The past, present, and future of predator–prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm–endotherm niche overlap
Abstract Climate change has the potential to disrupt species interactions across global ecosystems. Ectotherm–endotherm interactions may be especially prone to this risk due to the possible mismatch between the species in physiological response and performance. However, few studies have examined how...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.11067 |
| _version_ | 1797244933567938560 |
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| author | Jessica L. Hill Matthew Grisnik Ryan J. Hanscom Jeet Sukumaran Timothy E. Higham Rulon W. Clark |
| author_facet | Jessica L. Hill Matthew Grisnik Ryan J. Hanscom Jeet Sukumaran Timothy E. Higham Rulon W. Clark |
| author_sort | Jessica L. Hill |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change has the potential to disrupt species interactions across global ecosystems. Ectotherm–endotherm interactions may be especially prone to this risk due to the possible mismatch between the species in physiological response and performance. However, few studies have examined how changing temperatures might differentially impact species' niches or available suitable habitat when they have very different modes of thermoregulation. An ideal system for studying this interaction is the predator–prey system. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to characterize the niche overlap and examine biogeography in past and future climate conditions of prairie rattlesnakes (Crotalus viridis) and Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii), an endotherm–ectotherm pair typifying a predator–prey species interaction. Our models show a high niche overlap between these two species (D = 0.863 and I = 0.979) and further affirm similar paleoecological distributions during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid‐Holocene (MH). Under future climate change scenarios, we found that prairie rattlesnakes may experience a reduction in overall suitable habitat (RCP 2.6 = −1.82%, 4.5 = −4.62%, 8.5 = −7.34%), whereas Ord's kangaroo rats may experience an increase (RCP 2.6 = 9.8%, 4.5 = 11.71%, 8.5 = 8.37%). We found a shared trend of stable suitable habitat at northern latitudes but reduced suitability in southern portions of the range, and we propose future monitoring and conservation be focused on those areas. Overall, we demonstrate a biogeographic example of how interacting ectotherm–endotherm species may have mismatched responses under climate change scenarios and the models presented here can serve as a starting point for further investigation into the biogeography of these systems. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T19:18:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-acc02eea263940f4955721f0f061643a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T19:18:53Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-acc02eea263940f4955721f0f061643a2024-03-26T04:26:57ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582024-03-01143n/an/a10.1002/ece3.11067The past, present, and future of predator–prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm–endotherm niche overlapJessica L. Hill0Matthew Grisnik1Ryan J. Hanscom2Jeet Sukumaran3Timothy E. Higham4Rulon W. Clark5Department of Biology San Diego State University San Diego California USADepartment of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Tennessee State University Nashville Tennessee USADepartment of Biology San Diego State University San Diego California USADepartment of Biology San Diego State University San Diego California USADepartment of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology University of California Riverside California USADepartment of Biology San Diego State University San Diego California USAAbstract Climate change has the potential to disrupt species interactions across global ecosystems. Ectotherm–endotherm interactions may be especially prone to this risk due to the possible mismatch between the species in physiological response and performance. However, few studies have examined how changing temperatures might differentially impact species' niches or available suitable habitat when they have very different modes of thermoregulation. An ideal system for studying this interaction is the predator–prey system. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to characterize the niche overlap and examine biogeography in past and future climate conditions of prairie rattlesnakes (Crotalus viridis) and Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii), an endotherm–ectotherm pair typifying a predator–prey species interaction. Our models show a high niche overlap between these two species (D = 0.863 and I = 0.979) and further affirm similar paleoecological distributions during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid‐Holocene (MH). Under future climate change scenarios, we found that prairie rattlesnakes may experience a reduction in overall suitable habitat (RCP 2.6 = −1.82%, 4.5 = −4.62%, 8.5 = −7.34%), whereas Ord's kangaroo rats may experience an increase (RCP 2.6 = 9.8%, 4.5 = 11.71%, 8.5 = 8.37%). We found a shared trend of stable suitable habitat at northern latitudes but reduced suitability in southern portions of the range, and we propose future monitoring and conservation be focused on those areas. Overall, we demonstrate a biogeographic example of how interacting ectotherm–endotherm species may have mismatched responses under climate change scenarios and the models presented here can serve as a starting point for further investigation into the biogeography of these systems.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.11067climate changeecological niche modelingpredator–prey interactionsrattlesnakesmall mammal |
| spellingShingle | Jessica L. Hill Matthew Grisnik Ryan J. Hanscom Jeet Sukumaran Timothy E. Higham Rulon W. Clark The past, present, and future of predator–prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm–endotherm niche overlap Ecology and Evolution climate change ecological niche modeling predator–prey interactions rattlesnake small mammal |
| title | The past, present, and future of predator–prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm–endotherm niche overlap |
| title_full | The past, present, and future of predator–prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm–endotherm niche overlap |
| title_fullStr | The past, present, and future of predator–prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm–endotherm niche overlap |
| title_full_unstemmed | The past, present, and future of predator–prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm–endotherm niche overlap |
| title_short | The past, present, and future of predator–prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm–endotherm niche overlap |
| title_sort | past present and future of predator prey interactions in a warming world using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm endotherm niche overlap |
| topic | climate change ecological niche modeling predator–prey interactions rattlesnake small mammal |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.11067 |
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