate change conditions, which can provide guidance for future cultivation of Triadica sebifera as well as for biofuel development and utilization. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T14:17:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ac4ba06a8c9f4a04a9b182fc2c6bd7ed |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T14:17:28Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-ac4ba06a8c9f4a04a9b182fc2c6bd7ed2024-01-14T12:19:26ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-01-0114111410.1038/s41598-023-51035-xModeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in ChinaMei Liu0Liyong Yang1Miaomiao Su2Wei Gong3Yibo Liu4Jingxuan Yang5Yi Huang6Cong Zhao7Ecological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Mianyang Normal UniversityEcological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Mianyang Normal UniversityTibet Autonomous Region Science and Technology Information InstituteSichuan Academy of Forestry SciencesSichuan Academy of Forestry SciencesEcological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Mianyang Normal UniversityCollege of Ecology and Environment, Tibet UniversityFaulty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong UniversityAbstract As an important woody oilseed species in China, Triadica sebifera is not only concerned with the substitution of traditional energy sources, but also plays a considerable role in coping with energy shortages. Accurately predicting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China and understanding its ecological needs are crucial for alleviating the energy crisis and effectively implementing energy substitution strategies. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China at contemporary and future periods was predicted based on the distribution data of Triadica sebifera in China and the environmental factor variables by Maxent model and ArcGIS software. The combination of important factors governing the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera was assessed by the contribution of environmental factor variables. The accuracy of Maxent model's predictions was assessed by AUC values, TSS values and Kappa statistics. The results show that: High AUC and TSS values indicate high accuracy and performance of the model. The crucial environmental factors limiting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera are the temperature factor (mean air temperature of the driest quarter), precipitation factor (precipitation of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month), and the intensity of human activities (hf). The total suitable area for Triadica sebifera is 233.64 × 104 km2, primarily located in Yunnan, Sichuan, Hubei, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Guangdong province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; its high suitability area is 30.89 × 104 km2, accounting for 13.22% of the total suitable area, mainly distributed in Jiangxi, Sichuan and Hunan provinces in the shape of a cake. Under the four typical greenhouse gas emission concentration patterns in the 2050s and 2070s, the areas of high and medium suitable areas for Triadica sebifera will increase, while the area of its low suitable area will decrease. However, the total suitable area will remain relatively unchanged. Its potential suitable habitats show a trend of shifting towards lower latitudes and southeast regions. The study predicted the pattern of Triadica sebifera under different climate change conditions, which can provide guidance for future cultivation of Triadica sebifera as well as for biofuel development and utilization.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-51035-x |
| spellingShingle | Mei Liu Liyong Yang Miaomiao Su Wei Gong Yibo Liu Jingxuan Yang Yi Huang Cong Zhao Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China Scientific Reports |
| title | Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China |
| title_full | Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China |
| title_short | Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China |
| title_sort | modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species triadica sebifera in response to climate change in china |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-51035-x |
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