The impact of COVID-19 on the intention of third-child in China: an empirical analysis based on survey data
Abstract Background Against the grim background of declining intention to have children, the ravages of COVID-19 have pushed China and the world into a more complex social environment. To adapt to the new situation, the Chinese government implemented the three-child policy in 2021. Objective COVID-1...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-06-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15944-w |
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| author | Zi Li Siwen Qian |
| author_facet | Zi Li Siwen Qian |
| author_sort | Zi Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Against the grim background of declining intention to have children, the ravages of COVID-19 have pushed China and the world into a more complex social environment. To adapt to the new situation, the Chinese government implemented the three-child policy in 2021. Objective COVID-19 pandemic indirectly affects the country's internal economic development, employment, fertility plans or intention, and other major issues related to the people's livelihood, while undermining the stable operation of society. This paper explores the question that will COVID-19 pandemic affect Chinese people's intention to have a third child. And What are the relevant factors inside? Method The data in this paper are from the Survey released by the Population Policy and Development Research Center of Chongqing Technology and Business University (PDPR-CTBU), including 10,323 samples from mainland China. This paper uses the logit regression model and KHB mediated effect model (a binary response model given by Karlson, Holm, and Breen) to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors on Chinese residents' intention to have a third child. Results The results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative effect on Chinese residents' intention to have a third child. In-depth research on the mediating effect of KHB shows that COVID-19 pandemic will further inhibit residents' intention to have a third child by affecting their childcare arrangements, increasing their childcare costs, and increasing their exposure to occupational hazards. Contribution This paper is more pioneering in focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the intention to have three children in China. The study provides empirical evidence for understanding the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on fertility intentions, albeit in the context of policy support. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:18:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ad04e6854234479d8e295037a779bdd0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:18:25Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-ad04e6854234479d8e295037a779bdd02023-06-25T11:31:35ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582023-06-0123111410.1186/s12889-023-15944-wThe impact of COVID-19 on the intention of third-child in China: an empirical analysis based on survey dataZi Li0Siwen Qian1Department of Public Administration, Chongqing Technology and Business UniversityDepartment of Public Administration, Chongqing Technology and Business UniversityAbstract Background Against the grim background of declining intention to have children, the ravages of COVID-19 have pushed China and the world into a more complex social environment. To adapt to the new situation, the Chinese government implemented the three-child policy in 2021. Objective COVID-19 pandemic indirectly affects the country's internal economic development, employment, fertility plans or intention, and other major issues related to the people's livelihood, while undermining the stable operation of society. This paper explores the question that will COVID-19 pandemic affect Chinese people's intention to have a third child. And What are the relevant factors inside? Method The data in this paper are from the Survey released by the Population Policy and Development Research Center of Chongqing Technology and Business University (PDPR-CTBU), including 10,323 samples from mainland China. This paper uses the logit regression model and KHB mediated effect model (a binary response model given by Karlson, Holm, and Breen) to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors on Chinese residents' intention to have a third child. Results The results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative effect on Chinese residents' intention to have a third child. In-depth research on the mediating effect of KHB shows that COVID-19 pandemic will further inhibit residents' intention to have a third child by affecting their childcare arrangements, increasing their childcare costs, and increasing their exposure to occupational hazards. Contribution This paper is more pioneering in focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the intention to have three children in China. The study provides empirical evidence for understanding the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on fertility intentions, albeit in the context of policy support.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15944-wCOVID-19FertilityIntentionLogit modelMediation analysisChina |
| spellingShingle | Zi Li Siwen Qian The impact of COVID-19 on the intention of third-child in China: an empirical analysis based on survey data BMC Public Health COVID-19 Fertility Intention Logit model Mediation analysis China |
| title | The impact of COVID-19 on the intention of third-child in China: an empirical analysis based on survey data |
| title_full | The impact of COVID-19 on the intention of third-child in China: an empirical analysis based on survey data |
| title_fullStr | The impact of COVID-19 on the intention of third-child in China: an empirical analysis based on survey data |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of COVID-19 on the intention of third-child in China: an empirical analysis based on survey data |
| title_short | The impact of COVID-19 on the intention of third-child in China: an empirical analysis based on survey data |
| title_sort | impact of covid 19 on the intention of third child in china an empirical analysis based on survey data |
| topic | COVID-19 Fertility Intention Logit model Mediation analysis China |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15944-w |
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