REAL ESTATE MARKET IN UKRAINE: TRENDS OF DEVELOPMENT AND CHALLENGES
The development of the real estate market in Ukraine has a positive impact on the economy, contributes to the activation of the banking sector, investment and employment growth, and improvement of living conditions, which, in turn, alleviates social problems. The aim of the article is to study the...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Universytet imeni Alfreda Nobelya
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Akademičnij Oglâd |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://acadrev.duan.edu.ua/images/PDF/2023/2/14.pdf |
| Summary: | The development of the real estate market in Ukraine has a positive impact on the economy, contributes to the activation of the banking sector, investment and employment growth, and improvement
of living conditions, which, in turn, alleviates social problems. The aim of the article is to study the components of the development of the real estate market in Ukraine. In the course of the work, various general scientific and special research methods were applied, including inductive and deductive
methods used to analyze the construction output, GDP, and the consumer price index. With the help of
economic analysis and comparison, an analysis of interest rates on deposits in hryvnia and foreign currency for 2005-2020 was carried out. The method of correlation-regression analysis was used to study
the relationships between the main influencing factors and the resultant factor (the volume of Ukraine’s
real estate market). The graphical method was used to visually represent the results of the study. The
abstract-logical method was used for theoretical generalizations and drawing conclusions.
The authors analyzed the real estate market in Ukraine and revealed a trend of growth in its capacity in value terms during 2010-2019 and a decrease in 2020 compared to the previous year. To forecast
the capacity of this market, it is important to identify the determinants that affect its development. A
multiple regression linear econometric model was used to quantitatively assess the impact of different factors on the development of Ukraine’s real estate market. The construction output (residential
buildings) in value terms was taken as a resultant factor. Consumer income, housing investment, and
divorce rate were taken as factors influencing it. Based on research, it was found that from 2005 to 2020
consumer income increased by 3.6 times, and in 2020 by 6.1%. This is one of the indicators among
the respondents, which had a positive trend over the past year. According to the results of research for
2019-2020, investments in housing construction, the number of divorces, and interest rates on mortgage loans in UAH for 2020 decreased by 39.9%, 13.2%, and 0.6 points respectively. Examining these
indicators for 2005-2020, we can say that only the number of divorces decreased by 5%. All other
indicators increased: interest rates on mortgage loans — by 18.2%, consumer incomes — by 35.5%,
and the construction output (residential buildings) — by 4 times.
Based on the coefficient of determination, F-test, and von Neumann criterion, it was established
that the constructed multiple econometric models are adequate for the statistical data of the population
and can be used for further analysis of the economic process. To study the influence of factors on the
construction output, partial coefficients of elasticity were analyzed. Based on the performed calculations, it was found that the development of the real estate market in Ukraine is primarily influenced by
an increase in consumer income and their investments in residential construction, with a 1% increase
leading to a 1.008% and 0.248% increase, respectively, in the construction output (residential buildings) in the real estate market of Ukraine. However, the conditions of the war, the decrease in the
income level of the Ukrainian population, decrease in the real estate investments, and the destruction
of a significant number of residential and non-residential premises have had a negative impact on the
studied market. Its activation is expected in the post-war period — the period of restoration of Ukraine. |
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| ISSN: | 2074-5354 2522-9745 |