Winners and losers of the Sino–US trade war from economic and environmental perspectives
The ongoing trade war between the United States and China is having profound impacts on the global economy. As recent studies have found substantial amounts of carbon dioxide and air pollution embedded in the global supply chains, the Sino–US trade war may also affect emissions and health burdens wo...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3d5 |
| _version_ | 1797747882020831232 |
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| author | Mingxi Du Lulu Chen Jintai Lin Yu Liu Kuishuang Feng Qiuyu Liu Yawen Liu Jingxu Wang Ruijing Ni Yu Zhao Wei Si Ying Li Hao Kong Hongjian Weng Mengyao Liu Jamiu Adetayo Adeniran |
| author_facet | Mingxi Du Lulu Chen Jintai Lin Yu Liu Kuishuang Feng Qiuyu Liu Yawen Liu Jingxu Wang Ruijing Ni Yu Zhao Wei Si Ying Li Hao Kong Hongjian Weng Mengyao Liu Jamiu Adetayo Adeniran |
| author_sort | Mingxi Du |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The ongoing trade war between the United States and China is having profound impacts on the global economy. As recent studies have found substantial amounts of carbon dioxide and air pollution embedded in the global supply chains, the Sino–US trade war may also affect emissions and health burdens worldwide, which remains poorly understood. Here, we estimate the potential changes in gross domestic product (GDP), anthropogenic emissions and particulate matter (PM _2.5 ) related premature deaths worldwide under two Sino–US trade war scenarios. We find that for the US and China, the trade war would reduce their GDP and, less significantly, emissions and mortality, suggesting that the trade war is not an effective means of environmental protection. The trade war would increase both GDP and mortality in many developing regions, because of their increased production of goods targeted in the Sino–US trade war. Surprisingly, Western Europe and Latin America and Caribbean would have higher GDP but lower emissions and mortality, an economic and environmental win-win outcome as a net result of the complex changes in the global supply chains. Neighbour regions of the US and China such as Canada, Japan and Korea would also have higher GDP but lower mortality, because of reduced atmospheric transboundary transport from the US and China overcompensating for increased local emissions of these neighbours. The complex consequences of the Sino–US trade war highlight the strong inter-regional and economic-environmental linkage in support of a global collaborative strategy to foster economic growth and environmental protection. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:56:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ac65075f48c3403aa9f059bd0f3af05f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:56:58Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-ac65075f48c3403aa9f059bd0f3af05f2023-08-09T14:53:16ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115909403210.1088/1748-9326/aba3d5Winners and losers of the Sino–US trade war from economic and environmental perspectivesMingxi Du0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6831-4255Lulu Chen1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8929-3414Jintai Lin2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2362-2940Yu Liu3Kuishuang Feng4Qiuyu Liu5Yawen Liu6Jingxu Wang7Ruijing Ni8Yu Zhao9Wei Si10Ying Li11Hao Kong12Hongjian Weng13Mengyao Liu14Jamiu Adetayo Adeniran15Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University , Beijing 100871, People’s Republic of China; These authors contributed equally to this workLaboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University , Beijing 100871, People’s Republic of China; These authors contributed equally to this workLaboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University , Beijing 100871, People’s Republic of ChinaInstitutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190, People’s Republic of China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100049, People’s Republic of ChinaInstitute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University , Weihai 264209, People’s Republic of China; Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland , College Park, MD, 20742, United States of AmericaDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Quebec at Montreal , Montreal H3C 3P8, CanadaInstitutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100190, People’s Republic of China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100049, People’s Republic of ChinaLaboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University , Beijing 100871, People’s Republic of ChinaLaboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University , Beijing 100871, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of the Environment, Nanjing University , 163 Xianlin Ave, Nanjing 210046, People’s Republic of ChinaCollege of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University , Beijing 100083, People’s Republic of ChinaChina Animal Disease Control Center , Beijing 102600, People’s Republic of ChinaLaboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University , Beijing 100871, People’s Republic of ChinaLaboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University , Beijing 100871, People’s Republic of ChinaRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute , De Bilt, The NetherlandsLaboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University , Beijing 100871, People’s Republic of ChinaThe ongoing trade war between the United States and China is having profound impacts on the global economy. As recent studies have found substantial amounts of carbon dioxide and air pollution embedded in the global supply chains, the Sino–US trade war may also affect emissions and health burdens worldwide, which remains poorly understood. Here, we estimate the potential changes in gross domestic product (GDP), anthropogenic emissions and particulate matter (PM _2.5 ) related premature deaths worldwide under two Sino–US trade war scenarios. We find that for the US and China, the trade war would reduce their GDP and, less significantly, emissions and mortality, suggesting that the trade war is not an effective means of environmental protection. The trade war would increase both GDP and mortality in many developing regions, because of their increased production of goods targeted in the Sino–US trade war. Surprisingly, Western Europe and Latin America and Caribbean would have higher GDP but lower emissions and mortality, an economic and environmental win-win outcome as a net result of the complex changes in the global supply chains. Neighbour regions of the US and China such as Canada, Japan and Korea would also have higher GDP but lower mortality, because of reduced atmospheric transboundary transport from the US and China overcompensating for increased local emissions of these neighbours. The complex consequences of the Sino–US trade war highlight the strong inter-regional and economic-environmental linkage in support of a global collaborative strategy to foster economic growth and environmental protection.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3d5air pollutionatmospheric transportinternational trade |
| spellingShingle | Mingxi Du Lulu Chen Jintai Lin Yu Liu Kuishuang Feng Qiuyu Liu Yawen Liu Jingxu Wang Ruijing Ni Yu Zhao Wei Si Ying Li Hao Kong Hongjian Weng Mengyao Liu Jamiu Adetayo Adeniran Winners and losers of the Sino–US trade war from economic and environmental perspectives Environmental Research Letters air pollution atmospheric transport international trade |
| title | Winners and losers of the Sino–US trade war from economic and environmental perspectives |
| title_full | Winners and losers of the Sino–US trade war from economic and environmental perspectives |
| title_fullStr | Winners and losers of the Sino–US trade war from economic and environmental perspectives |
| title_full_unstemmed | Winners and losers of the Sino–US trade war from economic and environmental perspectives |
| title_short | Winners and losers of the Sino–US trade war from economic and environmental perspectives |
| title_sort | winners and losers of the sino us trade war from economic and environmental perspectives |
| topic | air pollution atmospheric transport international trade |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3d5 |
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