Human mortality at extreme age
We use a combination of extreme value statistics, survival analysis and computer-intensive methods to analyse the mortality of Italian and French semi-supercentenarians. After accounting for the effects of the sampling frame, extreme-value modelling leads to the conclusion that constant force of mor...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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The Royal Society
2021-09-01
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| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.202097 |
| _version_ | 1818920269364854784 |
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| author | Léo R. Belzile Anthony C. Davison Holger Rootzén Dmitrii Zholud |
| author_facet | Léo R. Belzile Anthony C. Davison Holger Rootzén Dmitrii Zholud |
| author_sort | Léo R. Belzile |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We use a combination of extreme value statistics, survival analysis and computer-intensive methods to analyse the mortality of Italian and French semi-supercentenarians. After accounting for the effects of the sampling frame, extreme-value modelling leads to the conclusion that constant force of mortality beyond 108 years describes the data well and there is no evidence of differences between countries and cohorts. These findings are consistent with use of a Gompertz model and with previous analysis of the International Database on Longevity and suggest that any physical upper bound for the human lifespan is so large that it is unlikely to be approached. Power calculations make it implausible that there is an upper bound below 130 years. There is no evidence of differences in survival between women and men after age 108 in the Italian data and the International Database on Longevity, but survival is lower for men in the French data. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T01:19:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-acef4cd259d64c169bd3ec3b10c987e2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2054-5703 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T01:19:04Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | The Royal Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Royal Society Open Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-acef4cd259d64c169bd3ec3b10c987e22022-12-21T19:58:30ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032021-09-018910.1098/rsos.202097Human mortality at extreme ageLéo R. Belzile0Anthony C. Davison1Holger Rootzén2Dmitrii Zholud3Department of Decision Sciences, HEC Montréal, 3000, chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine, Montréal, Quebec, Canada H3T 2A7Institute of Mathematics, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne, Station 8, Lausanne 1015, SwitzerlandDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers and Gothenburg University, Chalmers Tvärgata 3, Göteborg 41296, SwedenDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers and Gothenburg University, Chalmers Tvärgata 3, Göteborg 41296, SwedenWe use a combination of extreme value statistics, survival analysis and computer-intensive methods to analyse the mortality of Italian and French semi-supercentenarians. After accounting for the effects of the sampling frame, extreme-value modelling leads to the conclusion that constant force of mortality beyond 108 years describes the data well and there is no evidence of differences between countries and cohorts. These findings are consistent with use of a Gompertz model and with previous analysis of the International Database on Longevity and suggest that any physical upper bound for the human lifespan is so large that it is unlikely to be approached. Power calculations make it implausible that there is an upper bound below 130 years. There is no evidence of differences in survival between women and men after age 108 in the Italian data and the International Database on Longevity, but survival is lower for men in the French data.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.202097exponential hazardextreme value theorysemi-supercentenarian |
| spellingShingle | Léo R. Belzile Anthony C. Davison Holger Rootzén Dmitrii Zholud Human mortality at extreme age Royal Society Open Science exponential hazard extreme value theory semi-supercentenarian |
| title | Human mortality at extreme age |
| title_full | Human mortality at extreme age |
| title_fullStr | Human mortality at extreme age |
| title_full_unstemmed | Human mortality at extreme age |
| title_short | Human mortality at extreme age |
| title_sort | human mortality at extreme age |
| topic | exponential hazard extreme value theory semi-supercentenarian |
| url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.202097 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT leorbelzile humanmortalityatextremeage AT anthonycdavison humanmortalityatextremeage AT holgerrootzen humanmortalityatextremeage AT dmitriizholud humanmortalityatextremeage |